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December 2006

• Dec. 29, 2006 - New Hampshire Home Sellers..Looking for Buyers??

Trying to figure out where buyers come from?

By Monika McGillicuddy

It can be frustrating selling a home in this market and wondering just where all the buyers are...so if you're a  home seller this information will be helpful to you.

That National Association of REALTORS® publishes a yearly report on Home Buyers and Sellers, they also break this report down to reflect the individual states.

This typically reveals some very interesting facts about today's New Hampshire home buyers, and since Jay and I sell real estate right here in Hampstead NH this type of information is fascinating to us and we thought to you as well.  Southern NH is typically a hot market due to it's proximity to Boston but like the rest of New Hampshire this market has cooled.

Some of the details from this report:

 For example did you know that the average buyer purchases a home 15 miles from their previous residence... I didn't know that!  That means that people really don't move very far and that the potential new owner of your house could be living in the same town as you do.  All the more important is that yard sign of yours. Make sure especially as snow approaches that your sign is clearly visible from all angles. Please...please keep shrubbery trimmed around the sign...nothing is as frustrating for the REALTOR® professionals and potential home buyers as a hidden for sale sign! You want your house to Pop...don't hide the sign!  While I'm on my rant about signs make sure yours is in good condition and clean...nothing irks me more than a dirty faded yard sign or one that is falling down. If your home is on the market currently take a good look at your yard sign...does it need some sprucing up? Call your REALTOR® Professional and have them come take care of it.

Did you know that 89% of New Hampshire's home buyers purchased their home through a REALTOR® Professional? 89% now that's a huge percentage if you ask me...of course I'm probably a little prejudiced since I am a REALTOR® Professional..but I still think that's a huge percentage! Hey don't get me wrong, I'm not saying don't try to sell on your own if that's what you want to do but consider the facts...89% that means that 11% came from some other source...maybe from your For Sale By Owner sign or maybe not?? Oh by the way out of that 11% something like 4% are people you already know.

 So now think about this...28% of the home buyers learned about the home they purchased through a REALTOR® Professional and 47% learned about it through the Internet...that means that you need to be sure your REALTOR® Professional has a strong company website...47% of your buyers found their home on the net and then contacted an agent! Wow!

Folks you need to check out your real estate companies website...don't let anyone fool you about this one. Yes the personal touch is still needed..Thank goodness for us...remember 89% bought their home through a REALTOR® Professional BUT 47% found their home on the Net! You betcha...a solid web presence is crucial to your success!!!

Lets look at the rest of the story.
We know that:
28% of the buyers found the home they bought from a REALTOR® Professional.
47% found the home they bought from the Internet.
12% found the home they bought from a yard sign.
AND get this 2% from print newspaper advertisement.
6% from a friend, relative or neighbor.
3% directly from the sellers.
1% from the home builder or their agent.
1% from a home book or magazine.

So where do you think your buyers are? I bet their surfing the web, watching and waiting but I do think that while this market has been very slow here in New Hampshire...2007 will  be a good year in real estate.

Prices will be much more affordable and that means that maybe your children will be able to afford to buy a home in the town/area they grew up in and that I think is a very good thing! 

Need more information about New Hampshire's real estate market e-mail me or search homes available.

Monika and Jay McGillicuddy

603-548-7728

copyright Monika McGillicuddy 2006


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• Dec. 28, 2006 - Perception Is Reality...NH Housing Market

Is Perception.... Reality in New Hampshire's Housing Market?

By Monika McGillicuddy

A special addition of the New Hampshire Association (NHAR) of REALTORS® Market trends written by Peter Francese was just released. It is pretty interesting and I've reprinted it below in it's entirety with the blessings of NHAR.  The comparison used is buying a flat panel HDTV and buying a house..While still expensive people still buy the TV..don't they? Even though those High-def TVs have come down in price since last year...they are still pricey and everyone knows that prices could likely be lower still next year,

yet people buy. Peter goes on to say it is a "phenomenon worth noting" because it is a comparison that relates to the New Hampshire housing market. 

