Is it finally time to dive into the housing market in Bucks County?
Feb. 12, 2009
I have a number of people who have been following the local real estate market for many months, and in some cases, more than a year. I watch as these folks search my website for listings, and we have actually looked at homes, from time to time, in some cases. According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, yesterday, some people are finally deciding that the time is right to take advantage of the glut of inventory of houses to choose from, as well as low interest rates, and are taking the plunge.
As the article points out, the housing bust, appears to be creating a new group of winners; first time home buyers. People who watched as friends rushed to buy homes several years ago, are now in a position to take advantage of what look like, incredible deals. According to the National Association of Realtors, first time home buyers made up 41% of all buyers at the end of 2008, up from 36% in 2006.
First time home buyers are in a great position. They are lured by home prices that are obviously depressed. In some markets, prices have fallen by as much as 40% from peak levels. Fortunately, in Bucks County, prices have not fallen as significantly, but they are definitely lower. Houses are clearly more affordable.
In addition, mortgage rates are near historic low levels.
On top of low prices, and low mortgage rates, it appears as though there is going to be a great tax break specifically for first time home buyers, in the financial rescue plan. As the plan is currently presented, first time home buyers may be eligible for an 8,000 tax credit, if they buy in 2009.
First time home buyers are in a great negotiating position when making offers. Having nothing to sell, makes them extremely strong buyers. Often sellers are willing to accept lower prices, knowing that a first time home buyer, with strong credit, is presenting offers that are clean, meaning that there is no worry about the sale of another house.
Because of the amount of inventory, buyers can be patient and selective. Although we won't know where the bottom of the market is, until it is too late, it appears to be an ideal time for first time home buyers, to get into the real estate market.
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Yardley Bucks County Real Estate Update
Feb. 4, 2009
For those who read my blog, I have to apologize for not being very diligent about posting, recently. Believe it or not, I have actually been pretty busy practicing real estate. I thought it would be interesting, to offer a brief review of some of the transaction challenges, along with some successes we have seen, of late. This may help to provide a more accurate indication of what is really happening in the Bucks County/Mercer County, and surrounding areas.
With regards to my listings, I am fortunate in that I am marketing homes in a very diversified price range, from the 200,000 range to well in the millions. In my opinion, the higher priced market has been impacted more significantly than more modestly priced homes. An indication of this, is that in Upper Makefield Township, it would actually take years to sell all the houses that are currently on the market, priced over 1 million dollars, based on the current rate of sales. I recently listed a house priced at 294,900, and we negotiated an offer within the first 2 weeks that the house was on the market.
I recently listed another property in New Jersey, and we got an offer within the first 4 days of putting the house on the market. We are still waiting to see whether this will work out.
If you are wondering what I attribute the fast turnaround to, with regards to both of these recent listings, it is that the homes showed incredibly well, and were priced to reflect current market conditions. I think that is the single biggest obstacle that we face right now. I believe that many sellers still are not realistic enough about what happening in the market. If a house is not priced appropriately, there is no doubt that it will sit on the market for a long time. There is a lot of inventory competing for the attention of buyers, and there are not enough qualified buyers to absorb all of the inventory. On top of that, in many areas we are seeing more short sales and bank owned properties than at any time since I have been in real estate.
I recently had a buyer make an offer on a short sale, and it can be a long and arduous process, since the ability to close the transaction is entirely dependent on the lender accepting the offer. Depending on the lender, that process can take weeks, or longer.
Another transaction that I am currently working on, brings up another potential challenge. I am working with a buyer who made an offer on a property that was absolutely gorgeous. Totally upgraded, move in condition, and priced at what we thought was a very realistic value. We wrote an offer, negotiated the price, and thought the process would be quick and easy. That is until the appraisal came in below the contract price. Basically that means that the buyer would not be able to get the loan as per the mortgage contingency on the contract. Somewhat in response to the mortgage crisis, appraisers are now being extremely conservative, so this is not an unusual problem. Based on the appraisal, we had to re-negotiate the price, and were able to work out a combination of a lower price, and some additional buyer funds to ensure that the house will go to closing. It was just not an easy process.
I could go on and on with a variety of stories about what is happening in our market. Prices are challenging for sellers to deal with, but there are houses selling every day. If you are a seller, be realistic, make sure your house shows as well as it possibly can, and be pro-active in responding to the market. I have a book that I can email, called, "450 ways to get your house sold quickly". If you are thinking about selling, I highly recommend reading through this booklet, it offers great advice about getting a house ready to show.
For buyers, you can be selective, and there are great opportunities in the market. Interest rates are at all time, historic lows. Have we reached the bottom of the market? Only time will tell, but I do know that by the time we know for sure whether we have reached the bottom, it will be too late.
