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Nov. 12, 2006 - 10 Riskiest US Housing Markets - Fall 2006

Danger The Real Estate Bloggers is "Real Estate, Mortgage, and Development News"  

 Last week The Real Estate Bloggers posted: 10 Riskiest Housing Markets Fall 2006 -  Columbus is NOT on the list! 

Followed by 10 Safest Housing Markets Fall 2006 - Columbus IS on the safest list

According to The Real Estate Bloggers:

"The percentage is the probability determined by the PMI Institute that housing prices in that market sector will go down 10 percent or more in the next two years. Pittsburghs chance of losing 10 percent is 6.1 percent making the city the safest investment according to the PMI Group. "

 

Columbus is number 6 on the safest list.
  
 
       San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA                             
     Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA                      
     Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA                                    
     Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA                                     
     Nassau-Suffolk, NY                                                           
     Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA                             
     Boston-Quincy, MA                                                           
     Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA                    
     Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA                            
     San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA                                 
     San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA                   
     Edison, NJ                                                                           
     Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA                               
     New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ                             
     Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL      
     Las Vegas-Paradise, NV                                                        
     Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV           
     Newark-Union, NJ-PA                                     
     Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL                           
     Baltimore-Towson, MD                                    
     Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC             
     Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL                    
     Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI                 
     Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI                           
     Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ                            
     Orlando-Kissimmee, FL                                   
     Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI                        
     Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA                     
     Denver-Aurora, CO                                       
     Philadelphia, PA                                        
     New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA                        
     Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA                    
     Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA                           
     Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL                          
     Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI                      
     St. Louis, MO-IL                                        
     Austin-Round Rock, TX                                   
     Kansas City, MO-KS                                      
     Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC                      
     Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX                                 
     Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX                         
     Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN                     
     San Antonio, TX                                          
     Fort Worth-Arlington, TX                                 
     Columbus, OH                                             
     Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH                              
     Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN                         
     Memphis, TN-MS-AR                                        
     Indianapolis-Carmel, IN  
      Pittsburgh, PA         
The PMI Institute published this list in September 2006. 
"A complete copy of the Fall 2006 PMI ERET report, a podcast of results, and an appendix that provides data for all U.S. MSAs is available at http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63356&p=irol-publications."

 "The PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends (ERET) containing the US Market Risk Index is published quarterly by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. The Risk Index is a proprietary statistical model that measures geographic house-price risk by predicting the probability of a regional decline in home prices in the nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and metropolitan statistical area divisions (MSADs) over the next two years. The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index is based on the House Price Index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the PMI Affordability Index, which uses local median household income, home price appreciation, and the price of a conventional mortgage to calculate the local share of mortgage payment to income relative to its baseline year of 1995."

        c. 2006 Columbus Best Blog                                

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Nov. 13, 2006 - re: 10 Riskiest US Housing Markets - Fall 2006

Posted by Chicago Real Estate
Is the above list (with Chicago) the riskies or the safest?
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Nov. 13, 2006 - re: 10 Riskiest US Housing Markets - Fall 2006

Posted by Maureen McCabe
Neither...that is Riskiest to Safest safest list according to  PMI Institute: visit their site for all the numbers and  rankings, what all the numbers mean.  Those are major markets... looks like Chicago is the 17th least risky (most safe) in those markets to me.     10 Riskiest.... are the top ten in the list   10 Riskiest Housing Markets     in order
       San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA                             
     Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA                      
     Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA                                    
     Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA                                     
     Nassau-        Suffolk, NY                                                         
     Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA                             
     Boston-Quincy, MA                                                           
     Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA                    
     Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA                            
     San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA    
10 Safest  10 Safest Housing Markets are the bottom ten in that list    Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX                         
     Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN                     
     San Antonio, TX                                          
     Fort Worth-Arlington, TX                                 
     Columbus, OH                                             
     Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH                              
     Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN                         
     Memphis, TN-MS-AR                                        
     Indianapolis-Carmel, IN  
     Pittsburgh, PA   
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Nov. 13, 2006 - re: 10 Riskiest US Housing Markets - Fall 2006

Posted by Jonathan Dalton
Cool post, Maureen ... so cool that I rewrote it and stole parts for my own blog. :-)

With Phoenix being in the target sights of many of the bubbleheads, it's pretty good to see we're middle of the pack rather than top of the list.

We keep saying the market's flattening but no one seems to listen here ...
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Nov. 13, 2006 - re: 10 Riskiest US Housing Markets - Fall 2006

Posted by Maureen McCabe
All credit is due The Real Estate Bloggers.  I posted a shorter version of it on Active Rain yesterday and got lots of comments so I changed it to post here. There it is funny because I did not post the whole list of riskiest.  I posted the good news, safest list.  It was funny how everyone had to look, like a car accident.  OK I guess that is not funny.   I understood another blogger was going to do it in her market too... that they are not on the riskiest list.  She's going to do it  on her RB (real blog.) This info has been out for almost two months I am suprised I had not seen it before so thank the real estate bloggers for bringing it to my attention.  Caron Mosey blogged about it on AR yesterday too she found it on the Real Estate Bloggers too.    If you go to the PMI site you can get numbers by market which may be helpful  for the hardcore non-believer.  You do have bubbleheads in your market... I saw Jay T's exchange a week or so ago.   I was proud of him!  Jay not bubblehead I or bubblehead II. Thanks for the comment.   Maureen
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Nov. 13, 2006 - re: 10 Riskiest US Housing Markets - Fall 2006

Posted by Tom
Thanks for the links  (and the credit) Maureen, I think you are right about the car crash mentality, this is one of my most popular posts right now.  Enjoying your site. Tom
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Nov. 13, 2006 - re: 10 Riskiest US Housing Markets - Fall 2006

Posted by Monika McGillicuddy
Thanks for the list Maureen and the link. I'm going to try it for my area...even if we're not listed.   Great reading  especially for a new Blogger like me!!!! Thanks Monika
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Nov. 14, 2006 - re: 10 Riskiest US Housing Markets - Fall 2006

Posted by Maureen McCabe
Tom:  Thanks for stopping by.  And for the great info!  Monika:  You may be able to find more info on the PMI site, I think they broke it down lower than the 50 major markets."A complete copy of the Fall 2006 PMI ERET report, a podcast of results, and an appendix that provides data for all U.S. MSAs is available at http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63356&p=irol-publications."  Since Columbus is there on the SAFE list I did no further research... oh, OK a little more research. 

Edited by Maureen on November 14, 2006 at 2:27 am
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Discover Columbus is a site about Columbus Ohio. Originally named "Columbus Best Blog," it was never the best blog in Columbus Ohio. It was a blog about the best in Columbus and Central Ohio! Best restaurants, best real estate company, best schools, best neighborhoods..... written by Maureen McCabe a licensed real estate agent with Columbus Ohio's best real estate company, Real Living HER. Discover Columbus is just a site about Central Ohio.

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