Sep. 5, 2010 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Aug-Sept 2010

West Side Santa Cruz Real Estate Update August-September 2010 Hello! Happy September, and welcome to the new version of my monthly newsletter!  I hope you like it.  Since the number of subscribers has been growing each month, I've decided to migrate to a tool that will allow me to easily send the information to even more people.  Additionally, there are new features! For example, you can forward this on to your friends if you think they'd be interested, and they can easily add themselves to to my list.  To forward, just click the "forward to friend" link at the bottom of this email!  Thoughts or feedback about this new format?  Let me know, I'd love to hear from you! Regarding the statistics this month - it looks like prices are holding relatively steady: the median and average prices haven't changed much from last month.  However we only had about 13 houses close escrow in August - which is a little on the low side, especially for the summer.  There were 17 that sold one year ago.  My sense of things, based on what I'm seeing out there, is that things are still moving a bit slower than they did this spring.  The first time home buyer tax credit expired, and although there weren't too many people buying homes on the west side using that credit, it still took steam out of the market as a whole when it went away. The economy hasn't rebounded enough to make up for that so we're floundering a bit.  Will this cause prices to fall?  My guess is we are going to see a bit of a dip in the statistics that come out later this year.  Don't expect anything dramatic - those crazy people who think the sky is falling are just trying to stir things up! Barring any disaster, it looks to me like we're headed for a soft period and perhaps a drop in prices that won't be more than about 5-8%. Have you ever wondered how many homes for sale in Santa Cruz are short sales?  (Short sales are homes for sale, where the list price is not sufficient to cover the mortgage debt owed on the house.)  Have you ever wondered how many bank owned properties are currently for sale here? Well, my website (http://MMcDRealtor.com) provides this exact information! Check it out - there are links in the main navigation on the left side of the page to get you exactly this information. I hope to see you around at some open houses!  Come tell me hello and let me know what's new.  I love seeing you! Cheers, -Michael (831) 331-3183 DRE#01467997    Single Family Homes that Closed Escrow in August:   Single Family Homes that are Pending as of Today (August 3rd):

Aug. 20, 2010 - Where, when and by how much will housing prices change?

Housing prices will plummet in most cities but not in certain other ones - or so that claim is made in the article below.  So - where do you live and how will prices be affected there - check it out!  For those of you in the Santa Cruz area it seems that they are predicting that we will be flat to down a bit until next January, and then from January 2011 to January 2012 we will see a 6.7% rise !! 

money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/real_estate/0910/gallery.housing_price_forecast/index.html

I must say that I would agree with their short term predictions regarding the rest of this year.  I don't see any signs of the market turning upward any time on the immediate horizon.  In fact, some of the most recent things I've seen have suggested the opposite - inventory has grown a bit and the number of closed transactions have fallen.   Is that due to the "summer slow down" where everyone is on vacation, or is that a trend?  Hmmm, well I'd like to see how things play out in September.  If it's still slow by mid to late September then that could change things.  While it's possible things could go down a bit - by all means I don't expect any bottoms to fall out.  There are too many people interested in living (part time or full time) by the beach in our amazing and wonderful part of the world for that to happen! 

So, all you buyers out there - don't wait too long - if this article is right then you might have about four months left before the market turns! 

Jul. 28, 2010 - How much of the market is Short Sale vs. REO vs. Regular in Santa Cruz?

With all the talk about Short Sales and REOs (bank owned properties), have you ever wondered how many of these types of sales happen here in Santa Cruz county?  I have!  So let's take a look at some statistics. 

First let's look in the city of Santa Cruz.  I am not including unincorporated portions of the city - this is just the city proper.  For those familiar with the area designations in the MLS, that's areas 42 and 43.  There were only two REO properties that closed escrow in June:

	Street Address	Area	DOM	Original List Price	List Price	Sale Price	Beds	Baths	Sq Ft	Lot Size Edit
1	711 BROADWAY	42 East Santa Cruz	6	$292,900	$292,900	$300,000	1	1	520	1742.00 SF
2	216 SACRAMENTO AVE	43 West Santa Cruz	329	$2,355,000	$1,595,000	$1,350,000	4	3	3000	6969.00 SF

Now, in that same time period, we had four short sales close:

	Street Address	Area	DOM	Original List Price	List Price	Sale Price	Beds	Baths	Sq Ft	Lot Size Edit
1	122 STOCKTON AVE	43 West Santa Cruz	10	$699,500	$699,500	$675,000	2	2	1100	4791.00 SF
2	136 CAYUGA ST	42 East Santa Cruz	18	$483,000	$483,000	$500,000	2	1	784	2308.00 SF
3	131 PEARL ST	42 East Santa Cruz	134	$499,000	$374,800	$365,000	3	3	1475	3049.00 SF
4	120 GRANDVIEW ST	43 West Santa Cruz	14	$397,500	$397,500	$415,000	2	1	768	3920.00 SF

And finally, we had ten "normal" or what we sometimes call "organic" (how very Santa Cruz) sales. 

So, within the city, that means that about 1/3 of all sales in June were either short or bank owned.  That's pretty high, don't you think? 

How does that compare to the county as a whole? If you talk to people, the general consensus is that there are more Short Sales and REOs outside the city limits... well the statistics confirm that:

County wide, there were 31 REO sales in June, while there were 34 Short Sales and 78 Organic sales.  So, just a bit under 50% of all sales are distressed properties!!  WOW!

The conclusion:  If you own a property in distress, or close to being in distress YOU ARE NOT ALONE!  It also means that agents such as myself are getting more and more experience with these kinds of situations, and the more experience we have, the better we are at getting the job done. 

It also means that if you are NOT someone in distress, you are very lucky in one regard - but on the other hand if you want or need to sell, then your competition may very well be a distressed property.  The bottom line is that I don't see any price appreciation on the horizon... which is great news for buyers out there, not so great news for sellers. 

What do you think?  I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Jul. 9, 2010 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Jun-July 2010

The big news in the West Side statistics this month is that there were only 8 homes that closed escrow in June.  That’s pretty darned low for the middle of summer!  Looking back as far as 2004, I can’t find a slower June.   This is the level of sales activity normally seen in the winter months, and about ¼ of the activity we saw last June.  Wow!  What’s going on?  A contributing factor may be the end of the tax credits, but that can’t be the entire story… as those aren’t a motivating factor for every single buyer.  I have to wonder if it has more to do with larger economic factors that causing a lack of confidence in buyers.  The stock market is back down, and without any clear view towards home price appreciation, buyers are still wanting the “killer deal” to help justify why they should buy an asset that isn’t necessarily poised to increase in value… at least not yet.  So many buyers are holding back and waiting… wondering if prices will go down further before they go up, or perhaps some great deal is around the corner.   I think this is especially true for the more expensive homes.  We’ve seen several short sales and bank owned properties at the higher prices… are there more to come?  Will they have incredible prices?  That seems to be on the mind of the buyers.

On the more positive side of things, prices are still way down compared to a few years ago, and we now have record-setting low interest rates.  For buyers with a long term view, this could really be an opportunity of a lifetime!  Here’s some more information about that:
http://www.cbnorcalevents.com/RealityCheck/10July/NCJulyarticle.html

I suppose you have also heard about some of the “not so good” things going on in Santa Cruz recently, but I’m happy to see that the community is taking a stand.  Our city is a great place and it needs to stay that way!  Have you heard of the “Take Back Santa Cruz” group?  Here is their web site:
http://www.takebacksantacruz.com/
Just goes to show the great spirit behind our community – and how we can collectively make a difference.  Check it out!

If you know anyone thinking of selling, or considering a purchase, please think of me!  I’d be thrilled to make sure they get the best service and results possible.

Cheers,
-Michael
 

Description	Jun 09	Jul 09	Aug 09	Sep 09	Oct 09	Nov 09	Dec 09	Jan 10	Feb 10	Mar 10	Apr 10	May 10	Jun 10
Sold Average Price	632	661	677	805	626	745	632	715	663	670	811	729	695
Sold Median Price	626	643	660	710	595	633	599	664	601	625	743	660	675

Description	Jun 09	Jul 09	Aug 09	Sep 09	Oct 09	Nov 09	Dec 09	Jan 10	Feb 10	Mar 10	Apr 10	May 10	Jun 10
Active Inventory	66	67	69	73	65	60	47	41	52	55	57	67	69
Sold Listings	36	35	17	16	12	17	13	5	11	8	18	19	8

May. 7, 2010 - A short sale story - all's well that ends well?