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Bucks County Real Estate Advice for Sellers
Jan. 14, 2009
Now that we are half way through January, it is not too early to think about the spring selling season, which will be here, before we know it. The wonderful people at agent genius, and Lani Rosales in particular, were nice enough to allow me to post this wonderful video for sellers, on my blog. It is somewhat humurous, but offers advice that is right on target for those who are selling in the current market.
Selling Your Home: Watch This Video and learn the mistakes that sellers make!
http://www.howcast.com/videos/29934-How-To-Avoid-the-10-Biggest-Mistakes-Home-Sellers-Make
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Bucks County Real Estate Update
Dec. 10, 2008
It has been a while since I posted a specific, statisfical update, of the various Bucks County markets, that I server. I am sure that everyone realizes that, if you are a seller, in the current market, the market is not very good. Although Bucks County, still is a lot better off than many areas of the country, we are still going through a very difficult, buyers market. That means that there are lots of houses on the market, and not many buyers.
Looking at the numbers, through October, of this year, the volume of sold units is noticeable lower than previous years, to date. For example, Lower Makefield Township is down 28%, Upper Makefield Township is down 24%, Solebury is down 32%, Northampton is down 24%, and Buckingham is down 19%. This should not come as a surprise to anyone. The current pending sales, show a similar decline.
The average asking price of homes currently in inventory, as of October 08, has decreased sequentially from September of 07, in virtually all of our markets. I would expect this trend to continue, until our sales volume increases.
Inventory levels in October, actually decreased from September of 08, in most of our markets. If you compare current levels of inventory to 07, Lower Makefield is down 12%, Newtown down 30% and Buckingham down 9%. There are some markets where inventory levels have actually increased compared with 2007. With much lower sales volume, the change in inventory levels does not alter the basic reason for the buyers market, which is, as I mentioned earlier, that there are lots of sellers, and not so many buyers.
I did have 2 listings that have sold in the past week or so, so there are homes selling. What did those sellers do that enabled them to obtain an acceptable offer? Essentially, they made sure that they did everything they could to enhance the way their house showed, and most importantly, they priced it right! In both cases, we received offers that were within the average discount range, which is currently about 5 % or so, and they were extremely realistic and responsive in the way they negotiated. In both cases, they will be able to move on with their lives.
Given the current market conditions, it is more important than ever, that homes be priced correctly, and marketed to as wide an audience as possible.
If you want to see the statistical breakdown of the various markets, please click on the following link:
Bucks County Real Estate Statistics
Please keep in mind that real estate is still extremely local. Even withihn the same township, statistics can vary from neighborhood to neighborhood. If you are anywhere in my market area, either in Pennsylvania or New Jersey, I have a great program that will provide you with an emailed report every month, that will show you homes that are active, pending and sold, within about a 5 mile radious of your house. The report will include days on the market, as well as pricing trend lines. It is a great way to stay up to date with what is actually happening in your specific neighborhood. If you would find that helpful, all I need is an address, and an email, and you will recieve the report, automatically, each month.
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Yardley Real Estate Update
Dec. 2, 2008
First, I have too apologize for not posting in such a long time. I really have no excuse for it. I love to write, and have let to many things get in the way of my blog posting. I am going to be much more diligent in the future.
Because it has been such a long time since my last post, I have a lot to share. I attended a real estate conference in Arizona, a couple of weeks ago, that was absolutely the best, most informative and inspirational real estate event I have ever attended. I learned a tremendous amount, while there, and shared ideas with a group of amazing, productive, and wonderful people. I am going to share some of what I gained from that conference, in another post.
I saw an article in today's Wall Street Journal, that I could not help sharing.
Basically the article talked about some incentives that sellers are using to get their house sold. I am not suggesting that any seller I am currently working with, try any of these strategies, although they may work!
Here is one I absolutely loved. A seller in Texas, who is trying to sell a 6200 sq. ft house, is giving the new owner a brand new car. Not just any car! He is throwing a new Porsche Boxter into the deal, for the new owner. Apparently a family with a 16 year old, recently saw the house, and the 16 year old is, "driving" her parents crazy, in hopes that they buy the house, and she gets the car.
A seller in Phoenix, where prices have fallen more than 19% from July to September, from a year earlier, is offering to install a pool, patio and professional grill, should a prospective buyer be interested in those amenities. Otherwise, he is willing to knock off 100,000 from the price.
Then there is the seller in California, who is willing to pay to have his property professionally maintained for 6 months, for the new owner, and is throwing in a washer, dryer, along with a flat screen TV, and furniture in order to entice offers.
