Oct. 31, 2008 - 16 Greene Street closes around $1,000/ft, twice

Soho on the cheap, with reason
I noticed yesterday that the Manhattan loft #5N at 16 Greene Street was newly updated in our system as Sold & Closed, but no clearing price was visible yet in city records. But when I checked for #5N I saw that #4S closed there recently, with a deed filed September 2 for $1.415mm. Then I checked again this morning and there it was: the deed for #5N was filed on October 24 for $2.1mm. Quick work ACRIS!

#4S was said to be "1,400 sq ft" and was billed as a "bright renovated classic loft in historic cast-iron building", with a chef's kitchen, set up as a 1 bedroom (plus office/nrusery) and (only) 1 bath. Only 10 feet wide on the back (maser bedroom) and 17 feet wide on front (living room), the main photo presents a 'bowling alley' feel. (Dark floors adn white walls and furnishings were definitely a good idea, with only two windows at each end.)

#4S was new to market in January at $1.55mm, dropped to $1.495mm and found a contract in July.

My draft of yesterday said "#5N won't have done too much better than the price-per-foot of #4S, as it is said to be "2,070 sq ft" and was asking $2.1mm (this was a quick sale: offered pn Jluy 3 and in contract by July 25)" but the "quick sale" did yeield the asking price of $2.1mm (as noted above). I don't know if I have ever seen the locution "actual bedrooms" in a loft listing before, but here is the description: "This mint home has central air conditioning and has been architect designed incorporating actual bedrooms and separate living spaces while maintaining the integrity of the loft." You can see pix on the StreetEasy grab, here. Those 2 "actual." bedrooms ara in the back in the classic Long-and-Narrow array (the good news is that the North lofts in the building are 22+ feet in width at the back). With 3 windows in back and only 2 in front (the loft is billed as 92 feet long), there's a long way between windows -- good thing they are large windows.

how much renovation of #5N?
#5N changed hands in March 2006 for $1.65mm (off an ask of $1.795mm); then being sold as "in very nice condition" (that listing from Corcoran is here ). The 2006 pix show me a fairly primitive condition, but walls and plumbing apparently in the same places as in the 2008 sale. Hard to say from the descriptions and pictures how much renovation was done in between.

The building is old for a coop down there (mid-1970s conversion?), with rather low maintenance -- $999/mo for the larger #5N and only $795/mo for #4S. Especially with that low maintenance burden, $1,000/ft for "a Soho loft" seems low, right? But we are not talking prime Soho here. The building is nearly at the corner of Canal Street, which is a very gritty (hard) border with not-the-most-charming-part-of-Tribeca. Lots of car traffic zigging north from where Chruch Street "T"s into Canal; pain in the butt to get in front of 16 Greene by car or taxi, having to come from Canal Street....

in the Manhattan Loft Guy way-back machine
Astute readers will recall that I have hit this building before. Way back in March I posted about #4S in a post titled "16 Greene Price drops but still crowded", but took that content down in The Purge of April 9. From the archives, here is what that post said:

The link to the earlier January 22 post should still work, in which I hit #4S when it was new to market.

That's what you can get in Soho for $1,000 a foot.

Oct. 29, 2008 - rule breaking over celeb loft for sale at 142 West 26 Street

two Manhattan Loft Guy rules broker, for the price of one
I usually don't identify the current owners of Manhattan lofts for sale, or current residents in a building, out of respect for their privacy. And I usually don't comment on active listings from other firms (some of you may not remember this, end of an era for Manhattan Loft Guy / a new day dawns? from April 9). But I will make an exception in each case here, for reasons that should be obvious.

Curbed linked to a NY Magazine piece about CNN reporter Soledad O'Brien's loft being on the market for $4.6mm, with a video tour with reporter S. Jhoanna Robledo and BHS agents Russell Miller and Mary Beth Flynn. With the NY Mag coverage and the video tour, they are evidently trying to sell the apartment, so I will identify it with a clean conscience as the 5th floor at 142 West 26 Street (BHS web listing here).

Oct. 28, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of October 26

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night: 
 

This is up 13 in a week (following last week's first [mild] inventory drop in 6 weeks) while -- again -- obviously very well above my benchmark (my first count on May 19 was 745). 

