Jul. 31, 2008 - lux diversion / Time Warner or 165 Charles as better "investment"?

not much gain for Portman
Braden Keil's Gimme Shelter grab bag in today's NY Post (hat tip to Curbed for pointing it out) mentions two celebrity Manhattan real estate transactions that caught me eye, though neither involves a real loft. The first 'news' is that Natalie Portman is selling her "convertible three bedroom, three bath apartment" (with "2,500 sq ft") at 165 Charles Street on the market for $6.55mm, but what startled me is that she reportedly paid $5.7mm in 2005. Assuming (big assumption) that she gets full ask now, her net-net gain calculation starts at $850k -- before melting away. Her transaction costs on that sale will be (in round numbers and at a minimum) 5% broker commission (they are offering 2.5% to a buyer agent) and transfer fees to NYC and NYS of 1.825%, or nearly $450k. Assuming she paid transfer taxes on her way in in 2005, that's another 1.825% on that $5.7mm purchase, or another $100k.

So, $550k of her $850k 'gain' is eaten up by round number big ticket transaction costs, whether she paid cash or secured a mortgage and assuming she gets 100% of her asking price on the way out. At least she won't have to worry too much about capital gains taxes....

Costas does well
The contrast to Bob Costas experience at the Time Warner Center (reported in the same column) is remarkable. Costas has already closed on his sale of a 61st floor 3-bedroom for $8.5mm. Like Portman, he bought his unit in 2005, but he paid 'only' $4.95mm, so his net-net gain calculation starts at $3.55mm (four times Portman's if she can sell at 100% of ask) and doesn't melt away much. He will be pleased to pay his significant capital gains, I am sure.

representative values?
I have no idea if these two transactions (actually, one transaction and one marketing effort) are representative of values in their respective buildings. But the 3-year-appreciation contrast is stark: less than a 15% gain for the Stars Wars gal if she gets her ask at 165 Charles Street, vs. 70% for the Sports Guy at the Time Warner Center.

Not that you should look at your home as an investment or anything....

© Sandy Mattingly 2008

Jul. 30, 2008 - pretty negotiable as 17 White Street #3A closes

an 8% solution
The Manhattan loft #3A at 17 White Street came to market on March 13 at $4.5mm and found a contract within about six weeks -- the kind of trajectory that often implies a deal at or close to the asking price. It showed up as Sold & Closed on the inter-firm data base in mid-July, while the clearing price was revealed in a NY Post Just Sold feature on July 3:

17 White St.

Four-bedroom, three-bath co-op, 3,000 square feet, with 14-foot beamed ceilings, cast-iron pillars, oak floors, modern kitchen with separate pantry, laundry room, walk-in closets, 12 oversized double-pane windows, N/S/E exposures and keyed elevator. Maintenance $1,278, 50 percent tax-deductible. Asking price $4,500,000, on market four weeks. Brokers: David Friedman, Vertex Realty Group, Jeff Roth, Citi Habitats and Richard Ornstein, Halstead Property

Jul. 29, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 27

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night: 
 

This total is equal to the low since I started counting two months ago (my first count on May 19 was 745; two weeks ago was also 707). See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Jul. 28, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were 21 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 31 as sold (an unusual week, with more sales than new listings, though 20 sales were in a single new development)
• 13 of the 21 new ones are offered below $2mm, while 26 of the 31 closed sales were below $2mm
• 9 of the 21 new loft listings are in new development, while 24 of the 31 closed sales were in new development (20 at be@William)
  
  

  By price	New = 21	Sold = 31
  $500k to $999k	5	13
  $1mm to $1.99mm	8	13
  $2mm to $2.99mm	4	4
  $3mm to $3.99mm	2
  $4mm to $4.99mm
  $5mm+	2	1

  
  
  

  By neighborhood	New = 21	Sold = 31
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	1	1
  Clinton
  East Village		1
  Financial District	4	21
  Flatiron	2	1
  Gramercy		1
  Greenwich Village	3	2
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side	2
  Murray Hill
  Midtown East
  Midtown West	1
  SoHo
  Tribeca	1	4
  Turtle Bay	4
  Upper East Side
  Upper West Side	2
  West Village	1

  
  New loft listings in new developments

  45 John Street	1
  60 Ann Street	1
  25 Broad Street (The Exchange)	1
  173 MacDougal Street	1
  137 Duane Street	1
  315 East 46 Street (Alexander Plaza)	4

