I have a number of people who have been following the local real estate market for many months, and in some cases, more than a year.  I watch as these folks search my website for listings, and we  have actually looked at homes, from time to time, in some cases. According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, yesterday, some people are finally deciding that the time is right to take advantage of the glut of inventory of houses to choose from, as well as low interest rates, and are taking the plunge.

As the article points out, the housing bust, appears to be creating a new group of winners; first time home buyers.  People who watched as friends rushed to buy homes several years ago, are now in a position to take advantage of what look like, incredible deals.  According to the National Association of Realtors, first time home buyers made up 41% of all buyers at the end of 2008, up from 36% in 2006. 

First time home buyers are in a great position.  They are lured by home prices that are obviously depressed.  In some markets, prices have fallen by as much as 40% from peak levels.  Fortunately, in Bucks County, prices have not fallen as significantly, but they are definitely lower.  Houses are clearly more affordable.

In addition, mortgage rates are near historic low levels. 

On top of low prices, and low mortgage rates, it appears as though there is going to be a great tax break specifically for first time home buyers, in the financial rescue plan.  As the plan is currently presented, first time home buyers may be eligible for an 8,000 tax credit, if they buy in 2009. 

First time home buyers are in a great negotiating position when making offers.  Having nothing to sell, makes them extremely strong buyers.  Often sellers are willing to accept lower prices, knowing that a first time home buyer, with strong credit, is presenting offers that are clean, meaning that there is no worry about the sale of another house. 

Because of the amount of inventory, buyers can be patient and selective.  Although we won't know where the bottom of the market is, until it is too late, it appears to be an ideal time for first time home buyers, to get into the real estate market.

For those who read my blog, I have to apologize for not being very diligent about posting, recently.  Believe it or not, I have actually been pretty busy practicing real estate.  I thought it would be interesting, to offer a brief review of some of the transaction challenges, along with some successes we have seen, of late.  This may help to provide a more accurate indication of what is really happening in the Bucks County/Mercer County, and surrounding areas.

With regards to my listings, I am fortunate in that I am marketing homes in a very diversified price range, from the 200,000 range to well in the millions.  In my opinion, the higher priced market has been impacted more significantly than more modestly priced homes.  An indication of this, is that in Upper Makefield Township, it would actually take years to sell all the houses that are currently on the market, priced over 1 million dollars, based on the current rate of sales.  I recently listed a house priced at 294,900, and we negotiated an offer within the first 2 weeks that the house was on the market. 

I recently listed another property in New Jersey, and we got an offer within the first 4 days of putting the house on the market.  We are still waiting to see whether this will work out. 

If you are wondering what I attribute the fast turnaround to, with regards to both of these recent listings, it is that the homes showed incredibly well, and were priced to reflect current market conditions.  I think that is the single biggest obstacle that we face right now.  I believe that many sellers still are not realistic enough about what happening in the market.  If a house is not priced appropriately, there is no doubt that it will sit on the market for a long time.  There is a lot of inventory competing for the attention of buyers, and there are not enough qualified buyers to absorb all of the inventory.  On top of that, in many areas we are seeing more short sales and bank owned properties than at any time since I have been in real estate. 

I recently had a buyer make an offer on a short sale, and it can be a long and arduous process, since the ability to close the transaction is entirely dependent on the lender accepting the offer.  Depending on the lender, that process can take weeks, or longer. 

Another transaction that I am currently working on, brings up another potential challenge.  I am working with a buyer who made an offer on a property that was absolutely gorgeous.  Totally upgraded, move in condition, and priced at what we thought was a very realistic value.  We wrote an offer, negotiated the price, and thought the process would be quick and easy.  That is until the appraisal came in below the contract price.  Basically that means that the buyer would not be able to get the loan as per the mortgage contingency on the contract.  Somewhat in response to the mortgage crisis, appraisers are now being extremely conservative, so this is not an unusual problem.  Based on the appraisal, we had to re-negotiate the price, and were able to work out a combination of a lower price, and some additional buyer funds to ensure that the house will go to closing.  It was just not an easy process.

I could go on and on with a variety of stories about what is happening in our market.  Prices are challenging for sellers to deal with, but there are houses selling every day.  If you are a seller, be realistic, make sure your house shows as well as it possibly can, and be pro-active in responding to the market.  I have a book that I can email, called, "450 ways to get your house sold quickly".  If you are thinking about selling, I highly recommend reading through this booklet, it offers great advice about getting a house ready to show. 

