Manhattan Loft Guy

Jul. 21, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 20

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night:

price range	# of lofts
$500k to $999k	101
$1mm to $1.99mm	228
$2mm to $2.99mm	170
$3mm to $3.99mm	91
$4mm to $4.99mm	46
$5mm to $10mm	80
TOTAL	716

This total is up moderately from the last two weeks (my first count on May 19 was 745; last week was 707). See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

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Jul. 20, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

This is my thirty-eighth report on the number, price distribution and neighborhood distribution for Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market or as closed sales in the last 7 days.

The stats as of Sunday night:

there were 35 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 21 as sold
23 of the 35 new ones are offered between $1mm and $3mm, while 11 of the 21 closed sales were between $1mm and $3mm

12 of the 35 new loft listings are in new development, while 6 of the 21 closed sales were in new development

By price	New = 35	Sold = 21
$500k to $999k	3	4
$1mm to $1.99mm	11	6
$2mm to $2.99mm	12	5
$3mm to $3.99mm	5	4
$4mm to $4.99mm	1	2
$5mm+	3

By neighborhood	New = 35	Sold = 21
Battery Park City
Chelsea	5	2
Clinton
East Village	2
Financial District	6	3
Flatiron	4	2
Gramercy
Greenwich Village	1	2
Kips Bay
Little Italy
Lower East Side
Murray Hill
Midtown East
Midtown West
SoHo	3	3
Tribeca	11	8
Turtle Bay		1
Upper East Side	1
Upper West Side
West Village	2

New loft listings in new developments

397 West 12 Street	1
420 West 25 Street (Loft 25)	2
25 Broad Street (The Exchange)	2
20 Pine Street (The Collection)	2
415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	3
56 Walker Street	2

Sold lofts in new developments

90 William Street (be@William)	2
137 Duane Street	1
1 York Street	1
415 Greenwich Street (Tribeca Summit)	2

For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most recent rant about how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

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View more entries tagged with: New Listings, Sales, Closed, Loft 25, West 25, Pine, Collection, West 12, Grenwich, Summit

Jul. 17, 2008 - Chelsea House flipper did not reach for stars, but got out via 6 week contract

modesty wins
The sale of the Manhattan "loft" 130 West 19 Street Unit #6B that was reported this week in the inter-firm data base caught my eye as possibly the first flip at the Clarett Group's Chelsea House development (more "loft like" than true "loft", since it was built in 2006 but that's not a battle I am going to win). Next, I noticed it was a pretty quick sale (March 22 listing at $1.475mm, May 2 contract); the deed was filed July 3 at $1.45mm though only updated in our data base this week.

But what really stood out when I dug into the building history was that the asking price for this "1,100 sq ft" 2 bedroom unit was only $75,000 more than the 2008 seller paid as the original buyer in May 2007. The "profit" of $50,000 on the July 2008 flip of the May 2007 purchase is more than eaten up by the round trip expenses (two sets of transfer taxes, broker commission on sale being only the big tickets), which was very likely a bitter pill for the seller.

Props to the seller and PruDE agents Dennis St. Germain and Scott Allison for understanding where to price the unit to sell.

averages don't apply easily
This sale is an excellent demonstration that gross market data about year-over-year price appreciation is of very limited utility in looking at specific properties. Unit 6B appreciated 3.5% from May 2007 to July 2008, lower than the gains reported in any of the Second Quarter market reports, but the facts are the facts.

In fact, the July 2008 value for #6B is lower than the original sale price of the identical #9B in June 2007 ($1.475mm). The neighbors can't be happy with the modest price for #6B, but the seller must be happy to be out.

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Jul. 15, 2008 - 130 West 17 Street #9S went for it + got it

how to determine "worth"?
A top-floor Manhattan loft at 130 West 17 Street was the subject of one of my occasional Going For It! posts way back on September 23, 2007 (when I was still commenting on other firm's active listings), 130 W 17 9S is new + really going for it. As in similar Going For It! posts, I was intrigued by an asking price that I could not find justification for in any traditional analysis -- nearby comps, past sales in the same building, particularly.

first, the listing history
The loft came to market on September 20 "[as a] "2,000 sq ft" loft with a skylight and the possibility of purchasing roof rights, asking a new-construction-like Manhattan loft price of $3.2mm and $2,062/mo". As I said in September, "this listing description presents a premium justification (persuasive or not is a different story), dropping "exquisitely finished", 4 exposures, "beautifully appointed", "sky-lit cook's kitchen" and "superb bathroom renovations". The listing pix are consistent with this prose...."