See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Oct. 26, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were only 21 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and only 16 as sold -- a second consecutive week of very slow action in a long time -- and nearly all the new listings in resales
• 12 of the 21 new ones are offered between $1mm and $3mm, while 7 of the 9 closed sales were between $1mm and $3mm
• only 1 of the 21 new loft listings is in new development, but 9 of the 16 closed sales are in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 21	Sold = 16
  $500k to $999k	2	5
  $1mm to $1.99mm	3	6
  $2mm to $2.99mm	9	4
  $3mm to $3.99mm	3	1
  $4mm to $4.99mm	1
  $5mm+	3

  
   

  By neighborhood	New = 21	Sold = 16
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	1	2
  Clinton
  East Village	1
  Financial District	2	4
  Flatiron	3
  Gramercy	1
  Greenwich Village	3
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side	1
  Morningside Heights		3
  Murray Hill	1
  Midtown East
  Midtown West
  SoHo	2	2
  Sutton Place	1
  Tribeca	4	3
  Turtle Bay	1
  Upper East Side
  Upper West Side		1
  West Village		1

• 
  
   
• New loft listings in new developments

• 1 York Street (One York)

  1

   
• 
  
   
• Sold lofts in new developments 

  
  

  20 West Street (Downtown Club)	3
  90 William Street (be@William)	1
  247 West 115 Street (Delany Lofts)	3
  25 Murray Street (Tribeca Space)	1
  101 Warren Street	1

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most recent rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Oct. 24, 2008 - a telling trajectory? 47 Walker Street sells on 2d floor

what a difference two years make
The Manhattan loft one flight of stairs up at 47 Walker Street #2B has closed. They started in February, asking $1.695mm for "1,830 sq ft", dropped twice to get to $1.595mm by the end of June and found a contract 5 weeks later. (6 weeks is a pretty quick closing for a coop.)

The marketing was all about 'soul' and 'volume' (as yoiu will see in a bit, these guys corner the market on 'soulful' marketing) and the "Viking, Subzero, Miele Appliances" you could put in (I am not kidding), so this one sounds like a fairly primitive loft. (Check out the part of the web listing that still survives on StreetEasy, here; the building link is here.)

I saw this a month ago when it was updated in our system as closed, but the clearing price has not been public until more recently. The deed was filed September 18 and the price was $1.56mm. That's $852/ft.

a bit of historical context
One more flight upstairs, #3A closed in October 2006 at $1.27mm -- $75k over the asking price -- for "1,350 sq ft". StreetEasy has the surviving part of that listing here; you will see an even more exuberant* listing description (ahh, the go-go days of that market ...), the requisite "soul" clause, and no bragging about finishses (just about bones and character). So, that one sounds like it was in a simialrly primitive state as #2B, but one more flight up the stairs.

That was $941/ft for #3A two years ago.

While these two sales are not exactly comparable, they are awfully close. They would appeal to different Manhattan loft buyers because the second floor unit is said to be 500 sq ft larger, but in both cases most buyers would expect to put in money to update, if not fully renovate. In both cases, the lack of an elevator shrinks the buying pool (the third floor should have had more shrinkage here). Being in the same building, there should have been no difference in value for being in nearby-but-NOT-prime Tribeca (the block between Broadway and Church).

Time has not been kind to values in htis building.

agents having fun (nothing wrong with that)
*Exuberant? Here's the full listing descrition for #3A from 2006 from the inter-frim data base (no boring broker-babble for these guys):

Oct. 21, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of October 19

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night: 
 

This is down 4 in a week (mild, yes, but the first inventory drop in 6 weeks) while -- again -- obviously very well above my benchmark (my first count on May 19 was 745). 

See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Oct. 19, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days This is my fifty-first report on the number, price distribution and neighborhood distribution for Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market or as closed sales in the last 7 days. The s

• there were only 23 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and only 9 as sold -- the slowest action in a long time and nearly all in resales
• 20 of the 23 new ones are offered below $3mm, while 7 of the 9 closed sales were between $1mm and $3mm
• only 4 of the 23 new loft listings are in new development, and 2 of the 9 closed sales is in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 23	Sold = 9
  $500k to $999k	4
  $1mm to $1.99mm	5	3
  $2mm to $2.99mm	11	4
  $3mm to $3.99mm	1	1
  $4mm to $4.99mm		1
  $5mm+	2

  
   

  By neighborhood	New = 23	Sold = 9
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	3	4
  Clinton
  East Village
  Financial District	7	1
  Flatiron	1
  Gramercy	1
  Greenwich Village	1
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side
  Morningside Heights
  Murray Hill
  Midtown East
  Midtown West
  SoHo	4
  Tribeca	4	3
  Turtle Bay	1
  Upper East Side
  Upper West Side		1
  West Village	1

• 
  
   
• New loft listings in new developments

• 90 William Street (be@William)	1
  45 John Street	1
  415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	1
  1 York Street (One York)	1

   
• 
  
   
• Sold lofts in new developments 

  
  

  25 Murray Street (Tribeca Space)	1
  520 West 19 Street (520 West Chelsea)	1

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most recent rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Oct. 15, 2008 - fuggedabowdit (or not) / polite New Yorkers?