For buyers, you can be selective, and there are great opportunities in the market.  Interest rates are at all time, historic lows.  Have we reached the bottom of the market?  Only time will tell, but I do know that by the time we know for sure whether we have reached the bottom, it will be too late. 

Now that we are half way through January, it is not too early to think about the spring selling season, which will be here, before we know it.  The wonderful people at agent genius, and Lani Rosales in particular, were nice enough to allow me to post this wonderful video for sellers, on my blog.  It is somewhat humurous, but offers advice that is right on target for those who are selling in the current market.

Selling Your Home:  Watch This Video and learn the mistakes that sellers make!

 http://www.howcast.com/videos/29934-How-To-Avoid-the-10-Biggest-Mistakes-Home-Sellers-Make

It has been a while since I posted a specific, statisfical update, of the various Bucks County markets, that I server.  I am sure that everyone realizes that, if you are a seller, in the current market, the market is not very good.  Although Bucks County, still is a lot better off than many areas of the country, we are still going through a very difficult, buyers market.  That means that there are lots of houses on the market, and not many buyers.

Looking at the numbers, through October, of this year, the volume of sold units is noticeable lower than previous years, to date.  For example, Lower Makefield Township is down 28%, Upper Makefield Township is down 24%, Solebury is down 32%, Northampton is down 24%, and Buckingham is down 19%.  This should not come as a surprise to anyone.  The current pending sales, show a similar decline.

The average asking price of homes currently in inventory, as of October 08, has decreased sequentially from September of 07, in virtually all of our markets.  I would expect this trend to continue, until our sales volume increases. 

Inventory levels in October, actually decreased from September of 08, in most of our markets.  If you compare current  levels of inventory to 07, Lower Makefield is down 12%, Newtown down 30% and Buckingham down 9%.  There are some markets where inventory levels have actually increased compared with 2007.  With much lower sales volume, the change in inventory levels does not alter the basic reason for the buyers market, which is, as I mentioned earlier, that there are lots of sellers, and not so many buyers. 

I did have 2 listings that have sold in the past week or so, so there are homes selling.  What did those sellers do that enabled them to obtain an acceptable offer?  Essentially, they made sure that they did everything they could to enhance the way their house showed, and most importantly, they priced it right!  In both cases, we received offers that were within the average discount range, which is currently about 5 % or so, and they were extremely realistic and responsive in the way they negotiated.  In both cases, they will be able to move on with their lives.

Given the current market conditions, it is more important than ever, that homes be priced correctly, and marketed to as wide an audience as possible. 

If you want to see the statistical breakdown of the various markets, please click on the following link:

Bucks County Real Estate Statistics

Please keep in mind that real estate is still extremely local.  Even withihn the same township, statistics can vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.  If you are anywhere in my market area, either in Pennsylvania or New Jersey, I have a great program that will provide you with an emailed report every month, that will show you homes that are active, pending and sold, within about a 5 mile radious of your house.  The report will include days on the market, as well as pricing trend lines.  It is a great way to stay up to date with what is actually happening in your specific neighborhood.  If you would find that helpful, all I need is an address, and an email, and you will recieve the report, automatically, each month.

First, I have too apologize for not posting in such a long time.  I really have no excuse for it.  I love to write, and have let to many things get in the way of my blog posting.  I am going to be much more diligent in the future.

Because it has been such a long time since my last post, I have a lot to share.  I attended a real estate conference in Arizona, a couple of weeks ago, that was absolutely the best, most informative and inspirational real estate event I have ever attended.  I learned a tremendous amount, while there, and shared ideas with a group of amazing, productive, and wonderful people.  I am going to share some of what I gained from that conference, in another post.

I saw an article in today's Wall Street Journal, that I could not help sharing.

Basically the article talked about some incentives that sellers are using to get their house sold.  I am not suggesting that any seller I am currently working with, try any of these strategies, although they may work!

Here is one I absolutely loved.  A seller in Texas, who is trying to sell a 6200 sq. ft house, is giving the new owner a brand new car.  Not just any car!  He is throwing a new Porsche Boxter into the deal, for the new owner.  Apparently a family with a 16 year old, recently saw the house, and the 16 year old is, "driving" her parents crazy, in hopes that they buy the house, and she gets the car.