The best incentive deal I ever heard of, was actually offered on a property in North Jersey a couple of years ago. The seller of the house was offering a 250,000 bonus to the selling agent, along with a Ferrari to the new owner! Asking price of that house, was over 7 million dollars, so I guess they could afford that kind of incentive.
On a personal note, I still believe that those trying to sell in the current market, need to do what sellers always need to do; that is, make sure your house shows as well as possible and is priced well. I had 2 listings that sold within the past couple of weeks. One in Yardley and one in Langhorne. In general, Bucks County real estate values are down approximately 15% from the height of the market.
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Bucks County Current Events
Nov. 5, 2008
I couldn't let the election pass, without posting just a short entry, about some of my personal thoughts. Clearly, political discussions with clients, are dangerous places to go, these days. I was a passionate supporter of Barack Obama. Without getting into a political discussion that is too deep for this forum, I feel that the party in power for the past 8 years, has been incredibly irresponsible. I thought that yesterday represented so much of what makes the United States, such an amazing country. I thought that McCain's concession speech was fantastic. I think the election was, obviously, one of historic proportions. I think that the election of Barack Obama will improve our standing in the world. I am hopeful that following the election, we will be able to come together, as a country, so that we can get to work trying to solve the incredibly difficult challenges we face. I had tears in my eyes last night, watching the various celebrations take place, around the country, trying to understand what Barack's election must mean to those who were so opressed, not all that long ago. Whether or not you supported his candidacy, his election clearly represents a historic positive, for our country. I pray that Barack Obama will be up to the challenge. I am extremely optimistic about his presidency.
Next post will include news about the current state of our real estate market.
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Scary Happenings in Bucks County, PA
Oct. 21, 2008
SCARY HAPPENINGS IN BUCKS COUNTY, PA
If you're interestd in some serioius fall fun, you've got to check out this link!
http://www.scaryplace.com/ScaryHappeningsHalloweenPA.html
You won't be disappointed! This is Bucks County at its SCARRIEST!!!!!
BOO!
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Harvest Day in Yardley '2008
Sep. 25, 2008
YARDLEY HARVEST DAY FESTIVAL
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2008
9 a.m. to 4 p.m.
(rain or shine)
Come and enjoy a wonderful family day in beautiful Yardley. Nestled along the Delaware River in Lower Bucks County, Yardley Borough is a lovely family-oriented community celebrating its 39th annual Harvest Day Festival starting at the Corner of West Afton Ave. and Main St. in Yardley, you will find over 130 fabulous fine artists and wonderful craft exhibitors along Afton Ave., with lovely Lake Afton as a backdrop. The exhibitors continue on Penn Valley Rd. and into Buttonwood Park. In addition, enjoy the Food Court, which features non-alcoholic margaritas, ice cream treats, caramel corn, funnel cake, hamburgers, chicken pitas, French fries, Italian foods, Italian Ice and much more.
Enjoy the entertainment provided at the Pavilion in Buttonwood Park while you browse, shop and eat.
Please visit the Makefield Women's Association Raffle (MWA)table. We will be located on Penn Valley Rd., across from exhibitors. Thirty wonderful raffle baskets will be displayed with values from $200 to $620. Tickets are only $5 each or 5 for $20. 100% of ticket sales will benefit the Penndel Food Pantry and Mommy's Light. MWA is a non-profit 501(c)3 organization dedicated to "giving back to the community".
How can you get there?
The following target addresses can be used for your NAV or for use with Google Maps.
Location of the start of the artists/crafters:
Starbucks: 1 North Main Street, Yardley, PA 19067
Parking for visitors:
Activant, 19 West College Ave., Yardley Pa 19067
From areas South of Yardley, you may use SEPTA, as Yardley has a train station (use the link below to plan your trip)
Using the Plan My Trip Page, select the Clickable Rail System Map, in the upper right quarter, you will see R3 with the end of the line as Trenton, NJ. Yardley Pa is the station before Trenton. The Rail Station is several blocks from the Harvest Day Festival.
From the North you may change trains in either the Trenton Station or Hamilton Station to SEPTA into the Yardley Station.
DRIVING: I-95 North (from Philadelphia), use Yardley exit #51. Follow Taylorsville Road (it will become N. Main Street), into the Borough of Yardley. You may park in any legal parking space on Yardley's side streets or in the Activant parking lot noted above.
I-95 South (from New Jersey), use Yardley Exit #51A. Follow Taylorsville Road (it will become N. Main Street), into the Borough of Yardley. You may park in any legal parking space on Yardley's side streets or in the Activant parking lot noted above.
We look forward to having you visit the Harvest Day Festival. Enjoy!