In January of 2009, I went away for a long weekend with a few friends.  We rented a wonderful house at Sea Ranch, an amazing place on the northern California coast, about an hour south of Mendocino. Of course, I brought my laptop because I can't stand to be away from the business of real estate for long!

So, one morning I'm sitting at the dining room table at this house, having a lovely conversation with my dear friend Karen (not her real name) about the fact that she was thinking of moving because her landlord was raising the rent.
I asked her:  "So, have you considered buying?  You can get some amazing deals right now, you might be surprised!" 

Her immediate response was skepticism, but after I used my laptop to bring up a list of some very affordable condos, the seeds of possibility were planted.

In the next several months we looked at a lot of condos.  The market seemed to have plenty of short sales and foreclosures, so we were hoping to take advantage of that.  We wrote offers on several properties… but were never successful with any of the bank owned (“REO”) properties since Karen needed FHA financing.  It seems that the banks don’t look too kindly on someone who needs 96.5% financing (only 3.5% cash down payment).  There were lots of other buyers with wads of cash, and we always got beat out by them.

It would have been easy to get discouraged by our lack of success with the REOs.  But we didn’t and fortunately we found more success in the short sale arena, where the competition wasn’t as fierce.

Why was it easier for us to get in on a short sale?  Because they really aren’t any fun.  Not for anyone.  In order for us to actually succeed in purchasing a short sale, the seller’s bank (or banks!) need to decide that they’re willing to forgive some of the debt they are owed.  In order to do that, they go through a VERY lengthy process of evaluating the financial hardship of the seller, and the pros and cons of taking the property in foreclosure vs. accepting the current (short) sale.  The seller needs to bare their financial soul to the lenders, and the buyer needs to wait and hope that the sale will be approved.  It sometimes isn’t approved, so that wait can be in vain.

So, do all of you know why it’s called a “short” sale?  It means that the seller can’t sell the property for a price that would allow them to completely pay off their loan(s).  The funds received for the sale are SHORT of the amount required to satisfy the debt.  OK?

Back to Karen.  We wrote offers on several short sales – because you don’t know if the seller’s bank will approve it, you often get in on several of them to make sure that you get at least ONE of them.  We wound up being submitted for three of them.  In one case, several months later, the bank wanted us to increase the offer beyond Karen’s comfort zone.  So we gave up on that one.  On another, it went into foreclosure – clearly the seller’s bank decided that the short sale wasn’t worth it.

But we still had one.  And the listing agent seemed to really be “on the ball” in terms of getting things done, so we waited.  And waited.  And waited.  Finally – in the first few months of 2010, more than 9 months after writing the offer, it seemed that bank approval as imminent.  Ah but it was a fake out!  A new problem appeared: what about all those delinquent Homeowner’s Association dues, to the tune of over $6,000?  The seller wasn’t willing to pay.  The seller’s lender would only pay half.  What about the other $3000?  Karen didn’t have that kind of cash lying around!  So, we decided to try increasing the price of the condo by $3000 and asking the seller’s bank to foot the entire bill.  After many weeks of negotiating, waiting, prodding… finally the seller’s lender decided this was OK. 

But that solution only works if the condo will appraise for the increased price!!  So we had to cross our fingers and hope… and fortunately it worked!!  HOORAY! 

The additional delays meant that we didn’t close until early May 2010 – 11 months and two weeks after we wrote the offer.  Wow… how many buyers out there would be willing to wait that long?  Would you, especially since it’s not certain that it will succeed?  In the end Karen got a really wonderful place for a great price, but the amount of stress, and the amount of work that was required makes you wonder!

Congratulations to my dear friend, I am so happy that this ended well and I’m so glad to have been there for you.  As for the future, I truly hope that short sales become easier.  For everyone.  Seems to me that there is a lot of room for improvement in this process.
 

Feb. 15, 2010 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Jan-Feb 2010

Happy February!  I call this month the beginning of springtime in Santa Cruz – did you notice the cherry blossoms around town?  These and other beautiful flowers are welcoming the return of longer days!