The price dropped on November 14 to $2.995mm, then they had a couple of "almosts": an accepted offer, then Back On the Market in January; then another accepted offer and BOM in February. Pay dirt came when a contract was signed on March 5, followed by a deed being filed June 5 for $2.85mm. (I saw that it had closed soon after, but waited to blog about it until the clearing price was available on ACRIS.)

All in all, this was a very successful marketing campaign that took longer than average to get to contract (almost 6 months) despite taking a lager than average discount off the asking price (11%).

the definition of 'successful' marketing
I characterize this as very successful because -- in my judgment -- they stretched significantly in their pricing and closed above where the comps and building stats indicated the range of values.

Data like these make the Manhattan loft market so interesting and -- to me -- so very different from the "apartment" market. Yes, all real estate is "unique", but scarcity drives value. In this case, the buyer obviously determined that this specific loft represented value for him/her at levels not implied by the comps or past building sales.

(Note that I am not saying that this buyer overpaid. Since I assume that no guns were involved in the negotiation, this buyer paid no more than s/he was willing to pay and no less than he seller was willing to accept. The 'fact' that other market data implies a lower valuation means only that they'd have had trouble financing a 'standard' mortgage.)

a lofty conundrum
As I noted in my September 23 post, the last sale in the building was "the much smaller #6S ("1,300 sq ft" which is charming, but not very bright, and in serious need of updating, even though designed by an award-winning architect (I have seen it; funky rather than spacious). It sold fairly quickly in May for $1.25mm (above the $1.195mm asking price). That's under $1,000/ft for the mathematically challenged."

Two years ago the other loft on the top floor sold. "The last sale before that one was #9N, which sold in February 2006 (and went to contract in two weeks). ~~City records don't show that closed price, but~~ the ask was $1.85mm for "1,700 sq ft" described (modestly?) as having "brilliant light and towering city views" and "intelligent room coordination, design and fine fixtures". Not a premium description like that for its neighbor on the 9^th floor, but one could do a lot of renovation in 9N's 1,700 sq ft before getting close to $1,600/ft all-in". (With a little more digging, I see that the clearing price for #9N was [a heavily negotiated] $1,792,500; less than $1,100/ft and about $400/ft lower than #9S traded for.)

I scratched my head in September, searching for the plus factor for #9S.

For buyers to pay the primo premium asked for 9S, there's gotta be something special about it. The other sales in the building indicate that location is not the plus factor here. The views could be a plus factor, but they appear not to have helped 9N much. The "possible" roof deck should not be a plus, since (a) you'd still have to pay for it, and (b) it is merely possible at this point. (Out door space -- especially private roof space -- can be a significant plus factor, I just don't think this possibility qualifies.) Perhaps it is the finishes and fixtures.

For finishes and fixtures to be the plus factor driving an atypically high price, they have to overcome the buyer's mental math how much would it cost me to build out my dream loft? and it has to match the buyer's tastes. So the market of really interested buyers shrinks as the finishes and fixtures become more (personally) stylish. The seller wants a buyer whose taste exactly matches theirs, or else the buyer won't be willing to pay a premium.

Time will, of course, tell.

points, general and specific
My general point here is that the truism that The Market Is Determined By The Decisions Of Individual Buyers And Individual Sellers generates -- in my opinion -- more variation for lofts than for "apartments". Perhaps because there are so many more "apartments" than lofts in Manhattan, an "apartment" buyer is more likely to have more directlycomparable choices of units in similar locations, of similar size, in similar condition. Thus, the general market should be more 'efficient'.