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My Book
Sep. 25, 2008
Visit my book website http://buckscountyrealestatetips.com/
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Bucks County Hope For the Animals Walkathon
Sep. 18, 2008
I wanted to let everyone know that on October 5th, there will be a walkathon to support the building of the first No-Kill animal shelter in Bucks County. The event is going to be held in beautiful, Core Creek Park in Langhorne.
Having owned dogs my entire life, (we currently have an american eskimo, which we absolutely adore) this event is particularly meaningful to me. I was surprised to learn that only 15% of dogs and 2% of cats who enter traditional shelters, are returned to their owners. We have a fenced yard, but our dog did manage to escape once. Fortunately, we were able to locate him in the neighborhood, before he was loose for too long. Our family would have been devasted if he ended up in a traditional animal shelter.
I you are an animal lover, and want to either participate in this event on the 5th, or want to make a contribution, please visit the hope for the animals web site. I also have a registration form, if you prefer, so you can contact me to register or contribute to this cause. There is additional information on the website, that will further explain the need for such a shelter. It really is a worthwhile cause.
I will get back to posting about real estate as well as the turmoil in our financial markets, with my next post.
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This is a picture of our American Eskimo, Quincy.
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Newtown Market Day
Sep. 11, 2008
Those of us who live in Bucks County, know what a great town Newtown is. If you are in the area this Saturday, September 13th, I highly recommend that you visit Newtown, and enjoy Newtown's market day.
Market day is a fabulous, fun event, offering colonial style crafts, music, dance, children's activities, games, and hayrides. Many area restaurants and businesses take part in this wonderful festival. Parts of State Street, which is the main street through Newtown, is closed, so that vendors can set up displays, and event goers can safely wander through town. The event runs from 10:00 too 4:00, with the rain date being Sunday, the 14th.
Newtown is a quaint, charming and historic town. The town dates back to 1684, where, according to historians, William Penn's surveyor, Thomas Holme, devised a plan to for a new settlement he initially called, "New Township". Eventually the name was shortened to Newtown.
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Lower Makefield Township Community Day
Sep. 4, 2008
It is really hard to believe that it is September, already. It seems like the summer just started!
This past Monday, of Labor day weekend, Lower Makefield Township, which is the township that surrounds the small boro of Yardley, celebrated its annual community day. It was an absolutely gorgeous late summer day, and the turnout was fantastic. The community support for this event is tremendous, and is an example of why this area is such a wonderful place to live. It is really fun to meet and greet friends and neighbors of all ages, at this community wide event. There are activities and events for all age groups, ranging from rides for young children, to a 3 on 3 basketball tournament, to music and food from all sorts of area bands and vendors.
What a great way to spend the last lazy, lingering hours of summer!
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Wall Street Journal Advice for Sellers
Jul. 17, 2008
With all the negative news in the headlines, about the struggling real estate market, it was somewhat refreshing to me, to see an absolutely fabulous, accurate, and worthwhile article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal, this past Monday, titled, "How to Sell a House when you Have to Sell in Now". http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB121553612650836199-lMyQjAxMDI4MTE1NjUxMzY2Wj.html
Contrary to what you might suspect, reading the headlines, there are houses selling in our market, every day of the week. There are sellers who have to move, generally for traditional reasons, such as job transfers, outgrowing homes, downsizing, family circumstances, etc. There are buyers out looking at homes, every day, as well. The article offered 7 steps to consider, in order to effect a sale in today's market.
Those 7 steps include the following:
1. Don't wait around. Basically the advice is that because the time on the market has increased, if you have to sell, don't sit around trying to sit out the market. If you want to sell, the best, and only way to make that happen, is to put it up for sale.
2. Fix it up and clean it up. The advice in the article is not to spend a lot of money on big ticket renovations, but to make sure that everything is in good repair, including paint, etc. Please note, that this won't necessarily give you a pricing advantage, it will just ensure that your property stands out from the competition.
3. Price it Cheaply. Note the language that David Crook, the author, used. He advised to be realistic, in setting the price from day 1. Don't let the house hang on the market for month after month. Remember that your house is worth what it is worth today, not 3 years ago. Buyers are looking for, and buying, those homes that they perceive to be bargains. Your price has to stand out.
4. Although I am obviously biased, this one is my favorite! Hire a Top Real Estate Agent. The author's advice is to, "Get the best, most aggressive selling (listing) agent you can find." This is self explanatory, but basically the point is, that with the market being as challenging as it is, sellers need to take advantage of every possible activity to maximize the properties exposure to the market.
5. Promote, Promote, Promote. This is a follow up to the above suggestion. As a seller, the article suggests that you should have a hand in making sure that your property is exposed everywhere possible. Make sure your house is on all of the leading web portals, including Trulia, Zillow, Cyberhomes, Realtor.com, to name a few. Get really creative. Perhaps you can promote the property in your own corporate newsletter, and intranet listings. If you are part of an organization, put it in your organization newsletter, or bulletin.