We had a pretty quiet holiday season in west side real estate – only FIVE closings in January.  While that sounds low, it’s actually fairly normal for this time of year.  The number of closings typically start to pick up in April and May – which means those homes sold in March and April…. And those that sell typically come on the market in February and March.  First things first – bring on the new listings!

Inventory has been low so far this year – even a little lower than normal.  There were only 37 homes for sale in January.  However that number has already started to creep upwards.  We’re at 40 homes on the market as of today and next week (post Super Bowl) we will probably add several more.  So if you’re a buyer who has been frustrated due to lack of inventory, just a little bit of patience may be in order.  By the end of this month I suspect you’ll have some new things to consider.  The only question is whether we have developed any pent up demand for certain types of homes!  Don’t be afraid of a multiple offer scenario – if you want something you can still get it!  Talk to me and we can strategize your way to home ownership.

The median and average prices for January bounced off the December lows – so we are zig sagging our way around the low 600K to mid 700K range.  We’ve been there since last May – so I’m going to call this a FLAT MARKET on the west side since last May.  At the moment I don’t see any reason to think it’s going to change much either, at least in the next several months.  We have an economy that has improved a bit (except for the jobs scenario), but we also expect interest rates to start creeping up.  I’m thinking those are offsetting factors.  Will they completely cancel one another out?  Hmmmm, time will tell.   Will jobs start to come back? Will the economy improve very slowly or will we pick up quickly?  How soon will inflation kick in, and how hard?  These are the questions I have on my mind because I believe they will help me predict what we will see in the market – both here on the west side and in general.

Yes of course short sales and foreclosures will still be a factor, but they have been a factor for the past year, so what’s new?!   It’s not like these properties haven’t been selling – they are!  If they weren’t that would mean something. The key question in my mind is whether the short sales and foreclosures will continue to show up at approximately the current rate.  If they stay about the same – and in terms of our LOCAL situation I suspect that’s what we will get, then I don’t see how things could shift dramatically.

Were you hoping for something dramatic?  Sorry.  I know, it certainly would spice things up, wouldn’t it?  But I have to tell it like I see it.
Stay tuned though – I think we’re setting the stage for an active spring – once inventory picks up I think the number of sales will really spike! 

If you’re thinking of buying or selling in this market, talk to me.  I’m happy to explore strategies with you and find what works best for you personal situation.
Best wishes for a wonderful spring!

Description	Jan 09	Feb 09	Mar 09	Apr 09	May 09	Jun 09	Jul 09	Aug 09	Sep 09	Oct 09	Nov 09	Dec 09	Jan 10
Sold Average Price	840	760	810	731	685	632	661	677	805	626	771	632	715
Sold Median Price	797	775	742	685	600	626	643	660	710	595	692	599	664

 

Description	Jan 09	Feb 09	Mar 09	Apr 09	May 09	Jun 09	Jul 09	Aug 09	Sep 09	Oct 09	Nov 09	Dec 09	Jan 10
Sold Listings	6	6	7	11	13	36	35	17	16	12	16	13	5
Active Inventory	43	55	69	66	65	65	66	67	70	64	58	45	37

Jan. 6, 2010 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Dec 2009-Jan 2010

Happy New Year!

The real estate market continues to be flat, but the stock market is up fairly significantly.  That means people are walking around with more money in their portfolios than they did one year ago.  For those of you with stock portfolios, I’m sure you’ve noticed:  2009 was a very good year for stocks.  Early in the year there was a multi-year low, a GREAT buying opportunity!  Now that prices have rebounded, perhaps it’s a good selling opportunity?

Take a look at this chart:

Now, how does that affect the real estate market?  The wealthier people are, the more they will consider purchasing real estate.  Time to pick up something for investment purposes?  Hmm, the stock values have gone up but the home values haven’t.  Sell high (stocks) and buy low (real estate) --- sound like a good proposition?  I think it does for some.

At the same time, interest rates are still low – not as low as they were a month or two ago – but still low, with a prospect of going higher.  The Fed  has cut back on their mortgage backed security purchase program, which will help rates to go up.  For people who want to get a loan, now may be a better time to do so than in a few months.