A seller in Phoenix, where prices have fallen more than 19% from July to September, from a year earlier, is offering to install a pool, patio and professional grill, should a prospective buyer be interested in those amenities.   Otherwise, he is willing to knock off 100,000 from the price.

Then there is the seller in California, who is willing to pay to have his property professionally maintained for 6 months, for the new owner, and is throwing in a washer, dryer, along with a flat screen TV, and furniture in order to entice offers.

The best incentive deal I ever heard of, was actually offered on a property in North Jersey a couple of years ago.  The seller of the house was offering a 250,000 bonus to the selling agent, along with a Ferrari to the new owner!  Asking price of that house, was over 7 million dollars, so I guess they could afford that kind of incentive.

On a personal note, I still believe that those trying to sell in the current market, need to do what sellers always need to do; that is, make sure your house shows as well as possible and is priced well.  I had 2 listings that sold within the past couple of weeks.  One in Yardley and one in Langhorne.  In general, Bucks County real estate values are down approximately 15% from the height of the market.

I couldn't let the election pass, without posting just a short entry, about some of my personal thoughts.  Clearly, political discussions with clients, are dangerous places to go, these days.  I was a passionate supporter of Barack Obama.  Without getting into a political discussion that is too deep for this forum, I feel that the party in power for the past 8 years, has been incredibly irresponsible.  I thought that yesterday represented so much of what makes the United States, such an amazing country.  I thought that McCain's concession speech was fantastic.  I think the election was, obviously, one of historic proportions.  I think that the election of Barack Obama will improve our standing in the world.  I am hopeful that following the election, we will be able to come together, as a country, so that we can get to work trying to solve the incredibly difficult challenges we face.  I had tears in my eyes last night, watching the various celebrations take place, around the country, trying to understand what Barack's election must mean to those who were so opressed, not all that long ago.  Whether or not you supported his candidacy, his election clearly represents a historic positive, for our country.  I pray that Barack Obama will be up to the challenge. I am extremely optimistic about his presidency.

Next post will include news about the current state of our real estate market.

YARDLEY HARVEST DAY FESTIVAL

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2008
9 a.m. to 4 p.m.
(rain or shine)

Sponsored by The Makefield Women's Association and the Yardley Business Association

Come and enjoy a wonderful family day in beautiful Yardley. Nestled along the Delaware River in Lower Bucks County, Yardley Borough is a lovely family-oriented community celebrating its 39th annual Harvest Day Festival starting at the Corner of West Afton Ave. and Main St. in Yardley, you will find over 130 fabulous fine artists and wonderful craft exhibitors along Afton Ave., with lovely Lake Afton as a backdrop. The exhibitors continue on Penn Valley Rd. and into Buttonwood Park. In addition, enjoy the Food Court, which features non-alcoholic margaritas, ice cream treats, caramel corn, funnel cake, hamburgers, chicken pitas, French fries, Italian foods, Italian Ice and much more.

Enjoy the entertainment provided at the Pavilion in Buttonwood Park while you browse, shop and eat.

Please visit the Makefield Women's Association Raffle (MWA)table. We will be located on Penn Valley Rd., across from exhibitors. Thirty wonderful raffle baskets will be displayed with values from $200 to $620. Tickets are only $5 each or 5 for $20. 100% of ticket sales will benefit the Penndel Food Pantry and Mommy's Light. MWA is a non-profit 501(c)3 organization dedicated to "giving back to the community".

How can you get there?

The following target addresses can be used for your NAV or for use with Google Maps.

Location of the start of the artists/crafters:
Starbucks: 1 North Main Street, Yardley, PA 19067

Parking for visitors:
Activant, 19 West College Ave., Yardley Pa 19067

From areas South of Yardley, you may use SEPTA, as Yardley has a train station (use the link below to plan your trip)

SEPTA

Using the Plan My Trip Page, select the Clickable Rail System Map, in the upper right quarter, you will see R3 with the end of the line as Trenton, NJ. Yardley Pa is the station before Trenton. The Rail Station is several blocks from the Harvest Day Festival.

From the North you may change trains in either the Trenton Station or Hamilton Station to SEPTA into the Yardley Station.

DRIVING: I-95 North (from Philadelphia), use Yardley exit #51. Follow Taylorsville Road (it will become N. Main Street), into the Borough of Yardley. You may park in any legal parking space on Yardley's side streets or in the Activant parking lot noted above.

