Bucks County, PA Market Update

With the so-called spring market, upon us, I wanted to take an opportunity to review some market trends and statistics for our area.  I do a complete review and analysis, of all pertinent statistics on a monthly basis, for all the major markets in Bucks County, that I work in.  As I have noted in previous posts,  Bucks County has held up reasonably well, compared with other areas in the country.  Real estate markets are extremely local.  Even within the communities that I serve, in Bucks County, there  are always statistical differences in the real estate market, from month to month.

Click here to view the Inventory by month

Lets take a look at where things were, at the end of February.  Please keep in mind, that looking only at January and February of 2008, does not necessarily create a trend.  About in the middle of April, I will have complete first quarter results, so we will be able to see a true trend, for the first quarter of the year. 

Click here to view the Pending Inventory by month

Generally speaking, January was actually a strong month, compared with January of 2007.  In virtually every market area of Bucks County, February was generally lighter than last year.  As a result, the volume of closed units for most parts of Bucks County was lower than the prior year, through February, as compared with 2007.  This should come as no surprise, since we all recognize that it is a buyers market.  More houses for sale, and fewer buyers to buy those homes, results in a buyers market.

Click here to view the Sold Inventory by month

As an example of the differences from market to market, closed units in Lower Makefield Township are off 17.5%, Upper Makefield Township is off 11.1% and Solebury is off 21%.  Buckingham is flat and Northampton is down 9.4%.

More importantly, inventory changes from January are up in Upper Makefield, Solebury and Northampton, while Lower Makefield, Newtown and Buckingham, actually saw a decrease in inventory from January levels.  If you compare current inventory levels to February of 2007, Lower Makefield, and Buckingham are down, while Newtown, Upper Makefield, Solebury and Northampton are all up, meaning those townships had more homes on the market at the end of February 2008, than at the end of February 2007.

Interestingly, the average asking price of homes in inventory as of February 2008, in all of Bucks County, is slightly higher than it was in February of 2007.  I believe that there is still somewhat of a disconnect between market realities, and what sellers are anticipating selling for.  Unfortunately, I think there are times when we, as realtors, play a part in that by providing false expectations.  There is no question that it is a tough market, for sellers.

The last important statistic, is the sold to asking price ratio.  We continue to see slightly increasing discounts off the asking price, ranging from 4 to 11%.  Overall, buyers are achieving approximately a 6-7% discount range from the asking price in our principal markets.

The important observation from all of this is that the market remains challenging for sellers.  It is absolutely critical that a home be priced correctly in order to sell.  It is still possible to sell quickly in this market.  I recently had a home on the main street coming into Yardley, that sold for about the asking price,  in a couple of days.  If you are looking to buy, it does appear to be a great time for that.  Lots of inventory, motivated sellers, and low mortgage rates. 

I will update further, once we have the complete first quarter results.

Bucks County community events

I wanted to let everyone know of a wonderful opportunity to hear Juliard performers, in Bucks County. As many of you know, I am passionate about music, of all genres.  I listen to WXPN, which is the radio station at the University of Pennsylvania.  They play the most eclectic mix of music that you can find, anywhere. (http://www.xpn.org) 

I just learned that violist Victoria Voronyansky will perform a delightful concert, "Inspired by Spring: a musical homage." (http://www.redviola.com) For this performance, Ms. Voronyansky will be joined by Evan Solomon, a superb pianist who has collaborated with the likes of Itzhak Perlman and Sarah Chang.

The performance will take place on Friday, March 14th at 8PM in Anchor Presbyterian Church, located at 980 Durham Road, Newtown, Pa. 18940. 

With tickets priced at $20 for adults and $10 for senior citizens, students and children this is a great opportunity to hear world class music, right here in Bucks County. 

The Truth About Real Estate In Bucks County

I have written a few posts recently, about the state of the real estate market in Bucks County.  In those posts, I have consistently pointed out that our local market, is not doing all that badly.  That is especially the case when you compare what is happening in Bucks County, with what is happening in many parts of the county.   If you listen to the national press, you would assume that the bottom is falling out of the real estate market in Bucks County.  I have been extremely frustrated with our local  press, because until recently, there have been very few articles that accurately portray the state of the local market.  In case anyone has not told you, real estate is, and always has been, local.  What is happening in Florida, Arizona and California, has nothing to do with what is happening in Bucks County.

The chart actually documents, from data taken directly from our MLS system, that there were more closed units in Lower Makefield Township in 2007, than in 2006.  You would certainly not know this, from reading the local newspapers.  This is not to suggest that our market is not a, “buyers market”.

I found a couple of very well written articles, in local publications, that very accurately portray the state of our local market.  First, the current issue of Philadelphia Magazine, has on its cover, the following headline, “Philadelphia, Smile.  Your house is worth more than you think.” 

In the article, the author points out that the general Philadelphia metropolitan area, of which Bucks County is included, is holding up quite well, compared with other parts of the country.  The article explains why the Philly area market is better than you are being told.  He points out that the area economy is still strong.  Another point made, is that we are a primary residence market, for the most part.  There was never a lot of speculative buying, during the hectic, appreciating years.  As a result, although prices appreciated nicely in the Bucks County area, they did not appreciate as much as they did in more speculative areas.  Conversely, as other parts of the country have crashed, our landing has been much smoother.  The article dispels several other myths about the local real estate market.  I highly recommend getting a copy of the article.  If you are reading this, and would like a copy, please let me know, and I can send it via email.

The second article, was a column in the Philadelphia Inquires, this past Sunday, by the papers real estate columnist, Alan J. Heavens.  Alan talks in his column, about real estate from a historic perspective.  He says, “Real estate is local as local as a block.  Forget the web nuts and NBC nightly news.  There is no national housing market.”  Further, he observes that if you are thinking of selling but worried that the housing market is glutted.  Forget it, he says.  Houses linger because they aren’t priced right for the market.  How true!

Interest rates are low, and there is mortgage money available, despite the challenges of the sub-prime lending fiasco.

In a nutshell, as I have been saying recently, the real estate market in Bucks County is not as bad as the press would have us all believe.  Houses are selling every day.  The spring market is upon us and I will report on how the first quarter faired, once we get through March. 

In another post, I will provide some additional statistics for other Bucks County markets.