There are few generalizations about the 'character' of New York (and its denizens) that are more (... well ...) general than the image of the irascible New Yorker -- too busy running slow-moving out-of-town pedestrians over to offer directions, or even a smile. Or to hold a door. Or to help pick up your dropped papers. I will admit to feeling a bit of rueful recognition (through clenched teeth) when I see one of those fugly T-shirts hanging from a pole in touristy shops:

. (What's

favorite New Yorker rudeness story?)

The good folks at Reader's Digest are having none of it, as they set out to measure how polite 36 different cities are. New York is the only US city on their list, so Minneapolis may still have something to say, but the list of 36 global cities touched every inhabited continent. Their unscientific survey measured reactions to 3 situations: whether people entering a building held the door for the person trailing them; whether they helped someone pick up papers dropped on a busy sidewalk; and whether shopkeepers said thank you to people making small purchases.

New York not only out-paced cities such as Zurich, London, Paris, Auckland and Montreal, we kicked the proverbial rear-ends of Mumbai, Moscow and Helsinki.

is from the website of the Canadian Reader's Digest.

I think the Canadians were surprised by the results:

Fuggedabowdit!

(hat tip to

of The Atlantic Monthly)

Oct. 13, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of October 12

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night: 
 

This is up 20 in a week (up 157 in 5 weeks) and -- again -- obviously very well above my benchmark (my first count on May 19 was 745). Repeat after me "Fall Market inventory is beginning to bulge"??

See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Oct. 12, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were 39 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and only 16 as sold -- nearly all of the action in resales
• 31 of the 39 new ones are offered below $3mm, while 9 of the 16 closed sales were below $2mm
• only 1 of the 39 new loft listings is in new development, and only 1 of the 16 closed sales is in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 39	Sold = 16
  $500k to $999k	8	3
  $1mm to $1.99mm	14	6
  $2mm to $2.99mm	9	2
  $3mm to $3.99mm	5	3
  $4mm to $4.99mm
  $5mm+	3	2

  
   

  By neighborhood	New = 39	Sold = 16
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	5	1
  Clinton
  East Village
  Financial District	2	1
  Flatiron	2	1
  Gramercy	2	3
  Greenwich Village	6	3
  Kips Bay	1
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side		2
  Morningside Heights
  Murray Hill	3
  Midtown East
  Midtown West	1
  SoHo	3	1
  Tribeca	4	3
  Turtle Bay	1
  Upper East Side	2
  Upper West Side	1	1
  West Village	6

• 
  
   
• New loft listings in new developments

• 1 York Street (One York)

  1

   
• 
  
   
• Sold lofts in new developments 

  
  

  75 Ludlow Street (Ludlow Lofts)

  2

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most recent rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Oct. 10, 2008 - what springs eternal? hope, renovation, or ...hubris?

careful post about a new listing
Yeah, I know I am not supposed to blog about current listings from other firms (if you're new here, check out end of an era for Manhattan Loft Guy / a new day dawns? from April 9 for that story), so I will do this carefully and cryptically. (And ethically.)

I came across a new Manhattan loft listing recently that looked kind of familiar. Our ever-so-irritating inter-firm data base shows that this condo loft had been on the market in 2007 at around $1,200/ft but was "permanently off the market" in the Summer of 2007. Now it is 'new' with a different firm and agent at over $1,400/ft. Hmmm ... that seems a bit brassy, doesn't it?

not so brassy, but what happened here?
Further digging in city records showed that the loft had not been 'taken off the market' last Summer, but had actually sold. For about $1,100/ft. Which seemed brassier still, until I checked the pix and descriptions from the new listing against the old one -- the loft has definitely been renovated. City records show a building permit having been issued soon after the sale data for a job estimated to be $30,000 that is probably for this unit, though the renovation looks far more extensive than that.

what did they spend?
So instead of doing a blog post along the lines of what-were-they-thinking?, as originally drove me, this will just be  a note that I will track this listing with interest. I hope that it sells so that I can explain this better, but for now I can only wonder how much they put into the unit in renovation to seek to generate more than $300/ft over last Summer's purchase price.