Buyer's who are not in a hurry will wait it out because they believe prices will likely come down and be more affordable in the future...it is a far cry from the attitude of just last year when buyers bought quickly in fear of prices rising.  Last year multiple offers were the norm and buyers frantically tried to out bid each other to buy their dream home.   Peter goes on the explain the importance of the ratio between wage increases and home prices.  This is something to consider as we try and figure out where New Hampshire home prices are going.  Questions about the market or homes contact me here or e-mail me. To read the latest state wide market report full of stats, visit my blog here .

 

December 2006

Consumers' perceptions are key to home buyer actions

by Peter Francese

Have you thought about buying a flat-panel HDTV recently? If so, perhaps you experienced what we call “buyer hesitation” because you weren’t sure if the price of those cool new TVs, which have been dropping, might be even lower next year.

With regard to those television sets, millions of Americans have decided that now is the time to buy. This is in part because they have become more affordable, but also because consumers now believe that the price is not likely to go much lower.

That same phenomenon is worth noting as it relates to the housing market here in New Hampshire. Many buyers, particularly those who are not in a hurry, are hesitating because they believe that prices are likely to be lower in the near future. This represents a significant shift in the psychology of home buyers from a year or two ago, when most of them thought home prices would keep rising.

The key question is this: When will this hesitation-leaning consumer sentiment regarding housing start to turn into a now-is-the-time-to-buy attitude?

One similarity between a home and a flat-panel HDTV is the issue of affordability.

The price of those televisions may not have reached their absolute lowest point, but they are significantly more affordable than they were a year ago.

One way to measure housing affordability is to calculate the ratio between average wages and home prices. This is easy, because the New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority publishes median home purchase prices at least annually, and the New Hampshire Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau publishes annual average wages for private employers. Both have data going back to 1990.

The ratio between those two numbers was remarkably flat through most of the 1990s. In 1990, the median home price was 5.3 times the average annual private employment wage. By 1992, that ratio had come down to 4.1, and with only slight variations it remained there until 2000, when the home price-to-wage ratio was still 4.1.

From 1992 to 2000, median home prices, which increased 41.5 percent, virtually tracked wages, which rose 43.8 percent.

But Chart I below shows what has happened since 2000. In the first half of this decade, home prices jumped from 4.1 to 6.1 times average wages. The reason: Median home prices rose 74.8 percent between 2000 and 2005, while average wages increased just 16.4 percent. For a comparison, the US consumer price index rose 13.4 percent in the same five-year period.

Two important notes: Interest rates were at historic lows during the first half of this decade, and vacation home buyers in New Hampshire were far more abundant than they had been during the 1990s.

Unless there are significant interest rate cuts in the near future, during the last half of this decade it would be logical to expect home prices to track much closer to wage increases. But there are other forces at work.

We don’t know, for example, what will happen with regard to second home buyers. There is some indication that rising equity prices in the stock market may fuel some additional buying of second or even third homes in our state as well as in Maine and Vermont. Increasing wealth abroad may also bring more foreign buyers.

One additional factor is that older home buyers with substantial equity are a larger fraction of home owners in New England than at any time in the past. That makes it more likely that home prices will track at a somewhat higher ratio to wages than they did in the decade just past.

Perhaps more potential home buyers would think it was time to buy if the median home price-to-wages ratio here were to gradually return to 5.7 or what it was in 2003. If next year’s average wages were to rise at the same rate as they did last year (3.7 percent), that would mean in 2007 the average wage would be $44,000 and the median home price would be $250,800, or just about where it was in 2005.

The bottom line is that if average wages continue to rise and second home buyers remain in the picture, then the consumers’ perception is likely to be that home prices are stabilizing and it is time to buy. But we should keep an eye on work force growth as well as wage increases going into 2007, because that will have a big effect on consumer sentiment regarding housing.

Sources: NH Housing Finance Authority & NH Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau

The Real Estate Market Trends newsletter is provided for the benefit of the members of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. ©Copyright 2006 New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Peter Francese is the Demographic Advisor to the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®.

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• Dec. 23, 2006 - Make Holiday Memories

Make Memories...The Lasting Holiday Gift

By Monika McGillicuddy

Happy Holidays To All 


                      
 Make Memories this Holiday because those are gifts that last a lifetime...