As far as the West Side is concerned, here are the highlights:
• In December, nothing over $812K sold.  The median and average prices dropped back down near the lows we saw in October.
• HOWEVER, we had 13 sales which is very healthy for December.
• Inventory is very low – under 45 homes on the market.  However, a few new ones have already started to trickle in, and I expect more to come.
• Lower priced homes are selling quickly, often with multiple offers.  There is a lot of competition for the homes that are perceived as good values.  Take a look at the sale prices in December – FOUR of them sold for higher than list price.

I am cautiously optimistic about the next few months!  As long as interest rates don’t change too much I expect we will have a very healthy market in the first few months of the year, especially for homes under $800K.   We need to keep an eye on the world of lending – this will play a huge factor in the market this year.  How high will rates rise? Will jumbo loans (greater than $729,750) become more easy to get, or will they continue to have a very strict criteria?   If we only knew the answer for sure we’d have a great view into how this year will play out.

If you’re thinking about doing something in real estate this year, LET ME KNOW, I’d love to help.
Best wishes for a FANTASTIC 2010!
-Michael

Dec. 7, 2009 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Nov-Dec 2009

There were sixteen sales in November on the west side – not shabby for this time of year.  The median and average prices are also staying relatively the same – we’ve been dancing around between $600K and $800K for about a year now.

I’ve been singing the blues (for sellers) regarding the high end for awhile now… and the song continues, but it’s not all bad news.  On the surface it looks really good in November – 3 houses over $1 million sold!  But let’s look a little closer.  700 Spring Street came on the market in late 2006 at just under $4 million, and never sold.  The owners put it back on the market this year at $2.2 million (that’s quite a shift!) and it still took about 4 months to sell – and they had to accept $300K below the list price.  Then there are the other two which sold very quickly: 648 Spring St and 119 Estates.  First, I should mention that the person who bought 648 Spring was the seller for 119 Estates.  This smart person was able to get the Spring St house at a very good price for what it is, so he was willing to put 119 Estates on the market at an extremely appealing price.  That’s the opportunity that exists now – find the really good buy, and then go ahead and sell for less than you’d like, it all comes out it in the wash!  And, you might wind up with a “lower than you would have otherwise had” tax basis.   If capital gains taxes is an issue for you, those could be less as well.  Hey, we all could use to pay less taxes, don’t you think?

So – all you high end sellers out there – if you’re going to buy as well, then don’t fret.  I won’t sing the blues to you, rather it’s a nice up-tempo number coming your way!

I’ve seen some rather high end beach homes sell elsewhere in the county in November.  There were 3 that sold for over $2million!  But I will say this to you:  two years ago they probably would have sold for about $3million, so don’t assume they’re doing much better.  (Let me know if you want to see the details on those, I’m happy to send that to you.)

Looking forward, we have 21 pendings as of today, but all of them are under $860K.  What a happy segment of the market we have in those lower prices… price stability, medium to low inventory, a good number of buyers out there ready to make a move.  Life for sellers isn’t bad.

As always, I’m available for you if you have any specific questions, comments or needs. 

Nov. 9, 2009 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Oct-Nov 2009

This month I have some new and improved graphics that I hope will help you understand our local market even better.  Please let me know what you think of the changes – do they help? Are they clearer?  Your feedback and opinions are welcomed and important to me!

Regarding the market, if I were to create a headline for this month’s newsletter it would be “West Side Santa Cruz Prices and Inventory Both Continue their Gentle Decline.” 

The first chart below shows that the median and average sales prices.  October numbers show that the median and average sales prices haven’t been lower in any month over the last two years.  The trend lines show that the fall has been a gentle one, but the upward trend we saw in August and September did not continue and we fell off to new lows.

Then we look at our inventory numbers and we get a completely different story – inventory is also trending downward, which can cause a little upward pressure on prices. So the news isn’t all bad for the sellers among us.  Of course that probably depends on what segment of the market the seller is in, because we didn’t have any sales over $1 million in October.  I wish I had better news for the sellers at the high end but the difficulty in this segment continues.  Jumbo loans come with big restrictions, and the all-cash buyers out there want incredible deals, and most tend to think we haven’t reached the bottom of the market yet – and with regard to higher end listings, they might be right.  The low end is a different story, I haven’t seen those prices falling and I doubt they will.

At any rate, while the inventory has fallen, the number of homes selling has risen.  So – things ARE selling!  Buyers are out there, especially for homes under $800,000.