This sounds like one of those eight million stories (perhaps of the Lehamn Brothers variety?): happy buyers acquire cool loft at a bit of a discount from the asking price, then immediately set out to do a major renvoation (the condition when they bought it was ceratinly more than 'live in' based on the prior listing description, but apparently not what they envisioned). Then ... something happened and off to market they go.

Interesting times, no?

Oct. 9, 2008 - one year to a lovely sale at Atalanta, 25 N. Moore Street, two years after lovely buy

NY Post scoops inter-firm data base
Today's Just Sold feature in the NY Post includes a Manhattan loft closed sale that has not yet been updated in the inter-firm data base, which is the kind of record-keeping sloppiness tolerated by REBNY that screws up data tracking. In other words, whenever the listing agent gets around to updating the inter-firm data base, this sale will show up (late) in my weekly review of new lsitings and closed sales in the last seven days. Arrgghhhh.

but that's not the point
The real news here is that the Manhattan loft Unit 2A at The Atalanta, 25 N. Moore Street, closed with a deed filed on September 8. Here's the description from the Post (likely cribbed from the agent for the buyer, since the [unmentioned] seller's agent was Gabrielle Frank of Halstead):

TRIBECA $3,100,000

25 N. Moore St.

Prewar one-bedroom, two-bath condo, 2,800 square feet, with 10 original columns, 70-foot-long living area, stainless-steel kitchen appliances, walk-in closet, master bath with double sinks and sunken whirlpool, washer/dryer and central AC; Atalanta building features doorman, roof deck and storage. Common charges $1,353, taxes $1,655. Asking price $3,300,000, on market 51 weeks. Broker: Sharon McGrail, Bond New York

Our database shows this came to market September 23, 2007 at $3.3mm and twice had accepted offers that fell through (in December and April) before getting the signed contract in June that just closed.

steady seller made out VERY well
Through all that marketing the seller held firm in price at $3.3mm and ended up with a sale at 94% of the list price. Not a bad deal for that long a wait.

How much of "not a bad deal"? Considering that the September 2008 seller at $3.1mm bought in September 2006 for $2.3mm, I'd say that is a pretty sweet deal, indeed.

I don't get that September 2006 purchase price -- $821/ft -- so I wonder if that was some kind of distress deal. The September 2006 seller was an LLC, and city records show a lis pendens as early as 2002, but that price is rather low, even for a second floor unit with a less than ideal layout (windows only on the south wall). In contrast, the unit next door that has windows on the south and east sides (#2B) is much smaller, at "2,045 sq ft", but sold in September 2007 (not everything at Atalanta happens in Sptember, it just seems that way) for $3mm -- $1,466/ft.

Nonetheless, the #2A seller was (a) stubborn at holding to the asking price for nine months and (b) well compensated in grossing more than 130% of his two year purchase price.

Oct. 7, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of October 5

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night: 
 

This is up 20 in a week (up 137 in 4 weeks) and obvioulsy very well above my benchmark (my first count on May 19 was 745). Repeat after me "Fall Market inventory is beginning to bulge"??

See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Oct. 6, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were 39 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 21 as sold -- with most of the action in resales
• 26 of the 39 new ones are offered below $3mm, while 17 of the 21 closed sales were below $3mm
• only 3 of the 39 new loft listings are in new development, while 5 of the 21 closed sales are in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 39	Sold = 21
  $500k to $999k	7	7
  $1mm to $1.99mm	14	5
  $2mm to $2.99mm	6	5
  $3mm to $3.99mm	3	3
  $4mm to $4.99mm	3	1
  $5mm+	6

  
   

  By neighborhood	New = 39	Sold = 21
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	3	3
  Clinton		1
  East Village	1
  Financial District	6	3
  Flatiron	3	2
  Gramercy
  Greenwich Village	8	1
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side
  Morningside Heights
  Murray Hill		2
  Midtown East		1
  Midtown West
  SoHo	7	1
  Tribeca	8	4
  Turtle Bay	1
  Upper East Side	1	2
  Upper West Side
  West Village	1	1

• 
  
   
• New loft listings in new developments

• 1 York Street (One York)	1
  415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	1
  475 Greenwich Street (Zinc)	1

   
• 
  
   
• Sold lofts in new developments 

  
  

  20 Pine Street	2
  11 East 36 Street (Morgan Lofts)	2
  475 Greenwich Street (Zinc)	1

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most recent rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Oct. 2, 2008 - Manhattan as 'different' (not unique) / counting geniuses + immigrants

a reflection, not a rigorous analysis
I am not a card-carrying member of the Manhattan Is Unique So Real Estate Price Will Never Come Down party, but I have audited classes in the Manhattan Market Is Different school.

