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Date: Jan. 21, 2008
Tags: None
I recently heard a remark on the housing market that I think is apt: The recovery in the real estate market will look like an "L" not a "V". Meaning that prices will stabilize, but not necessarily start climbing again for a while.
Interest rates are low, and will probably go lower if the Fed cuts rates again at the end of January. This allows buyers to afford more house for the same monthly payment.
Sellers need to price their properties for today's market. Appraisals in a declining market have been coming in below the sales price: either the seller has to accept the lower price or the buyer needs to find more cash.
My sense is that the lower end (under $350k) and high end ($1MM) of the market are holding their own. In fact, the high end of the market is doing better than last year. There were ten $1MM+ properties that closed in 2006 and 17 in 2007.
The overall statistics for Ulster County for 2007 don't look much different from the overall statistics for 2006:
- Total sales volume is $403,623,346 for 2007 versus
$405, 562,940 for 2006
- Average sales price went up -- $303,021 for 2007 and
$285,809 for 2006
- Median sales price went up slightly to $252,577 for '07 and
$250,000 for '06.
- Number of units sold declined 6% from 1419 in '06 to 1332 in
'07.
However, if you look at the numbers for the last two months of the year compared with the same period a year ago, the numbers are quite different:
- Total sales volume declined 27% from $72,710,448 in '06 to
$52,880,501.
- Average sales price declined from $293,1187 in '06 to $278,318
- Median sales price is almost the same: $249,000 in '06 and $245,000 in '07
- Number of units sold declined 23% from 248 to 190.
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Date: Feb. 19, 2007
Tags: None
First, the numbers:
Countywide, there was no statistically significant changes from the 2005 numbers compared to previous years where there were double-digit increases. The average price remained the same at $283,173 and the median price was up 1% to
$249,000.
The average ratio of sale price to original list price was 92%, but this number is probably lower since it doesn't take into account properties that expired and were then relisted. Average days on market was 160, but is probably greater for the same reason.
New listings continue to outstrip sales. Properties that are overpriced tend to languish on the market. Smart sellers are pricing their homes at 5% below market value to stimulate interest.
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% inc |
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% inc |
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% inc |
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% inc |
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% inc |
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% inc |
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% inc |
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% inc |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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2004 |
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2005 |
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2006 |
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2001-02 |
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2002-03 |
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2003-04 |
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2004-05 |
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2005-06 |
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2001-03 |
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2001-04 |
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2001-05 |
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2001-06 |
| Median Price Per Home |
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| Denning* |
$92,500 |
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$86,000 |
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$85,000 |
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$139,000 |
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347,500 |
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69,500 |
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-7% |
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-1% |
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64% |
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150% |
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-80% |
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-8% |
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50% |
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276% |
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-25% |
| Esopus |
136,000 |
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146,550 |
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172,200 |
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215,000 |
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259,900 |
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247,000 |
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8% |
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18% |
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25% |
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21% |
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-5% |
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27% |
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58% |
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91% |
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82% |
| Gardiner |
247,000 |
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250,000 |
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305,000 |
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334,750 |
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331,000 |
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350,000 |
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1% |
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22% |
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10% |
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-1% |
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6% |
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23% |
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36% |
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34% |
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42% |
| Hurley |
133,500 |
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175,000 |
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204,500 |
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223,450 |
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235,000 |
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262,500 |
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31% |
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17% |
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9% |
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5% |
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12% |
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53% |
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67% |
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76% |
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97% |
| Kingston City |
92,500 |
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112,000 |
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128,000 |
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160,000 |
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184,000 |
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191,745 |
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21% |
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14% |
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25% |
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15% |
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4% |
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38% |
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73% |
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99% |
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107% |
| Kingston, Town |
143,500 |
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122,000 |
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111,950 |
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164,500 |
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252,500 |
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282,500 |
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-15% |
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-8% |
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47% |
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53% |
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12% |
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-22% |
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15% |
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76% |
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97% |
| Lloyd |
125,000 |
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149,000 |
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177,000 |
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224,900 |
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262,250 |
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269,000 |
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19% |
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19% |
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27% |
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17% |
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3% |
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42% |
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80% |
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110% |
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115% |
| Marbletown |
167,500 |
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213,500 |
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280,000 |
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257,500 |
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340,000 |
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335,000 |
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27% |
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31% |
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-8% |
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32% |
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-1% |
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67% |
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54% |
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103% |
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100% |
| Marlboro |
152,500 |
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138,225 |
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225,950 |
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247,200 |
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255,000 |
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312,630 |
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-9% |
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63% |
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9% |