Happy Thanksgiving!!  If I don’t see you or speak to you before Thanksgiving, may it be happy and I hope you find lots of reasons to be grateful.  I think we live in an amazing and beautiful part of the world, and I love living in our wonderful community here in Santa Cruz.  What do you think?

Oct. 12, 2009 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Sept-Oct 2009

Happy Autumn!  The air has a chill and you can almost sense the coming rains… are you ready?  Is your house ready?  It’s time to think about your gutters being cleared, any drains on your property should be ready and clear of debris.  A little forethought now could save you an emergency situation in the middle of a storm.

Remember where we were a year ago?  Major financial issues were in the news and on everyone’s mind.  Home buyers were scared and sales fell.  There was talk of panic. Now we get to look back on it from a year later and what we see is very interesting!  This past month the median and average prices on the west side shot back up to almost exactly where they were one year ago.  The number of sales – 16 –  is up 25% from the 12 we had in September ’08.   So, prices are very similar but the volume of sales is up, which perhaps indicate that some confidence is filtering back into the market.  More buyers are buying, but they are also demanding good deals so the prices aren’t rising.

The high end of the market is still suffering the most, although we had four closings over $1 Million in September.  (Two of which were my listings, I have to note.)  That doesn’t mean those sales were terribly easy, as a lot of negotiating is going on, and when buyers know that there isn’t much competition (if any) out there, they tend to ask for the moon, and sometimes they just about get it!  Looking forward, only 2 out of 24 pending homes are above $1 Million, so the trend continues.  I also tend to believe that a “shadow inventory” of higher end homes is building – meaning people who are wanting to sell but are waiting for what they believe will be better conditions in the coming months or years.  I believe that will keep any rebound we will eventually have from being too quick and dramatic.

In the mean time I hope this newsletter finds you well.  If there are things on your mind that you’d like to discuss with me please don’t hesitate to let me know, I’m here for you!

Sep. 13, 2009 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Aug-Sept 2009

I’m writing this on Sept 11^th and remembering the events of eight years ago – a day that changed just about everything.  When people ask me “what do you think the market will be doing next year?” I sometimes think back to that day, and realize how iffy any prediction can be! One never knows what might happen to change just about everything again – for the bad or even for the good. 

Aug. 11, 2009 - West Santa Cruz Market Update July-Aug 2009

Sales on the west side are up – even after subtracting out the eleven homes at the university that sold, that means we had 23 single family homes that sold in July – up from the mid-teens one year ago.  On the other hand, the prices are still down – we continue to move sideways in the market, with a very small (almost negligible) increase to the median and average prices over last month.

Jul. 8, 2009 - West Santa Cruz Market Update Jun-July 2009

The data this month is a little skewed by some sales that happened up at UCSC.  There were 23 homes on campus, sold exclusively to UCSC faculty and staff, that were added to the MLS data in June.  That affected the number of sales and to a small degree the median and average prices.  If we subtract out those 23 sales, we are left with 13 “regular” sales, which is the exact same number we had in May.  Steady as she goes!

The June median and average numbers stayed very close to the May numbers, despite the USCS sales.  Without the UCSC sales, the values would have been a little bit higher – but not by much, maybe $50-70K.  Again, steady as she goes!

With 36 pending homes on the West Side, our market is fairly active.  29 out of the 36 have list prices under $800K which continues to prove that the lower end is the active part of the market.  But, we have more higher end pendings this month than last month – four over $1million, rather than just two -  a very small but noticeable uptick which should cause our median and average prices to trend higher next month.

What an amazing weather pattern we are experiencing – mostly clear cool weather – a great time to be out and about.  If you are out there this weekend on West Cliff, please stop in my open houses at 1122 West Cliff, both Saturday and Sunday 1-4pm.  This is my new listing, I’ve been working on getting it ready for a little over a month, and I’m proud of the result!  Come see!

Best wishes to you for a great summer!
-Michael
831.331.3183

THE PAST YEAR:

Jun. 6, 2009 - May 2009 West Side Santa Cruz Real Estate Trends

While the West Side market continues to be as good or better than anywhere else in the county, I must clearly acknowledge the truth about our local market here: We are down about 20% from one year ago, and over 30% from the first few months of 2007, which was the peak of the market here on the West Side. This month, my graph below and the table of statistics goes all the way back to January of 2007 to make my point. You can see the orange and yellow lines dancing their way lower. Yes, there were a few spikes up and down along the way but the trend is undeniable.  

