More New Listings

More new listings

Almost every time you pick up a newspaper today, it seems there’s an article about the national decline of the real-estate market. In a July 29 article in The New York Times, Jeremy Peters wrote:  “The report confirmed what recent housing data has shown — that homes are taking longer to find a buyer and more of them are sitting on the market unsold.”

Does that mean a “soft landing,” where increases in prices will moderate. Or are we in store for a “hard landing,” where prices will decrease, perhaps substantially.

Let’s look at some numbers to see whether the national numbers also hold true for Ulster County. Let’s compare the number of listings this year against comparable periods in 2005.

From June 28 of last year through last July 28 there were 315 new residential listings. That compares to 414 new listings for the same period in 2006, an increase of 31%.  The least expensive offering this summer was a handyman special in Saugerties that used to be a garage. The two-bedroom, one-bath, 651-square-foot domicile on a quarter-acre was selling for $65,000. The first offer on it was made within four hours of the listing by the Multiple Listing Service.

The most expensive home is still available. It’s a two-bedroom, two-bath, 5148-square-foot house on 14-plus acres in Marbletown. The $2.4-million price included two large artist’s studios, panoramic mountain views and a swimmable pond.

Twenty of the 414 new listings during this 30-day period have accepted offers. The average price is $249,645, the median price $229,900. This represents a very modest increase since last year of 2% of average price and 3% of median price. In 2005, by contrast, the average price across the county rose 13% and the median price 16%

If you take figures from the first of the year to present, this is what you find: There were 1892 residential properties listed from January 1 through July 28 of last year, compared to 2317 for the same period in 2006, an increase of 22%.  There were 908 closings during this period in 2005, versus 758 closings in 2006.  Average days on market remain pretty much the same: 167 days in 2005 and 161 days in 2006. Buyers are nervous these days. They’re fearful of buying in a declining market. They seek inducements. They are only willing to put in an offer if it’s a house they absolutely love, or feel that it offers good value, or that it’s cheap enough that they feel they have nothing to lose.

Buyers are looking for properties that require little, if any, work.  A recent prospective buyer pulled out of a deal after inspections showed minor defects that they perceived as defects.  If a buyer hesitated a year ago, they would have been fearful of losing the house. Now buyers feel that they have more options. They do.