6. Play the banker. If you are fortunate enough to have lots of equity, or perhaps no mortgage, consider offering the buyer some kind of creative financing. Might be the difference between a buyer purchasing your house, rather than some else's.
7. Take the Offer. I can't emphasize this enough. I can't tell you the number of times that sellers won't take an offer, and then regret it, months later. Negotiate the best you can, but be practical and realistic. If the offer is reasonable, and I understand that is a magical word, be prepared to accept it. Remember, that as much as you love your house, it is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. That will, in all probability, in today's market, be less than what you think.
As I said at the beginning of this post, I think the Wall Street Journal did sellers everywhere, at great service with this article. Obviously the Journal has a great deal of credibility. I have been trying to get this basic advice to sellers, for some time. It makes a lot more sense coming from the Wall Street Journal, than from me. If you are a seller in this market, do yourself a favor, and think very seriously about this advice.
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Jim Gillespie presenting Martin Millner with the top team at Coldwell Banker Hearthside
May. 14, 2008
I was very proud, recently, to have received an award from Coldwell Banker Hearthside, as the top producing team in the entire company, for the second consecutive year. The award was presented to me, in front of the whole company, by the CEO of Coldwell Banker, Jim Gillespie. Jim delivered a wonderful address, which I will speak of, in a minute.
I don’t like to spend too much time talking about my real estate accomplishments, but this award was particularly meaningful. Obviously 2007 was a very challenging year for most realtors. My team and I, had a very strong year in 2007, despite the markets challenges. We constantly strive to deliver service that is better than expected, and to search for tools that enhance our ability to expose our listings to the market.
Jim Gillespie, as the CEO of Coldwell Banker, is a highly respected and knowledgeable expert on real estate. You can see Jim often, on many of the financial news stations, commenting on what is happening in the real estate market. These comments were taken directly from his presentation to our company, at our awards celebration, recently.
As I have posted about several times, the overall real estate market is not as bad as the press would have us all believe. According to Jim, and all of these statistics are completely documented, of the 75 million homeowners in the US, 35% have no mortgage. 50% have fixed rate mortgages, 6% have a government loan and only 9% have subprime loans! We also don’t learn from the press reports, that according to NAR (The National Association of Realtors) the average median price increase in real estate from 1972 through 2007 was 6.2% per year.
When reporting about the so called foreclosure crisis, the press does not dig into the real numbers, rather they play up the percentages without noting the true effect on our industry. According to RealtyTrac, which is a leading source for tracking foreclosures in the US, last year there were 1.2 million foreclosure filings, but there were actually 405,000 homes lost to foreclosure. This year they are suggesting that the filing number may jump to 1.5 million filings, which the press uses as the number of homes actually lost to foreclosure. History tells us that the number will be well under half of the foreclosure filings. In 2006 there were around 268,000 homes lost to foreclosure. In 2007 that number jumped 51% to 405,000 according to RealtyTrac. While playing up the 51% increase in foreclosures, the press does not look at how those actual numbers affect the real estate industry. In reality, there were less than 140,000 more homes lost to foreclosure during that one year period, which represents less than a week’s worth of sales in 2007 when we saw 5.6 million re-sales and approximately 800,000 new home sales. This is not meant to negate the tragic impact that home owners face, when losing their home to foreclosure. It is only meant to point out that we are not getting the true picture of the real estate industry, from the press. As I have repeatedly pointed out, real estate is local, local, local!
In Jim’s presentation to us, he went on to point out a number of extremely encouraging demographic trends that bode well for real estate, in general. There are 78-79 million baby boomers, who are still in their prime and will be purchasing real estate for decades to come. They are purchasing second homes, retirement homes and have discovered real estate as an investment.
The kids of baby boomers, 73 million strong, will fuel real estate for the next 5 decades.
Legal immigrants is the third demographic that will continue to drive real estate. There are between a million and a million and a half legal immigrants, depending on the source, who arrive in this country and add value to our nation. These people want and deserve the American Dream of homeownership.
Finally, there has been a dramatic increase in home ownership among minorities. According to Nar, the homeownership rate of minorities has grown from 40% to 50% in the past the years, and this percentage will continue to increase.
People buy real estate, in general, for lifestyle. According to NAR there have been 4 million jobs created, 4 million marriages and 8 million babies born in the last two years. These are lifestyle changes that many times, trigger a home purchase.