May. 7, 2009 - April 2009 Real Estate Statistics, West Santa Cruz

The April statistics are out, and the predictions I made in last month’s email about West Side market statistics were mostly right on – I said the Median price would drop a bit, and the sales volume would be up – both are true!  However it looks like the average also dropped a bit and I thought it would stay about the same.  Ok, two out of three… not perfect, but I was pretty darned close!

Apr. 9, 2009 - March 2009 West Side Santa Cruz Real Estate Stats

If you've been to Santa Cruz recently, perhaps you've noticed the ice plant starting to bloom along West Cliff Drive!  It’s a great time of year to walk along the bluffs, since the winter rains have cleaned and greened things up! 

On the real estate front, activity is starting to pick up, and deals are starting to be made.  Most of those deals are being made on the properties listed for under $1 million.  The high end market is still pretty quiet, BUT I can tell you from my own observation that interest in these properties is picking up.  A few months ago it was hard to get anyone to express any interest at all, the reluctance of people to actually buy was so great.  Now things are a bit different… is it because the stock market has improved a bit?  Is it the spring weather?  Is it a bit of optimism that we have at least a partial handle on our economic problems?  Your guess is as good as mine, but I assert that it’s there!

In terms of the raw data, in March the number of deals and sales volume are only up slightly, but there are a whopping 21 PENDING single family homes, an indication that people were out there in March ready to buy.  Inventory is finally up to normal levels, so buyers have choices!

What will the figures look like next month?  I think we’ll see a slightly lower median price, average will stay about the same, and the sales volume will be UP!

Call me, email me or stop by my open houses, I have my nose in this stuff every day and love to chat about it!

Mar. 22, 2009 - West Santa Cruz Upgrades!

How exciting it is to see some new and interesting things happening on the West Side.  The New Leaf Market opened on Fair Ave - a couple of blocks from the old (and small) location on Mission Street.  Wow, what a gorgeous place!!  I'm so excited to have it around.

And of course the newly remodeled Safeway is expected to open this coming fall.  I can't wait for that!   That store is simply way too overcrowded and in need of upgrades.  And a big new parking lot in front, OK I love the idea of biking around town but let's face it sometimes you're in a car and you just want to find a place to park without major hassles. 

Have you all tried the new Hawg's Seafood restaurant on Mission St.?  How nice is it to finally have a good seafood place right here?  Check out their website too:  http://www.hawgsseafood.com/   And yes, they have a pretty good bar too.  :-)

Let's hear it for even more upgrades!  We deserve it, don't you think?

Mar. 22, 2009 - February 2009 Real Estate Stats - West Santa Cruz

The West Side statistics for February are nowhere near as bad as you might imagine, given the economic environment we have.  The number of sales is low for this time of year – only 6 in February as compared to 10 last year – but the median and average prices are almost identical to those of a year ago!  Hard to believe, but true.  The numbers simply don’t reflect the atmosphere in real estate.  Are we insulated from it all here on the West Side?  To some degree perhaps we are.  I will tell you this – it is much more difficult to get a buyer to actually write an offer these days!  Reluctance is abound.  Buyers want to know they are getting a tremendous deal – so that they can hedge against possible value decreases in the coming months (or longer).  Most buyers seem convinced that we aren’t at the “bottom” yet – although I always point out that we will never know the bottom until it’s in our rear view mirror.

Looking at the sold properties in February you can see how much negotiation is going on, how much buyers are asking sellers to make concessions, in particular on the more expensive properties.  It’s even MORE obvious when looking at the pendings – WOW!   Look at the price reductions required just to get some properties sold. 

On the other hand, lower priced homes on the West Side that are priced well seem to sell quickly and for very close to the asking price.  Why is that?  Smaller loans are easier to get, interest rates are good.  Larger loans are more difficult to obtain and there is less cash out there in buyer’s pockets – portfolios have taken a HUGE hit in the past year.

In the end however we live in an amazing place that is highly desirable – so our values are doing really well, all things considered!  Nineteen pendings right now mean that buyers are still out there.  Don’t let someone tell you the news is all bad, because it’s not!