  
  Sold lofts in new developments 

  90 William Street (be@William)	20
  209 East 2 Street	1
  1 York Street	1
  475 Greenwich Street (Zinc)	2

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most recent rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Jul. 21, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 20

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night: 
 

This total is up moderately from the last two weeks (my first count on May 19 was 745; last week was 707). See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Jul. 20, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were 35 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 21 as sold
• 23 of the 35 new ones are offered between $1mm and $3mm, while 11 of the 21 closed sales were between $1mm and $3mm
• 12 of the 35 new loft listings are in new development, while 6 of the 21 closed sales were in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 35	Sold = 21
  $500k to $999k	3	4
  $1mm to $1.99mm	11	6
  $2mm to $2.99mm	12	5
  $3mm to $3.99mm	5	4
  $4mm to $4.99mm	1	2
  $5mm+	3

  
  
  

  By neighborhood	New = 35	Sold = 21
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	5	2
  Clinton
  East Village	2
  Financial District	6	3
  Flatiron	4	2
  Gramercy
  Greenwich Village	1	2
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side
  Murray Hill
  Midtown East
  Midtown West
  SoHo	3	3
  Tribeca	11	8
  Turtle Bay		1
  Upper East Side	1
  Upper West Side
  West Village	2

  
  New loft listings in new developments

  397 West 12 Street	1
  420 West 25 Street (Loft 25)	2
  25 Broad Street (The Exchange)	2
  20 Pine Street (The Collection)	2
  415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	3
  56 Walker Street	2

  
  Sold lofts in new developments 

  90 William Street (be@William)	2
  137 Duane Street	1
  1 York Street	1
  415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	2

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most recent rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Jul. 17, 2008 - Chelsea House flipper did not reach for stars, but got out via 6 week contract

modesty wins
The sale of  the Manhattan "loft" 130 West 19 Street Unit #6B that was reported this week in the inter-firm data base caught my eye as possibly the first flip at the Clarett Group's Chelsea House development (more "loft like" than true "loft", since it was built in 2006 but that's not a battle I am going to win). Next, I noticed it was a pretty quick sale (March 22 listing at $1.475mm, May 2 contract); the deed was filed July 3 at $1.45mm though only updated in our data base this week.

But what really stood out when I dug into the building history was that the asking price for this "1,100 sq ft" 2 bedroom unit was only $75,000 more than the 2008 seller paid as the original buyer in May 2007. The "profit" of $50,000 on the July 2008 flip of the May 2007 purchase is more than eaten up by the round trip expenses (two sets of transfer taxes, broker commission on sale being only the big tickets), which was very likely a bitter pill for the seller.

Props to the seller and PruDE agents Dennis St. Germain and Scott Allison for understanding where to price the unit to sell.

averages don't apply easily
This sale is an excellent demonstration that gross market data about year-over-year price appreciation is of very limited utility in looking at specific properties. Unit 6B appreciated 3.5% from May 2007 to July 2008, lower than the gains reported in any of the Second Quarter market reports, but the facts are the facts.

In fact, the July 2008 value for #6B is lower than the original sale price of the identical #9B in June 2007 ($1.475mm). The neighbors can't be happy with the modest price for #6B, but the seller must be happy to be out.

© Sandy Mattingly 2008

Jul. 15, 2008 - 130 West 17 Street #9S went for it + got it

how to determine "worth"?
A top-floor Manhattan loft at 130 West 17 Street was the subject of one of my occasional Going For It! posts way back on September 23, 2007 (when I was still commenting on other firm's active listings), 130 W 17 9S is new + really going for it. As in similar Going For It! posts, I was intrigued by an asking price that I could not find justification for in any traditional analysis -- nearby comps, past sales in the same building, particularly.

The price dropped on November 14 to $2.995mm, then they had a couple of "almosts": an accepted offer, then Back On the Market in January; then another accepted offer and BOM in February. Pay dirt came when a contract was signed on March 5, followed by a deed being filed June 5 for $2.85mm. (I saw that it had closed soon after, but waited to blog about it until the clearing price was available on ACRIS.)