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3% |
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23% |
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48% |
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62% |
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67% |
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105% |
| New Paltz |
130,000 |
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192,000 |
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225,000 |
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265,000 |
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310,000 |
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290,000 |
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48% |
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17% |
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18% |
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17% |
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-6% |
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73% |
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104% |
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138% |
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123% |
| Olive |
167,500 |
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155,500 |
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212,000 |
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260,500 |
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252,500 |
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271,000 |
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-7% |
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36% |
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23% |
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-3% |
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7% |
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27% |
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56% |
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51% |
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62% |
| Plattekill |
125,000 |
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164,640 |
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204,500 |
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265,500 |
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285,000 |
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300,000 |
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32% |
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24% |
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30% |
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7% |
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5% |
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64% |
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112% |
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128% |
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140% |
| Rochester |
128,000 |
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151,000 |
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171,950 |
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199,500 |
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240,000 |
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238,000 |
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18% |
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14% |
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16% |
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20% |
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-1% |
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34% |
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56% |
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88% |
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86% |
| Rosendale |
115,000 |
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143,125 |
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167,500 |
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185,000 |
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228,000 |
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232,500 |
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24% |
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17% |
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10% |
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23% |
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2% |
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46% |
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61% |
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98% |
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102% |
| Saugerties Town |
116,500 |
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135,000 |
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160,150 |
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185,000 |
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220,000 |
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229,900 |
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16% |
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19% |
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16% |
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19% |
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5% |
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37% |
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59% |
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89% |
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97% |
| Saugerties Village |
92,500 |
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122,000 |
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157,263 |
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175,000 |
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203,250 |
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199,500 |
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32% |
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29% |
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11% |
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16% |
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-2% |
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70% |
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89% |
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120% |
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116% |
| Shandaken |
122,250 |
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151,000 |
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215,000 |
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214,500 |
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250,000 |
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200,000 |
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24% |
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42% |
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0% |
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17% |
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-20% |
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76% |
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75% |
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104% |
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64% |
| Shawangunk |
150,000 |
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195,199 |
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243,000 |
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225,500 |
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339,900 |
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280,000 |
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30% |
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24% |
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-7% |
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51% |
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-18% |
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62% |
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50% |
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127% |
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87% |
| Ulster |
101,250 |
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137,500 |
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164,000 |
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170,000 |
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193,750 |
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224,825 |
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36% |
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19% |
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4% |
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14% |
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16% |
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62% |
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68% |
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91% |
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122% |
| Wawarsing |
95,000 |
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101,500 |
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127,000 |
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142,650 |
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165,000 |
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176,000 |
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7% |
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25% |
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12% |
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16% |
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7% |
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34% |
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50% |
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74% |
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85% |
| Woodstock |
225,000 |
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276,100 |
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290,000 |
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297,500 |
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357,000 |
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368,000 |
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23% |
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5% |
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3% |
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20% |
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3% |
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29% |
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32% |
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59% |
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64% |
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Comments (1) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link :: Email This Entry
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The market continues at a slow pace, with the number of new listings far outpacing the number of listings with accepted offers. The most active segment is in the $300k and under range. For instance, of the 14 listings marked as "pending continue to show" today, all but one were under $300k. The one exception was a 3-BR, 2-bath house in Stone Ridge on 5+ acres, with an asking price of $345k.
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