The long term outlook for real estate is extremely strong as our population grows from 300 million today, to over 400 million by the 2040’s. According to two major studies, there will be a long term imbalance of supply and demand. The Brookings Institute issued a report in December, 2004 stating that by the year 2030 we would need 58.9 million additional residential units to meet the countries demand. The Arthur C. Nielsen Institute at Virginia Tech recently did a similar study looking out to 2040 and predicted we would need 70 million additional residential units built by that year. These studies bode very well for the long term appreciation for real estate.
Finally, according to NAR there will be 15 million households formed between now and the year 2015 outpacing the past 10 years of household formations.
I apologize for such a long post, this time around. I thought it was very important to let readers understand that there is a lot about the state of the current real estate industry and market that we don’t get by listening to the press. Jim Gillespie did a great job of creating some balance in analyzing the numbers and what they mean to all of us.
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Bucks County Basketball Charity Event - Philadelphia Eagles
Apr. 30, 2008
I had to write a blog entry about a recent basketball experience that I had. As anyone who knows me can attest, I am a bit of a sports nut. I love to watch sports, and have coached and played many sports over the years. I play basketball several times a week, locally. If anyone wants to know where there is basketball played in the Yardley-Newtown area, just ask me.
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My daughter, Rachel, recently won a bid at a local charity auction to gift to me that related to my love for basketball. She was the top bidder for an opportunity to play in a basketball game with the Philadelphia Eagles, travelling basketball team. The Eagles have a group of players, that plays a 7 or 8 game schedule in the off-season. They do it as a fund raising effort, for local charities.
As a result, on Friday evening, my wife Jane, Rachel and myself, travelled to a high school in Downingtown, so that I could play with the Eagles. What a great experience for me! It definitely brought back memories of my high school and college days, playing a variety of competitive sports. I was given a uniform, warm up shirt, and shorts, and suited up with the Eagles. We played 10 minute quarters, and for those interested, I did hit a couple of jump shots. The gym was packed, and it was incredible fun! The Eagle players who participated, were AJ Feeley, Hank Baskett, Juqua Thomas, Omar Gaither and Quintin Mikell. All could play! They were extremely supportive of my participation, and constantly encouraged me to shoot. I had a great workout, and really enjoyed myself. It was an event that I will not soon forget.
I realize this has nothing to do with real estate, other than to make anyone who plays basketball, aware of the fact that I can help find games, for those interested.
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Bucks County Real Estate Trends
Apr. 16, 2008
First quarter statistics are in, so we are able to begin to develop a better indication of where things are with regards to real estate in the communities I serve, in Bucks County. I have written many posts in the past, explaining that the market in Bucks County, is nowhere near as depressed as it is in some markets in the country. I will address that issue, in another post to follow shortly.
Here in Bucks County, looking at first quarter statistics, there is no question that we are continuing to experience a buyers market. That means that there are lots of things on the market, not as many buyers. One point of emphasis though, is that contrary to what the press would have everyone believe, foreclosures in our area, are still not influencing the market significantly. I still have buyers who are under the impression that every house currently on the market, is being sold by a desperate seller, who is facing imminent foreclosure. That is simply not the case. Virtually every single seller in the market, that I am aware of, is selling for life style, or job transfer reasons. I have sellers moving up, downsizing, and selling becuase of job transfers. All of those reasons, are completely normal.
Here is what the statistics show. The volume of sold/closed units through the first quarter was noticeably lower than last year, in virtually all of our markets. Lower Makefield Township was actually down almost 30%, and Upper Makefield was down almost 50%. Newtown Township was actually the exception, in that Newtown showed an increase of approximately 4% in closed first quarter units.
Inventory is trending as one would expect in a buyers market. Inventory is up from February in all markets. If you compare inventory levels at the end of March 2008, with March 2007, the results vary from market area to market area. For example, Lower Makefield's inventory of homes was lower at the end of March this year, than last year, by almost 22%. Newtown, Upper Makefield and Solebury are higher, as is Buckingham and Northampton.
Average days on the market are higher over a year ago, reflecting tougher market conditions for sellers.
Looking at sold/list ratios, shows slighly increasing discounts of between 6 & 10 percent in most markets.
Despite all of the above, the market contines to be extremely price sensitive. There are still many examples of houses selling quickly, and selling for close to the asking price. For example, I recently had a listing right in Yardley Boro, on the main street. It sold in 2 days, for almost exactly the asking price. Where is the press when that happens!
The message from looking at all of these statistics is that houses are selling every day of the week. If it is priced correctly, and marketed correctly, it will sell. It is still a buyers market, but there are still buyers looking, and buyers are making offers.
In future posts, I will delve into the statistics a little deeper, and I will also reflect on some additional observations about the current market.