My specific point is that this loft closed above where it could have been expected to (by me, at least), taking into consideration its location ( a great Chelsea block, yes, but one that did not generate a premium for #9N or #6S), condition (is that renovation worth $400/ft over #9N? or even more over #6S?) and thepossibility of paying an additional and unknown amount for roof rights.

The Market is The Market is ...

Whatever I think, this buyer and this seller established The Market Price for #9S at $1,450/ft. Props to the LaChance team at Corcoran. Best wishes to the buyer for a long enjoyable life in the loft.

Hate to sound like a snob, but cookie cutters can be easier to value than "unique" lofts.

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View more entries tagged with: West 17, Renovation, Kitchen, Skylight, Roof Deck, Roof Rights, Contract, Close, Comps

Jul. 14, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 13

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night:

price range	# of lofts
$500k to $999k	103
$1mm to $1.99mm	232
$2mm to $2.99mm	162
$3mm to $3.99mm	89
$4mm to $4.99mm	42
$5mm to $10mm	79
TOTAL	707

This total is essentially unchanged from the kinda big last week (my first count on May 19 was 745; last week was 709). See my May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

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Jul. 13, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

This is my thirty-seventh report on the number, price distribution and neighborhood distribution for Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market or as closed sales in the last 7 days.

The stats as of Sunday night show that this was a BUSY week (following the slow and short holiday week), especially for 2 new developments:

there were 37 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 47 as sold
22 of the 37 new ones are offered below $2mm, while 37 of the 47 closed sales were under $3mm

only 1 of the 37 new loft listings is in new development, but 28 of the 47 closed sales were in new development (11 each in Tribeca Space and Zinc)

By price	New = 37	Sold = 47
$500k to $999k	5	14
$1mm to $1.99mm	17	12
$2mm to $2.99mm	4	11
$3mm to $3.99mm	6	7
$4mm to $4.99mm	1	3
$5mm+	4

By neighborhood	New = 37	Sold = 47
Battery Park City
Chelsea	9	2
Clinton	2	1
East Village
Financial District	2	12
Flatiron	3	1
Gramercy	2
Greenwich Village	6	2
Kips Bay
Little Italy
Lower East Side	1
Murray Hill
Midtown East	1
Midtown West	1
SoHo	1	4
Tribeca	4	21
Turtle Bay	1	1
Upper East Side	2	1
Upper West Side
West Village	2	2

New loft listings in new developments

173 MacDougal Street

Sold lofts in new developments

90 William Street (be@William)	11
25 Murray Street (Tribeca Space)	5
1 York Street	1
475 Greenwich Street (Zinc)	11

For information about how I get this stuff and why I slice it as I do, see methodology for New + Sold in The Last Seven Days. For my most rcent rant aboiut how soft this data may be, see loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead.

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View more entries tagged with: New Listings, Sales, Closed, Macdougal, William, Greenwich, Murray, York, Zinc, Tribeca Space

Jul. 10, 2008 - loft or not? caution: active ranting ahead

classification irritation
Ever since I began counting new listings and closed sales for Manhattan "lofts" last October I have been aware of -- and irritated by -- the definitional problems in doing such a 'simple' thing. As I said in that first post on October 21, 2007, there is a:

dicey definitional problem

I am catching all listings carried in OLR as "lofts", which I think is dependent on the listing agent checking the "loft" box when they enter the listing. I know this will be under-inclusive because not all agents check the "loft" box even on listings that we would all agree are lofts. I suspect this will be somewhat over-inclusive for the same reason: some agents will identify an apartment as a "loft" that - to a loft-snob like myself - is really only "loft-like".

I think that the benefit of standardized data is worth this compromise (not to mention that the data searches are much simpler if I don't have to second-guess what the listing agents have done).

I was reminded of this just today, when two very expensive lofts came to market in the same "west SoHo" (I hate that designation!) building, ironically enough, by the same agent. One is marketed as a "loft"; one is not. No question: both are lofts. Arrggghhh.

The confessed-loft brags about beams and columns and exposed brick and original steel doors and high ceilings -- all classic "loft" indicators. The too-shy-to-be-called-loft brags about the exact same elements but does not use the word "loft" and the agent did not check the "loft" box on the inter-firm database for this listing.