I noted with interest an article about the number of MacArthur Foundation grants to Manhattan residents when the NY Times reported on that last week (September 26: A Genius on Every Block? No, but It Seems That Way), which lead to the kernel of an idea about a blog post, which got overlooked in the press of the Business and Life Continuum. I was thinking aboutabout how this article about Manhattan-as-magnet-for-talent had real estate relevance. posting

But what spurred me to actually use bandwidth and time to address this was this piece reported yesterday on-line in the national REALTOR® rag (and sourced to Forbes) about some cities losingtheir attraction for immigrants (Where the Melting Pot Has Frozen). Sort of the other side (or another side) of the same coin.

on the one hand, a draw
Clyde Haberman of the Times points out that

As Haberman explains about these so-called "genius" grants, MacArthur officials frown on the word “genius,” leaving it to journalists and assorted other hacks. Rather, the foundation says that it looks for women and men who are able to “transcend traditional boundaries,” who are risk-takers even in the face of obstacles, who can “synthesize disparate ideas and approaches.”

I have said repeatedly the one of the things that makes our local real estate market different from others is that Manhattan has always been a magnet for creativity, ambition and entrepreneurship. In the context of a city deemed to be safer and more 'livable' by people with huge wealth or income who used to move to the 'burbs, that has definitely helped create demand for scarce Manhattan housing. Add the globalization of wealth and travel to that creativity-ambition-entrepreneurship magnet, and there is yet another different strand increasing demand.

Haberman put it poetically, in historical terms:

(I HEART Clyde.) Note that, in my opinion, neither Boston nor California have other attractions to a global market that Manhattan has.

Of course, these kind of attractions are both ephemeral and fragile. There is no reason to assume that they will continue to make Manhattan a different real estate market indefinitely, and it may be hard to predict when an accumulation of 'bad news' will hurt the Manhattan 'brand' enough to make a significant difference. But I see that situation holding, at least until we see more and deeper bad news on a systemic basis.

(snobbery, admitted
Yes, Haberman talks about MacArthur grants to city residents, rather than to Manhattan residents. But I am enough of a Manhattan snob to assume that the bulk of "city residents" who win these grants are Manhattan-based, either as residents or workers. [Go ahead, prove me wrong.]

I don't think it much matters for my general point, however.)

on the other hand, not so much
Not only do other cities generally lack the creativity-ambition-entrepreneurship magnet that Manhattan has, but other cities are losing the degree to which they are attractive to immigrants at all, at least according to Forbes. As reported on-line by REALTOR.org,

They don't mention New York, which still seems to be a magnet for immigrants based on everything I have read. (No sourcing here, but I recall reading that New York City's recent population growth is entirely attributable to in-migration of foreign-born and increased birth rate among recent immigrants.) But they did count the cities with the lowest percentages of foreign-born residents:

• Pittsburgh, 3.1 percent
• Cincinnati, 3.5 percent
• St. Louis, 4 percent
• Indianapolis, 5.4 percent
• Cleveland, 5.6 percent
• Virginia Beach, Va.. 5.6 percent
• Kansas City, Mo., 5.9 percent
• Columbus, Ohio 6.3 percent
• Nashville, Tenn. 6.7 percent
• Milwaukee, 6.8 percent

Once again, my man Clyde hits it on the nose:

As a footnote, in the endless debate over immigration, you could cite the MacArthur program as evidence that the United States, for all its troubles, remains the place where many of the world’s brightest want to be. This year’s winners, all of whom must be citizens or residents of this country, include people originally from Nigeria, Russia, Croatia, Egypt, Tanzania, England and Canada.

... Nearly all the New York [MacArthur] winners ... came here from somewhere else.

so what?
So, this won't prevent a decline in Manhattan real estate values -- if that is what general and local economic trends have in store for us -- but these related factor do provide some additional (unique?) layer of insulation from the otherwise cold that our market may feel. Call me Pollyanna if you like (so long as you call).