Jul. 14, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 13

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night: 
 

This total is essentially unchanged from the kinda big last week (my first count on May 19 was 745; last week was 709). See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Jul. 13, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were 37 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 47 as sold
• 22 of the 37 new ones are offered below $2mm, while 37 of the 47 closed sales were under $3mm
  
• only 1 of the 37 new loft listings is in new development, but 28 of the 47 closed sales were in new development (11 each in Tribeca Space and Zinc)
  
  

  By price	New = 37	Sold = 47
  $500k to $999k	5	14
  $1mm to $1.99mm	17	12
  $2mm to $2.99mm	4	11
  $3mm to $3.99mm	6	7
  $4mm to $4.99mm	1	3
  $5mm+	4

  
  
  

  By neighborhood	New = 37	Sold = 47
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	9	2
  Clinton	2	1
  East Village
  Financial District	2	12
  Flatiron	3	1
  Gramercy	2
  Greenwich Village	6	2
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side	1
  Murray Hill
  Midtown East	1
  Midtown West	1
  SoHo	1	4
  Tribeca	4	21
  Turtle Bay	1	1
  Upper East Side	2	1
  Upper West Side
  West Village	2	2

  
  New loft listings in new developments

  173 MacDougal Street

  2

  
  Sold lofts in new developments 

  90 William Street (be@William)	11
  25 Murray Street (Tribeca Space)	5
  1 York Street	1
  475 Greenwich Street (Zinc)	11

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most rcent rant aboiut how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

Jul. 10, 2008 - loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead

classification irritation
Ever since I began counting new listings and closed sales for Manhattan "lofts" last October I have been aware of -- and irritated by -- the definitional problems in doing such a 'simple' thing. As I said in that first post on October 21, 2007, there is a:

 

 

dicey definitional problem

 

I am catching all listings carried in OLR as "lofts", which I think is dependent on the listing agent checking the "loft" box when they enter the listing. I know this will be under-inclusive because not all agents check the "loft" box even on listings that we would all agree are lofts. I suspect this will be somewhat over-inclusive for the same reason: some agents will identify an apartment as a "loft" that - to a loft-snob like myself - is really only "loft-like".

 

I think that the benefit of standardized data is worth this compromise (not to mention that the data searches are much simpler if I don't have to second-guess what the listing agents have done).

I was reminded of this just today, when two very expensive lofts came to market in the same "west SoHo" (I hate that designation!) building, ironically enough, by the same agent. One is marketed as a "loft"; one is not. No question: both are lofts. Arrggghhh.

The confessed-loft brags about beams and columns and exposed brick and original steel doors and high ceilings -- all classic "loft" indicators. The too-shy-to-be-called-loft brags about the exact same elements but does not use the word "loft" and the agent did not check the "loft" box on the inter-firm database for this listing.

In order for me to be consistent in my reporting, only one of these new listings will show up in this week's report. I still think that is the most reasonable course for me to take to preserve the integrity of the data (limited as that integrity may be) because the alternative is for me to second-guess listing agents (not to mention that it would make data collection much more cumbersome, perhaps even impossible). But it is irritating that there is no better way to do this.

End of rant. Resume normal activities.

Jul. 8, 2008 - one year to contract at 45 Walker Street

did Hillary Swank help?

The deed transferring the Manhattan loft at 45 Walker Street #4 was filed two weeks ago, ending a rather long sales effort. At under $1,200/ft for a condo with low monthly charges, this is a relative Tribeca loft bargain.

Jul. 7, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 7

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night:
 

This total is the first drop of any consequence since my first count on May 19, which was 745 (last week was 737). See that May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

Jul. 7, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

• there were only 20 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 29 as sold
• 15 of the 20 new ones are offered between $1mm and $4mm, while 18 of the 29 closed sales were under $2mm
  
• 5 of the 20 new loft listings are in the same new development, but 11 of the 29 closed sales were in new development
  
  

  By price	New = 20	Sold = 29
  $500k to $999k	1	11
  $1mm to $1.99mm	5	7
  $2mm to $2.99mm	5	6
  $3mm to $3.99mm	5	4
  $4mm to $4.99mm	2
  $5mm+	2	1

  
  
  

  By neighborhood	New = 20	Sold = 29
  Battery Park City
  Chelsea	6	2
  Clinton		1
  East Village		2
  Financial District	1	7
  Flatiron	2	2
  Gramercy	2
  Greenwich Village	2	3
  Kips Bay
  Little Italy
  Lower East Side
  Murray Hill		1
  Midtown West
  SoHo	4	7
  Tribeca	2	3
  Turtle Bay
  Upper East Side
  Upper West Side		1
  West Village	1

  
  New loft listings in new developments

  333 West 16 Street (The Pakalanda)

  5

  
  Sold lofts in new developments 

  421 West 54 Street (The Hit Factory)	1
  40 Bond Street	1
  20 Pine Street	1
  90 William Street (be@William)	4
  15 West 17 Street	1
  330 Spring Street (Urban Glass House)	2
  8 - 10 Warren Street	1

  
  

  
  For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days.
  