Seems like just yesterday when we moved into our new home in New Hampshire...we didn't have much. My mom and dad packed us up..wasn't all that much to pack. They took us on a voyage that would bring us many miles across the sea... away from the only home they ever knew.

I can't imagine what that must have felt like. Taking your very young family, leaving your own family..mother, father, siblings and everything you knew and loved behind.
 
Leaving your comfort zone all in the hopes and dreams of a better life for your own children. Imagine arriving in the United States of America...not knowing the language and only knowing one person! Imagine how lonely and scary that must have been..to only know...one person!

My parents struggled and my dad worked two jobs..they scrimped and saved and eventually bought some land in southern NH. We all worked to clear that land...build a house and finally we were able to leave behind that small apartment and move into our new home...and what a home it was. 

I'll never forget that first Christmas..it was so magical..so special!!

This is really for my mom and dad...they are my hero's...I don't think I can ever really tell them how much their sacrifice means to me and how much I love them.  For anyone reading this.... Make Memories this year and have a Wonderful Extra Special Holiday!

                                                           

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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• Dec. 21, 2006 - New Hampshire's White Powder

By Monika McGillicuddy

 The weather outside is delightful...winter's coming...just in time for the Holidays and New Hampshire's Ski season.



New Hampshire  offers a wide variety of outdoor activities and pursuits..from coastal beaches to the White Mountains...there is a little bit of everything and something for everyone!

Traveling to New England don't forget to pack your skis...don't have any skis? not to worry there are plenty of rental shops and ski shops that will gladly fit you with the perfect pair. Explore Ski NH... it is a jam packed website full of ski and snow boarding information.

While my children were growing we spent many weekends skiing in New Hampshire and Maine.  Ski clubs, ski lessons, ski meets and races...It was a great family activity, one that involved the whole family and our extended group of friends. Nothing better than being on white powder on top of a mountain on a bright sunny day...ahhh perfection!  So whether your an expert skier or just beginning you'll be delighted by our ski areas.
Personally I can tell you..I am!

 




Let's take a peak at some of our fine New Hampshire Ski areas...but be sure to check out for SkiNH for complete listings and maps of all ski areas in New Hampshire.

Attitash in Bartlet NH states "We are making loads of snow!" check out the website for pricing and trail information.

Black Mountain  in Jackson NH has a long ski history extending all the way back to 1935 when NH first began to make people sit up and take notice of it's beautiful ski areas.

Bretton Woods Mount Washington  Ski Resort...This is where my kids learned to Ski and I spent many weekends on the trails.

Cannon Mountain  Franconia Notch State Park...the views here are phenomenal!!!

Cranmore Mountain in North Conway, When you tire of skiing this is the home of New Hampshire premiere shopping outlets...bling-bling-bling!

Crotched Mountain located in Bennington NH, they claim that snow making is currently active on about 90% of the mountain and they're not kidding around.

Gunstock Located in Gilford NH, will  be open for skiing and riding on December 19th.

Loon Mountain in Lincoln NH, has had a Santa spotting-Santa is a skier and he likes to relax before the holiday by skiing at Loon Mountain. So you better be good and look for Santa on the slopes!!!

 Mount Sunapee  in Newbury NH, is open with terrain for all abilities including top-to-bottom skiing and riding from the Summit and South Peak.

Pats Peak in Henniker NH, claim they've fired up the snow guns and plan on keeping them going to bring you even more open terrain as soon as possible!

Waterville Valley in Waterville Valley NH...This place is a legend in my household as my boys ski raced here most winters.

Wildcat Mountain in  Pinkham Notch NH, ride NH's highest 4 passenger Gondola for awesome scenery.

Looking for some wonderful places to rest while skiing check out the offerings at Ski NH's Lodging Guide


For your learning pleasure...Some Snow Surface Terminology

I'm sure there are more but these are the most common;

Packed Powder - very dry natural or man-made compacted snow...fun to ski on.

Packed Snow - packed surface of natural or man-made snow...nice-nice stuff.

