Reno to New Hampshire:
Let's market our state to more than just tourists

-by Peter Francese

The Chancellor of the University System of New Hampshire, Dr. Stephen Reno, has put forth this great idea: a big marketing campaign aimed at convincing just 10 percent more of our state’s college graduates to stay here after they graduate.

He’s right about the village part. This is a terrific idea, but what will happen when these recent college graduates go looking for a place to live and find nothing they can afford? There are a lot of reasonably priced condominiums they could buy or rent, but the bulk of them are age restricted to residents 55 or older.  

New Hampshire Realtors can do their part by taking every opportunity to remind every planning board or town board members with whom they come in contact that providing workforce housing for the next generation is essential for the future of our state’s economy.  And also remind them that allowing workforce housing will not increase their property taxes, because our school age population is shrinking.

Over the past five years, the Census Bureau estimates that the number of 18- to 24-year-old young adults in our state has increased by 20,000 people, a 19 percent jump compared to a 6 percent increase in all residents.  Over the next few years, we hope that more of those young people, who now number 125,000, may want to stay here.

But if towns in our state don’t provide enough affordable starter homes or rental units for them, you can be sure there will be plenty of both types of housing in the magnet states of the South Atlantic region that have been, and are, attracting so many of our young graduates.

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The December 2006 home sales figures are now available from NNEREN, and here’s what they show:  Statewide, about 2,900 fewer homes (an 18 percent drop) were sold in 2006 than in 2005. But the average sale price remained pretty close to 2005 — at $306,000, compared to $311,000 the previous year.

The sales data also shows that statewide about 1,000 fewer condominiums were sold in 2006, also an 18 percent drop, with average price of $207,000 versus $204,000 in 2005.

The relative stability of prices here compared to elsewhere suggests that at least in this state, potential buyers in the spring of this year may not be as concerned about a future decline in the value of their home as they might have been in mid-2006.

The most recent (2005) Census Bureau population estimates suggest that demand for housing in New Hampshire from retirees and second home owners is likely to remain strong for quite some time. The Bureau estimated a 15,000-person increase in New Hampshire residents ages 65 or older. That’s a 10 percent rise from 2000 to 2005, compared to no increase at all in the other five New England states. That suggests quite a few retirees are moving here from other states in this region.

The age group with the highest incidence of second home ownership are people ages 55 to 64.  The Bureau estimated a 25 percent jump in that age group, both nationwide and in New England.  Nationwide, that meant a 6 million person increase. But in the other five New England states, which had virtually no population increase since 2000, that 25 percent jump meant an increase of over 280,000 persons ages 55 to 64.

Most of this age group are Baby Boomers (who are now ages 43 to 61).  Here’s what Dr. Karl Case, a noted real estate economist, said about them in a recent report for the Boston Federal Reserve Bank’s New England Public Policy Center:   “Boomers look at housing as previous generations looked at cars and TVs: rather than owning just one house, in many cases they own two, and sometimes three or four.”

As the housing market recovers its footing, it would seem that one of the bigger drivers of demand here in New Hampshire will be second or even third homes. But Dr. Case also points out that a large fraction of future primary home housing demand in New England and elsewhere is likely to come from immigrants.

So the next time you hear someone bashing immigrants and suggesting that we must cut off all immigration, remind them that it may very well be a first or second generation immigrant who will purchase their house when they need to sell it.