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Trenton Public Education Foundation Receives Grant For OutStanding Performance
Apr. 7, 2008
Today's Featured Property
I have been extremely blessed over the years, to have been able to develop a very successful, and busy real estate career. Those who know me, know that I am also very committed to giving back to the community. One of the areas that I feel incredibly passionate about, is education. I can’t emphasize enough, how strongly I feel about the value of education, as a tool to solve many problems, both here in the United States, as well as problems across the globe. Because I feel so passionate about education, I am a board member of the Trenton Public Education Foundation. (http://www.TPEF.org) For those who are not familiar with the area, the Trenton school district, is pretty much, a poor, inner city, district. Despite what is often found in the newspaper, there are amazing students, faculty and administrators, in the district. Our organizations mission is to broker, foster and leverage resources that enhance and promote educational opportunities for the students in the Trenton School District.
At one of our events, I met am incredibly dynamic and committed teacher at Trenton High, who was teaching a course at Trenton High in media technology. We as a foundation, are trying to provide high school students with an opportunity to see life outside of their neighborhoods, and to get an idea of a future career path. This particular class is apparently very popular, at the school. Our foundation awarded the teacher, a 1000 dollar mini grant for her program. She elected to use the money to upgrade the software she was using. She wanted to purchase the latest version of Adobe photoshop, which is basically an industry standard, for anyone looking to get into any design related field. This all sounded great, except that the computers in the school were so old, that the new Adobe software would not run on them, which gets me to the point of my current blog post. Having met this teacher, and having met students, it was driving me crazy that here was a dynamic teacher, who could make a real difference in the lives of her students, who was being thwarted in her efforts, by outdated tools. The teacher reached out to our foundation, to seek our help in trying to find a way to upgrade the computers at the school. I am extremely proud of the fact that, through a contact that I have with a very large foundation, I was able to secure a grant for 10,000 dollars, so that we could buy 6 completely new, IMacs for the school. The teacher is able to enhance her program, and the students will be completely familiar with industry standard equipment, should they decide to embark on careers in any design type of work. I know that this class is extremely popular with the students. The teacher told me that because of the interest in the class, the students are often not ready to leave the class room, when the class ends. I have seen some of their work, and it really is amazing.
I was really proud of my involvement in securing this grant, and creating such a wonderful educational opportunity for the students.
I understand that this post may not be directly related to real estate, but in a sense, all of our communities can be better places, if we try and make a positive difference in the lives of others. These kinds of efforts mean a great deal to me.
I have been extremely blessed over the years, to have been able to develop a very successful, and busy real estate career. Those who know me, know that I am also very committed to giving back to the community. One of the areas that I feel incredibly passionate about, is education. I can’t emphasize enough, how strongly I feel about the value of education, as a tool to solve many problems, both here in the United States, as well as problems across the globe. Because I feel so passionate about education, I am a board member of the Trenton Public Education Foundation. (http://www.TPEF.org) For those who are not familiar with the area, the Trenton school district, is pretty much, a poor, inner city, district. Despite what is often found in the newspaper, there are amazing students, faculty and administrators, in the district. Our organizations mission is to broker, foster and leverage resources that enhance and promote educational opportunities for the students in the Trenton School District.
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Bucks County, PA Market Update
Mar. 24, 2008
With the so-called spring market, upon us, I wanted to take an opportunity to review some market trends and statistics for our area. I do a complete review and analysis, of all pertinent statistics on a monthly basis, for all the major markets in Bucks County, that I work in. As I have noted in previous posts, Bucks County has held up reasonably well, compared with other areas in the country. Real estate markets are extremely local. Even within the communities that I serve, in Bucks County, there are always statistical differences in the real estate market, from month to month.
Click here to view the Inventory by month
Lets take a look at where things were, at the end of February. Please keep in mind, that looking only at January and February of 2008, does not necessarily create a trend. About in the middle of April, I will have complete first quarter results, so we will be able to see a true trend, for the first quarter of the year.
Click here to view the Pending Inventory by month
Generally speaking, January was actually a strong month, compared with January of 2007. In virtually every market area of Bucks County, February was generally lighter than last year. As a result, the volume of closed units for most parts of Bucks County was lower than the prior year, through February, as compared with 2007. This should come as no surprise, since we all recognize that it is a buyers market. More houses for sale, and fewer buyers to buy those homes, results in a buyers market.
Click here to view the Sold Inventory by month
As an example of the differences from market to market, closed units in Lower Makefield Township are off 17.5%, Upper Makefield Township is off 11.1% and Solebury is off 21%. Buckingham is flat and Northampton is down 9.4%.
