Manhattan Loft Guy

price range	# of lofts
$500k to $999k	99
$1mm to $1.99mm	228
$2mm to $2.99mm	165
$3mm to $3.99mm	90
$4mm to $4.99mm	47
$5mm to $10mm	78
TOTAL	707

This is my thirty-ninth report on the number, price distribution and neighborhood distribution for Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market or as closed sales in the last 7 days.

The stats as of Sunday night:

there were 21 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 31 as sold (an unusual week, with more sales than new listings, though 20 sales were in a single new development)

13 of the 21 new ones are offered below $2mm, while 26 of the 31 closed sales were below $2mm

9 of the 21 new loft listings are in new development, while 24 of the 31 closed sales were in new development (20 at be@William)

By price	New = 21	Sold = 31
$500k to $999k	5	13
$1mm to $1.99mm	8	13
$2mm to $2.99mm	4	4
$3mm to $3.99mm	2
$4mm to $4.99mm
$5mm+	2	1

By neighborhood	New = 21	Sold = 31
Battery Park City
Chelsea	1	1
Clinton
East Village		1
Financial District	4	21
Flatiron	2	1
Gramercy		1
Greenwich Village	3	2
Kips Bay
Little Italy
Lower East Side	2
Murray Hill
Midtown East
Midtown West	1
SoHo
Tribeca	1	4
Turtle Bay	4
Upper East Side
Upper West Side	2
West Village	1

New loft listings in new developments

45 John Street	1
60 Ann Street	1
25 Broad Street (The Exchange)	1
173 MacDougal Street	1
137 Duane Street	1
315 East 46 Street (Alexander Plaza)	4

Sold lofts in new developments

90 William Street (be@William)	20
209 East 2 Street	1
1 York Street	1
475 Greenwich Street (Zinc)	2

For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most recent rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

price range	# of lofts
$500k to $999k	101
$1mm to $1.99mm	228
$2mm to $2.99mm	170
$3mm to $3.99mm	91
$4mm to $4.99mm	46
$5mm to $10mm	80
TOTAL	716

This is my thirty-eighth report on the number, price distribution and neighborhood distribution for Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market or as closed sales in the last 7 days.

The stats as of Sunday night:

there were 35 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 21 as sold

23 of the 35 new ones are offered between $1mm and $3mm, while 11 of the 21 closed sales were between $1mm and $3mm

12 of the 35 new loft listings are in new development, while 6 of the 21 closed sales were in new development

By price	New = 35	Sold = 21
$500k to $999k	3	4
$1mm to $1.99mm	11	6
$2mm to $2.99mm	12	5
$3mm to $3.99mm	5	4
$4mm to $4.99mm	1	2
$5mm+	3

By neighborhood	New = 35	Sold = 21
Battery Park City
Chelsea	5	2
Clinton
East Village	2
Financial District	6	3
Flatiron	4	2
Gramercy
Greenwich Village	1	2
Kips Bay
Little Italy
Lower East Side
Murray Hill
Midtown East
Midtown West
SoHo	3	3
Tribeca	11	8
Turtle Bay		1
Upper East Side	1
Upper West Side
West Village	2

New loft listings in new developments

397 West 12 Street	1
420 West 25 Street (Loft 25)	2
25 Broad Street (The Exchange)	2
20 Pine Street (The Collection)	2
415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	3
56 Walker Street	2

Sold lofts in new developments

90 William Street (be@William)	2
137 Duane Street	1
1 York Street	1
415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	2

first, the listing history
The loft came to market on September 20 "[as a] "2,000 sq ft" loft with a skylight and the possibility of purchasing roof rights, asking a new-construction-like Manhattan loft price of $3.2mm and $2,062/mo". As I said in September, "this listing description presents a premium justification (persuasive or not is a different story), dropping "exquisitely finished", 4 exposures, "beautifully appointed", "sky-lit cook's kitchen" and "superb bathroom renovations". The listing pix are consistent with this prose...."

All in all, this was a very successful marketing campaign that took longer than average to get to contract (almost 6 months) despite taking a lager than average discount off the asking price (11%).

the definition of 'successful' marketing
I characterize this as very successful because -- in my judgment -- they stretched significantly in their pricing and closed above where the comps and building stats indicated the range of values.

Data like these make the Manhattan loft market so interesting and -- to me -- so very different from the "apartment" market. Yes, all real estate is "unique", but scarcity drives value. In this case, the buyer obviously determined that this specific loft represented value for him/her at levels not implied by the comps or past building sales.