Groomed Snow - machine groomed...not bad at all :)

Groomed Granular - old snow base that has been machine-groomed to provide loose granular surface...nice.

Loose Granular - old base that is loose...not bad at all.

Frozen Granular - hard-surfaced granular base that has been frozen after thaw..."Opps" type of skiing for me.

Wet Granular - loose or frozen granular snow that has been subjected to warm temperatures...mushy stuff.

Spring Skiing - my favorite...old base that has been thawed and re-frozen by cold nights and warm days so that the surface becomes heavy...I like this stuff because it keeps me slow. I'm not a speed freak!

 If you want more inside information about New Hampshire real estate visit our website here  or if you'd like to search NH homes for sale on or near ski areas of your choice or anywhere at all in the state of New Hampshire.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Remember even if you don't have snow...New Hampshire's ski areas have the finest snow making equipment available and that means you can enjoy skiing even if you see green out your window!

Need more info e-mail me at monika@monikamcgillicuddy.com

Have a Happy and a Safe Holiday Season!!!

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• Dec. 14, 2006 - Opportunity Time For New Hampshire's Buyers

By Monika McGillicuddy

The New Hampshire real estate market is definitely what I would call a buyers market. No doubt about it! So while it's pretty cold up here IT IS a GREAT time to be a BUYER  in New Hampshire.  Not only is there a good selection of homes available but prices have dropped and in some case more than 10% compared to a year ago. All this makes buying your first home or investing in real estate a great opportunity. 


If you're a buyer and you've been saving for that dream home...not sure if you're there yet and confused about Private Mortgage Insurance or if you are a REALTOR and have a hard time really explaining Private Mortgage Insurance to your buyers or better yet why they have to have it.

Read on because I know I have struggled with it...so I asked one of my favorite Mortgage Consultants to blog about PMI and the little gift Congress recently gave many folks this season. It might make a difference to someone on the fence about buying...sometimes there is no better time than the present..to give yourself the gift of home ownership...of course if you need a good REALTOR call me.


So here is Dave Antczak's take on it....

PMI……private mortgage insurance.  It’s designed to protect the lender against losses should the borrower default on the loan, especially in the first few years.  

Until recently, mortgage consultants and borrowers would jump through hoops in an effort to avoid it when the borrower didn’t have 20% to put down on a house. 

The typical ways to minimize the cost of PMI were to either use tax advantage mortgage insurance, (also known as TAMI), where the lender would build the cost of the insurance into the rate or roll it into the loan as a lump sum; or they would use a “piggy-back” loan, in which the borrower would have an 80% first mortgage, (thus avoiding the PMI requirement), and then a second mortgage to cover the difference between the down payment and the remaining 20%.  Though the second loan has a higher rate, a “piggy-back” is often less expensive than PMI. 

These options don’t always work for every borrower, however.  Kevin Schneider, president of the PMI firm, Genworth Mortgage Insurance, estimates that in the coming year, 1 million buyers will sign up for mortgages with PMI.

But due to an early Christmas present from Congress, many more folks will now be able to save a little on PMI

Early on Sunday morning, lawmakers made it possible for many homeowners to receive a tax deduction for their PMI.  Homeowners with less than $100,000 in taxable income are eligible, and will average a tax savings of around $300, according to experts.

“It enables folks of low to moderate income, the traditional first-time home-buyers, to get into a low down-payment mortgage,” said Schneider.

But here’s the best part.  By taking advantage of the seldom utilized TAMI tactic referenced earlier, in which the PMI cost is rolled into the mortgage, borrowers can save even more.  It’s always been the best way to go according to many, including TV financial advisor Suze Orman, because it increases the interest deduction and adds less to the monthly payment.  And now with the new tax rule, the entire up-front premium becomes tax deductible the first year. 

On a $200,000 mortgage, that translates into a Christmas gift from Congress of over $1,000……not bad.  Happy Holidays!

 
   

David Antczak

Home Loan Consultant

603-327-0245 - office

 

617-510-1112 - mobile

david_antczak@cmvhomeloans.com

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• Dec. 8, 2006 - New Hampshire Market Trends II

New Hampshire Real Estate Market Trends II

The New Hampshire Association of REALTORS just released their market trend study. I've reprinted it below in it's entirety as it has some very interesting data.  Peter Francese does an awesome job with our Market Trends and in this issue he talks about some of the things that don't show up in market studies and trends but that do dramatically affect us all.