More importantly, inventory changes from January are up in Upper Makefield, Solebury and Northampton, while Lower Makefield, Newtown and Buckingham, actually saw a decrease in inventory from January levels. If you compare current inventory levels to February of 2007, Lower Makefield, and Buckingham are down, while Newtown, Upper Makefield, Solebury and Northampton are all up, meaning those townships had more homes on the market at the end of February 2008, than at the end of February 2007.
Interestingly, the average asking price of homes in inventory as of February 2008, in all of Bucks County, is slightly higher than it was in February of 2007. I believe that there is still somewhat of a disconnect between market realities, and what sellers are anticipating selling for. Unfortunately, I think there are times when we, as realtors, play a part in that by providing false expectations. There is no question that it is a tough market, for sellers.
The last important statistic, is the sold to asking price ratio. We continue to see slightly increasing discounts off the asking price, ranging from 4 to 11%. Overall, buyers are achieving approximately a 6-7% discount range from the asking price in our principal markets.
The important observation from all of this is that the market remains challenging for sellers. It is absolutely critical that a home be priced correctly in order to sell. It is still possible to sell quickly in this market. I recently had a home on the main street coming into Yardley, that sold for about the asking price, in a couple of days. If you are looking to buy, it does appear to be a great time for that. Lots of inventory, motivated sellers, and low mortgage rates.
I will update further, once we have the complete first quarter results.
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Bucks County community events
Mar. 13, 2008
I wanted to let everyone know of a wonderful opportunity to hear Juliard performers, in Bucks County. As many of you know, I am passionate about music, of all genres. I listen to WXPN, which is the radio station at the University of Pennsylvania. They play the most eclectic mix of music that you can find, anywhere. (http://www.xpn.org)
I just learned that violist Victoria Voronyansky will perform a delightful concert, "Inspired by Spring: a musical homage." (http://www.redviola.com) For this performance, Ms. Voronyansky will be joined by Evan Solomon, a superb pianist who has collaborated with the likes of Itzhak Perlman and Sarah Chang.
The performance will take place on Friday, March 14th at 8PM in Anchor Presbyterian Church, located at 980 Durham Road, Newtown, Pa. 18940.
With tickets priced at $20 for adults and $10 for senior citizens, students and children this is a great opportunity to hear world class music, right here in Bucks County.
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The Truth About Real Estate In Bucks County
Mar. 6, 2008
I have written a few posts recently, about the state of the real estate market in Bucks County. In those posts, I have consistently pointed out that our local market, is not doing all that badly. That is especially the case when you compare what is happening in Bucks County, with what is happening in many parts of the county. If you listen to the national press, you would assume that the bottom is falling out of the real estate market in Bucks County. I have been extremely frustrated with our local press, because until recently, there have been very few articles that accurately portray the state of the local market. In case anyone has not told you, real estate is, and always has been, local. What is happening in Florida, Arizona and California, has nothing to do with what is happening in Bucks County.
The chart actually documents, from data taken directly from our MLS system, that there were more closed units in Lower Makefield Township in 2007, than in 2006. You would certainly not know this, from reading the local newspapers. This is not to suggest that our market is not a, “buyers market”.
I found a couple of very well written articles, in local publications, that very accurately portray the state of our local market. First, the current issue of Philadelphia Magazine, has on its cover, the following headline, “Philadelphia, Smile. Your house is worth more than you think.”
In the article, the author points out that the general Philadelphia metropolitan area, of which Bucks County is included, is holding up quite well, compared with other parts of the country. The article explains why the Philly area market is better than you are being told. He points out that the area economy is still strong. Another point made, is that we are a primary residence market, for the most part. There was never a lot of speculative buying, during the hectic, appreciating years. As a result, although prices appreciated nicely in the Bucks County area, they did not appreciate as much as they did in more speculative areas. Conversely, as other parts of the country have crashed, our landing has been much smoother. The article dispels several other myths about the local real estate market. I highly recommend getting a copy of the article. If you are reading this, and would like a copy, please let me know, and I can send it via email.
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The second article, was a column in the Philadelphia Inquires, this past Sunday, by the papers real estate columnist, Alan J. Heavens.
Alan talks in his column, about real estate from a historic perspective. He says, “Real estate is local as local as a block. Forget the web nuts and NBC nightly news. There is no national housing market.” Further, he observes that if you are thinking of selling but worried that the housing market is glutted. Forget it, he says. Houses linger because they aren’t priced right for the market. How true!
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Interest rates are low, and there is mortgage money available, despite the challenges of the sub-prime lending fiasco.
In a nutshell, as I have been saying recently, the real estate market in Bucks County is not as bad as the press would have us all believe. Houses are selling every day. The spring market is upon us and I will report on how the first quarter faired, once we get through March.
In another post, I will provide some additional statistics for other Bucks County markets.
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Martin Millner,
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