(Note that I am not saying that this buyer overpaid. Since I assume that no guns were involved in the negotiation, this buyer paid no more than s/he was willing to pay and no less than he seller was willing to accept. The 'fact' that other market data implies a lower valuation means only that they'd have had trouble financing a 'standard' mortgage.)

a lofty conundrum
As I noted in my September 23 post, the last sale in the building was "the much smaller #6S ("1,300 sq ft" which is charming, but not very bright, and in serious need of updating, even though designed by an award-winning architect (I have seen it; funky rather than spacious). It sold fairly quickly in May for $1.25mm (above the $1.195mm asking price). That's under $1,000/ft for the mathematically challenged."

Two years ago the other loft on the top floor sold. "The last sale before that one was #9N, which sold in February 2006 (and went to contract in two weeks). ~~City records don't show that closed price, but~~ the ask was $1.85mm for "1,700 sq ft" described (modestly?) as having "brilliant light and towering city views" and "intelligent room coordination, design and fine fixtures". Not a premium description like that for its neighbor on the 9^th floor, but one could do a lot of renovation in 9N's 1,700 sq ft before getting close to $1,600/ft all-in". (With a little more digging, I see that the clearing price for #9N was [a heavily negotiated] $1,792,500; less than $1,100/ft and about $400/ft lower than #9S traded for.)

I scratched my head in September, searching for the plus factor for #9S.

For buyers to pay the primo premium asked for 9S, there's gotta be something special about it. The other sales in the building indicate that location is not the plus factor here. The views could be a plus factor, but they appear not to have helped 9N much. The "possible" roof deck should not be a plus, since (a) you'd still have to pay for it, and (b) it is merely possible at this point. (Out door space -- especially private roof space -- can be a significant plus factor, I just don't think this possibility qualifies.) Perhaps it is the finishes and fixtures.

For finishes and fixtures to be the plus factor driving an atypically high price, they have to overcome the buyer's mental math how much would it cost me to build out my dream loft? and it has to match the buyer's tastes. So the market of really interested buyers shrinks as the finishes and fixtures become more (personally) stylish. The seller wants a buyer whose taste exactly matches theirs, or else the buyer won't be willing to pay a premium.

Time will, of course, tell.

points, general and specific
My general point here is that the truism that The Market Is Determined By The Decisions Of Individual Buyers And Individual Sellers generates -- in my opinion -- more variation for lofts than for "apartments". Perhaps because there are so many more "apartments" than lofts in Manhattan, an "apartment" buyer is more likely to have more directlycomparable choices of units in similar locations, of similar size, in similar condition. Thus, the general market should be more 'efficient'.

My specific point is that this loft closed above where it could have been expected to (by me, at least), taking into consideration its location ( a great Chelsea block, yes, but one that did not generate a premium for #9N or #6S), condition (is that renovation worth $400/ft over #9N? or even more over #6S?) and thepossibility of paying an additional and unknown amount for roof rights.

The Market is The Market is ...

Whatever I think, this buyer and this seller established The Market Price for #9S at $1,450/ft. Props to the LaChance team at Corcoran. Best wishes to the buyer for a long enjoyable life in the loft.

Hate to sound like a snob, but cookie cutters can be easier to value than "unique" lofts.

price range	# of lofts
$500k to $999k	103
$1mm to $1.99mm	232
$2mm to $2.99mm	162
$3mm to $3.99mm	89
$4mm to $4.99mm	42
$5mm to $10mm	79
TOTAL	707

This is my thirty-seventh report on the number, price distribution and neighborhood distribution for Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market or as closed sales in the last 7 days.

The stats as of Sunday night show that this was a BUSY week (following the slow and short holiday week), especially for 2 new developments:

there were 37 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 47 as sold

22 of the 37 new ones are offered below $2mm, while 37 of the 47 closed sales were under $3mm

only 1 of the 37 new loft listings is in new development, but 28 of the 47 closed sales were in new development (11 each in Tribeca Space and Zinc)

By price	New = 37	Sold = 47
$500k to $999k	5	14
$1mm to $1.99mm	17	12
$2mm to $2.99mm	4	11
$3mm to $3.99mm	6	7
$4mm to $4.99mm	1	3
$5mm+

Manhattan Loft Guy

Archives

July 2008

Jul. 31, 2008 - lux diversion / Time Warner or 165 Charles as better "investment"?

Jul. 30, 2008 - pretty negotiable as 17 White Street #3A closes

Jul. 29, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 27

Jul. 28, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

Jul. 21, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 20

Jul. 20, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

Jul. 17, 2008 - Chelsea House flipper did not reach for stars, but got out via 6 week contract

Jul. 15, 2008 - 130 West 17 Street #9S went for it + got it

Jul. 14, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 13

Jul. 13, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days