In order for me to be consistent in my reporting, only one of these new listings will show up in this week's report. I still think that is the most reasonable course for me to take to preserve the integrity of the data (limited as that integrity may be) because the alternative is for me to second-guess listing agents (not to mention that it would make data collection much more cumbersome, perhaps even impossible). But it is irritating that there is no better way to do this.

End of rant. Resume normal activities.

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Jul. 8, 2008 - one year to contract at 45 Walker Street

did Hillary Swank help?

The deed transferring the Manhattan loft at 45 Walker Street #4 was filed two weeks ago, ending a rather long sales effort. At under $1,200/ft for a condo with low monthly charges, this is a relative Tribeca loft bargain.

the history
first offered for sale on March 26, 2007 for $6.2mm (and $3,600/mo in taxes and common charges)
price drop that May to $5.995mm
another price drop in October to $5.8mm
finally! a March 2008 contract
closed June 26 at $5.735mm

the goods
This "4,800+ sq ft" architect-designed no-detail-overlooked loft looks and sounds spectacular, down to the 1,000 bottle wine cellar and media room with drop down screen (suitable for screening all Hillary Swank films). The 12 foot ceiings and "50 feet" of mahogany windows give it max loft cred, while the wood-burning fireplace is an unusually homey touch for a loft. Teh long-and-narrow layout is classic (windows only front and back, bedrooms in back, plumbing on both long walls), though with 4,800 sq ft that is rather long and not very narrow.

The building was converted to condos only in 2003, but it is unclear if the architect doing the no-detail-overlooked design was hired by the first owner or by the developer.

the impetus?
Interesting that unit #2 sold March 9, 2007 (see any connection?) for $5.07mm; that one took only 3.5 months to get into contract off an asking price of $5.4mm. Interesting that the second floor is not quite the same size as the fourth floor (the second floor 'lost' a room-sized space off the stairwell) and that the layout and finishings for the second floor are very similar to those on the fourth floor (so maybe the developer did all the no-detail-overlooking).

That pretty quick sale on March 9, 2007 may have induced the 4th floor owners to go for it on March 27, 2007. At the end of the day, the 4th floor owners got nearly $650k more than their former neighbors on 2 -- but that day (a full year before a contract) may have been much later than they anticipated when they started. (By that point, they obviously did not mind a 7.5% discount from their original asking price.) I wonder whether the Hillary Swank movie was being filmed before or after they decided to sell?

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View more entries tagged with: Walker, Deed, Closed, Longandnarrow, Renovation, 2003, Bargain, Movie, Hillary Swank

Jul. 7, 2008 - Manhattan loft inventory as of July 7

Number of Manhattan lofts offered for sale as of Sunday night:

price range	# of lofts
$500k to $999k	101
$1mm to $1.99mm	233
$2mm to $2.99mm	168
$3mm to $3.99mm	86
$4mm to $4.99mm	43
$5mm to $10mm	78
TOTAL	709

This total is the first drop of any consequence since my first count on May 19, which was 745 (last week was 737). See that May 19 post for what I am counting, and why it is difficult.

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Jul. 7, 2008 - new Manhattan loft listings + closed sales in last 7 days

This is my thirty-sixth report on the number, price distribution and neighborhood distribution for Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market or as closed sales in the last 7 days.

The stats as of Sunday night show more activity last week (as a short holiday week) than in the prior (rather slow) week ...

there were only 20 Manhattan lofts reported as new to the market in the last 7 days and 29 as sold
15 of the 20 new ones are offered between $1mm and $4mm, while 18 of the 29 closed sales were under $2mm

5 of the 20 new loft listings are in the same new development, but 11 of the 29 closed sales were in new development

By price	New = 20	Sold = 29
$500k to $999k	1	11
$1mm to $1.99mm	5	7
$2mm to $2.99mm	5	6
$3mm to $3.99mm	5	4
$4mm to $4.99mm	2
$5mm+	2	1

By neighborhood	New = 20	Sold = 29
Battery Park City
Chelsea	6