I-95 South (from New Jersey), use Yardley Exit #51A. Follow Taylorsville Road (it will become N. Main Street), into the Borough of Yardley. You may park in any legal parking space on Yardley's side streets or in the Activant parking lot noted above.

We look forward to having you visit the Harvest Day Festival. Enjoy!

I wanted to let everyone know that on October 5th, there will be a walkathon to support the building of the first No-Kill animal shelter in Bucks County.  The event is going to be held in beautiful, Core Creek Park in Langhorne. 

Having owned dogs my entire life, (we currently have an american eskimo, which we absolutely adore) this event is particularly meaningful to me.  I was surprised to learn that only 15% of dogs and 2% of cats who enter traditional shelters, are returned to their owners.  We have a fenced yard, but our dog did manage to escape once.  Fortunately, we were able to locate him in the neighborhood, before he was loose for too long.  Our family would have  been devasted if he ended up in a traditional animal shelter.

I you are an animal lover, and want to either participate in this event on the 5th, or want to make a contribution, please visit the hope for the animals web site.  I also have a registration form, if you prefer, so you can contact me to register or contribute to this cause.  There is additional information on the website, that will further explain the need for such a shelter.  It really is a worthwhile cause.

I will get back to posting about real estate as well as the turmoil in our financial markets, with my next post.

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This is a picture of our American Eskimo, Quincy.

It is really hard to believe that it is September, already.  It seems like the summer just started!

This past Monday, of Labor day weekend, Lower Makefield Township, which is the township that surrounds the small boro of Yardley, celebrated its annual community day.  It was an absolutely gorgeous late summer day, and the turnout was fantastic.  The community support for this event is tremendous, and is an example of why this area is such a wonderful place to live.  It is really fun to meet and greet friends and neighbors of all ages, at this community wide event.  There are activities and events for all age groups, ranging from rides for young children, to a 3 on 3 basketball tournament,  to music and food from all sorts of area bands and vendors. 

What a great way to spend the last lazy, lingering hours of summer!

First quarter statistics are in, so we are able to begin to develop a better indication of where things are with regards to real estate in the communities I serve, in Bucks County.  I have written many posts in the past, explaining that the market in Bucks County, is nowhere near as depressed as it is in some markets in the country.  I will address that issue, in another post to follow shortly. 

Here in Bucks County, looking at first quarter statistics, there is no question that we are continuing to experience a buyers market.  That means that there are lots of things on the market, not as many buyers.  One point of emphasis though, is that contrary to what the press would have everyone believe, foreclosures in our area, are still not influencing the market significantly.  I still have buyers who are under the impression that every house currently on the market, is being sold by a desperate seller, who is facing imminent foreclosure.  That is simply not the case.  Virtually every single seller in the market, that I am aware of, is selling for life style, or job transfer reasons.  I have sellers moving up, downsizing, and selling becuase of job transfers.  All of those reasons, are completely normal.

Here is what the statistics show.  The volume of sold/closed units through the first quarter was noticeably lower than last year, in virtually all of our markets.  Lower Makefield Township was actually down almost 30%, and Upper Makefield was down almost 50%.  Newtown Township was actually the exception, in that Newtown showed an increase of approximately 4% in closed first quarter units.

Inventory is trending as one would expect in a buyers market.  Inventory is up from February in all markets.  If you compare inventory levels at the end of March 2008, with March 2007, the results vary from market area to market area.  For example, Lower Makefield's inventory of homes was lower at the end of March this year, than last year, by almost 22%.  Newtown, Upper Makefield and Solebury are higher, as is Buckingham and Northampton. 

Average days on the market are higher over a year ago, reflecting tougher market conditions for sellers. 

Looking at sold/list ratios, shows slighly increasing discounts of between 6 & 10 percent in most markets.

Despite all of the above, the market contines to be extremely price sensitive.  There are still many examples of houses selling quickly, and selling for close to the asking price.  For example, I recently had a listing right in Yardley Boro, on the main street.  It sold in 2 days, for almost exactly the asking price.  Where is the press when that happens!

The message from looking at all of these statistics is that houses are selling every day of the week.  If it is priced correctly, and marketed correctly, it will sell.  It is still a buyers market, but there are still buyers looking, and buyers are making offers. 

In future posts, I will delve into the statistics a little deeper, and I will also reflect on some additional observations about the current market.