Jul. 3, 2008 - when in the course...

BIG Holiday! 'See' you Sunday or Monday. In the meantime ...

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security. --Such has been the patient sufferance of these colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former systems of government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute tyranny over these states. To prove this, let facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of representation in the legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved representative houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the legislative powers, incapable of annihilation, have returned to the people at large for their exercise; the state remaining in the meantime exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavored to prevent the population of these states; for that purpose obstructing the laws for naturalization of foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migration hither, and raising the conditions of new appropriations of lands.

He has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing judiciary powers.

He has made judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the consent of our legislature.

He has affected to render the military independent of and superior to civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their acts of pretended legislation:

For quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment for any murders which they should commit on the inhabitants of these states:

For cutting off our trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing taxes on us without our consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of trial by jury:

For transporting us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offenses:

For abolishing the free system of English laws in a neighboring province, establishing therein an arbitrary government, and enlarging its boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule in these colonies:

For taking away our charters, abolishing our most valuable laws, and altering fundamentally the forms of our governments:

For suspending our own legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, burned our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow citizens taken captive on the high seas to bear arms against their country, to become the executioners of their friends and brethren, or to fall themselves by their hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian savages, whose known rule of warfare, is undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these oppressions we have petitioned for redress in the most humble terms: our repeated petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have we been wanting in attention to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, enemies in war, in peace friends.

We, therefore, the representatives of the United States of America, in General Congress, assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by the authority of the good people of these colonies, solemnly publish and declare, that these united colonies are, and of right ought to be free and independent states; that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the state of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as free and independent states, they have full power to levy war, conclude peace, contract alliances, establish commerce, and to do all other acts and things which independent states may of right do. And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.

New Hampshire: Josiah Bartlett, William Whipple, Matthew Thornton

Massachusetts: John Hancock, Samual Adams, John Adams, Robert Treat Paine, Elbridge Gerry

Rhode Island: Stephen Hopkins, William Ellery

Connecticut: Roger Sherman, Samuel Huntington, William Williams, Oliver Wolcott

New York: William Floyd, Philip Livingston, Francis Lewis, Lewis Morris

New Jersey: Richard Stockton, John Witherspoon, Francis Hopkinson, John Hart, Abraham Clark

Pennsylvania: Robert Morris, Benjamin Rush, Benjamin Franklin, John Morton, George Clymer, James Smith, George Taylor, James Wilson, George Ross

Delaware: Caesar Rodney, George Read, Thomas McKean

Maryland: Samuel Chase, William Paca, Thomas Stone, Charles Carroll of Carrollton

Virginia: George Wythe, Richard Henry Lee, Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Harrison, Thomas Nelson, Jr., Francis Lightfoot Lee, Carter Braxton

North Carolina: William Hooper, Joseph Hewes, John Penn

South Carolina: Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., Thomas Lynch, Jr., Arthur Middleton

Georgia: Button Gwinnett, Lyman Hall, George Walton

Source: The Pennsylvania Packet, July 8, 1776

I got the text here.

Jul. 1, 2008 - 116 West 14 Street closes at very old price / why so long?

recycled listing, very successful marketing

). It closed recently, with a deed filed June 16 for $4.75mm.

I still think that January 26 has interesting commentary, but here's the punchline: it came

market originally in June 2007 (taking only 6 weeks off the market before

firms in January 2008) for $4mm. That original firm offered it at two higher prices ($4.5mm after one week in June, then up to $4.75 in July), then

had it at $5mm from January until the contract was signed in 4 weeks.

The

marketing was beautiful (you can see some of it on this

), but it is weird that The Market did not reward the first firm with a contract off of $4mm, $4.5mm or $4.75mm yet

got $4.75mm (quickly!) while asking $5mm.... This looks like a beautiful renovation, indeed, but the living room overlooks 14

Street from the second floor.

Props to Sean Turner and Michelle Della

at

.