While the story that our Market trends tells is definitely chilling... both for real estate professionals and home sellers but for buyers it's some mighty fine news.
One interesting thing is that while our average sales price was virtually the same as it was a year ago the actual solds are significantly lower.  The predictions however for our year end residential sales volume will be at least a billion dollars below last year....now that hurts!!!!

 To quote Peter "That’s damn  cold". 




November/December 2006

It's been a cold year for real estate

by Peter Francese

November may have seemed warmer than usual here in New Hampshire, but there’s a deep chill in real estate. Three of my neighbors perfectly illustrate how the sales statistics, unpleasant as they are, do not completely reflect just how hard this market shift has been on Realtors.

Each of these three neighbors has put his or her house up for sale in the past year. There have been several open houses and dozens of showings, at no small cost to the Realtors involved. But none have sold, and now all three properties have been taken off the market. In at least one case, the reason was an unrealistic price expectation.

None of these “No Sale” examples will show up in the statewide data, nor are the hundreds of unpaid hours the Realtors spent recorded anywhere. Such are the limitations of real estate information systems we have.

What the data from the Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN) and the New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority (NHHFA) does show is that when homes have sold, the average price was virtually the same as it was a year ago. But the number of homes sold is down significantly.

During the first 10 months of 2006, according to NNEREN, the average residential sale price, not including condominiums, was $309,000, which was only $1,000 less than during the same period last year. But the number of units sold dropped 19 percent, from just over 14,000 to under 11,400, and sales volume fell by over $800 million.

Condominium sales did not fare much better. The average sale price during the first 10 months of 2006 was $207,000, down just 3 percent from the $201,000 during the same period last year. But the number of units sold fell 18 percent, from 5,000 to about 4,200, and sales volume dropped by about $160 million.

When 2006 is finally over, residential sales volume in New Hampshire will be at least a billion dollars below last year. That’s damn cold.

The question is: What about next year? Next year’s sales may be better, but it will depend to some extent on an increase of jobs in our region (which have had virtually no growth in the past six months) and a continuing desire of Baby Boomers to own two or more homes.

We may be in a situation where the lack of affordable workforce housing is having a significant impact on the ability of employers to find workers. This suggests that perhaps the prevalence of growth moratoriums in New Hampshire towns is having a negative effect on our workforce growth.

As the table below shows, residential home sales, excluding condominiums, declined in every county for the first 10 months of this year versus last year. The average sale price rose in half the counties, but was flat or declining elsewhere.

Trend in residential home sales (excluding condominiums)
January to October 2005 vs. January to October 2006

         
County
Units sold Jan.-Oct '06 Percent change 2005-06 Average sale price Jan.-Oct. '06 Percent change 2005-06
Belknap
725 -14 $335,000 +5
Carroll
783 -11 $347,000 +8
Cheshire
752 -5 $237,000 +3
Coos
338 -9 $129,000 +2
Grafton
801 -10 $267,000 -1
Hillsborough
2,975 -23 $322,000 0
Merrimack
1,222 -18 $284,000 0
Rockingham
2,238 -26 $382,000 -1
Strafford
1,066 -20 $270,000 -3
Sullivan
461 -9 $231,000 -6
Statewide
11,363 -19 $309,000 -1
         

Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network

NOTE: Statistics are based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN) for the respective periods shown for the respective regions in the State of New Hampshire. All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® and not that of NNEREN.

The Real Estate Market Trends newsletter is provided for the benefit of the members of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. ©Copyright 2006 New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Peter Francese is the Demographic Advisor to the New Hampshire Association of

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This Blog is all about real world real estate, no pie in the sky, just the information needed to help you make informed decisions. Looking for information on a career in real estate? Buying or selling? Looking for market data and trends? No crystal ball here but 22 years of solid real estate experience at your disposal. Humor me as we travel around a bit and discuss everything from family to business.

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