The month of September has been crazy for me.  Between moving to a new house, going on a wonderful family vacation and Rosh Hashanna, my schedule is completely out of whack.  Many things, including this blog, have fallen by the wayside, but I'm getting back to business.

Early next week I'll be posting my regular Monthly Market Update and a special Quarterly Market Trend Analysis to see where the market has been so far this year. 

Now as far as where the market might be going - well that's something I'm going to try and tackle also.  The only thing I know for sure is that all of the Wall Street wackiness is going to have a definite effect on Fairfield County.  Not only do many financial, banking and Wall Street-related firms have a presence here, but many people living here are (or were) employed by these firms so when they aren't doing well, it starts to cause problems in our local markets. So I'm going to weed through the national and local news stories to find information to help make sense of what's going on and how it relates to the local real estate market.

Along the way, I'll continue to highlight any other news stories or items that I think would be of interest.  Thanks for your patience during my short hiatus.  I promise to have more good information coming along for you soon.

It seems like the local Real Estate Market decided to go on vacation in August.  Home sales for the month were slower than July and the average sales price dropped a bit below where it was in June.  This isn't unusual for the end of the Summer since so many people plan their moves around the school year and many local schools started before Labor Day this year.  Despite the overall drop in the market there were some towns that had increases in sales prices last month (indicated in blue in the table below).  Here are the overall statistics:

Single Family Home Sales Statistics

 August 2007 - All of Fairfield County
Median Sales Price: $580,000
# of Homes Sold: 912
Average Time on Market: 93 days

Is the Market Starting to Level Off?

The number of homes sold per month (absorption rate) went up to an average of 465 for the year-to-date.  It's still much lower than the first 8 months of 2007 when the average was 674 homes per month.  But it's a good indicator that the local housing market is still following a fairly normal sales pattern with sales increasing through the Summer.

Overall inventory is also down from last month with 5,432 homes actively for sale in the County.  At the current absorption rate, that translates to almost 12 months of inventory, so it's still a Buyers' Market, but there's1 month less of inventory than in July.

What Does This Mean for You?

Fall and Winter are typically slow home buying seasons, so if you are thinking about buying a home, it would be a good time to think about making your move.  You'll still have plenty of homes on the market to see and there will be less competition from other buyers.  Also the Mortgage Rates have started to go down again since the government "take-over" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, making loans more affordable and more loans available.  Lending criteria is still very strict so be sure to talk to a trusted mortgage adviser to be sure that you can qualify for the type and amount of loan you want before you fall in love with a new home.

Town by Town Single Family Home Sales Statistics

*Data compiled from listing information in the Greater Fairfield County CMLS entered as of 9/09/08.  Does not include private sales or sales listed in the Greenwich, Darien or New Canaan MLS services.  Always verify any information that is critical to your buying decision before acting.

July was a good month for home sales here in Fairfield County.  The Median Sales price is up 10% over June and 2% (basically stable) over July 2007.  More importantly, the number of homes sold was almost 100 more than last month and only 14% lower than the number sold in July 2007, which is much better than last month's statistics.  Here are the overall statistics:

Single Family Home Sales Statistics

July 2008 - All of Fairfield County*
Median Sales Price: $612,500
# of Homes Sold: 728
Average Time on Market: 96 days

July 2007 - All of Fairfield County
Median Sales Price: $600,000
# of Homes Sold: 831
Average Time on Market: 92 days

It's Still A Buyer's Market

The average number of homes sold per month (absorption rate) so far this year is 448, which is up from last month.  Right now there are 5,640 homes actively for sale in the County which translates to about 13 months of inventory based on the current absorption rate.  Things are looking up for home sellers, but we're still firmly in a Buyer's Market.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you're a home seller, there's a light at the end of the tunnel.  Price your home correctly (ask your Realtor for advice on how to price your home competitively) and the right buyer will hopefully come along soon.  If you really need to sell now, price your home as low as you can handle it - the bargain hunters are out there and you'll get their attention.

If you're ready to buy a home, it might be time to get serious.  While I don't expect any drastic rise in home prices any time soon, the market looks like it's starting to level off.  There will continue to be more foreclosures coming on the market, especially early next year when a large number of adjustable rate mortgages are ready to reset, which will have an effect on the overall market and might bring some good deals for buyers (but do your homework before considering a foreclosed home).  If you can wait until after Labor Day, you'll be at a bit of advantage because there are usually less buyers shopping in the Fall and Winter and sellers who really need to move will be more willing to make a deal.  Of course, if you really need to buy something now, you'll still be able to get a good deal, as long as you do your homework (or work with a Realtor who will do the homework for you).  Happy House Hunting! 

Town by Town Single Family Home Sales Statistics

*Data compiled from listing information in the Greater Fairfield County CMLS entered as of 8/05/08.  Does not include private sales or sales listed in the Greenwich, Darien or New Canaan MLS services.  Always verify any information that is critical to your buying decision before acting.

When you're thinking of buying or selling a home, you want to keep an eye on where the real estate market is going.  To keep you informed, I'll be publishing statistics on the Fairfield County real estate market each month and identify any trends in the local market that could affect your buying or selling decision.

Single Family Home Sales Statistics

June 2008 - All of Fairfield County*
Median Sales Price: $550,000
# of Homes Sold: 638
Average Time on Market: 101 days

June 2007 - All of Fairfield County
Median Sales Price: $606,250
# of Homes Sold: 1,002
Average Time on Market: 90 days

As the numbers clearly show, the overall Fairfield County market is not doing as well as it did in June 2007, but the news isn't all bad.  The overall Median Sales Price is down 9.3% and the number of homes sold is down by 36%, while the market time has increased by 11 days.  However, as you'll hear many REALTORS say, "All Real Estate is Local" and that's especially true for Fairfield County with the wide variety of towns and cities it encompasses. 

When you look at the towns individually, you see that 9 of the 23 towns have Median Home Sales Prices that have remained level or increased over the same period last year, which is good news.  And the overall Median Sales Price is 6% higher than it was last month.  To see how each town is doing, check out the chart at the end of this post.

Absorption Rate & Current Inventory

Looking at the Absorption Rate (average number of homes sold per month) and the current Inventory (number of homes actively for sale) is another way to determine which way the market is moving.  For the 1st half of this year, there have been an average of 414 houses sold each month (Absorption Rate) in Fairfield County.  As of today there are 5,751 houses for sale in the County, which means that based on the current Absorption Rate we have almost 14 months of inventory on the market.  Generally speaking it's a Buyer's Market when there is more than 6 months of inventory for sale.  So we're well within Buyer's Market territory.

What Does All of This Mean for the First-Time Buyer?

Well, if you've been contemplating buying your first home, but you've been waiting for the prices to drop more, you might not want to wait much longer.  For many of the towns in the County, the sales prices are starting to level off or even increase, which means that the market is getting back to a positive trend.  Inventory levels are also starting to level off or decrease, which means that homes are selling or sellers are considering staying put if they don't have to move.  Of course, there will continue to be more homeowners facing foreclosure as their adjustable rate mortgages increase over the next few months, so there will be more foreclosure or "distressed" properties coming on the market.  But the competition for those properties will be fierce and they don't always present a good value (more on that in a future post).  My best advice is that if your finances are in order and you're mentally ready to be a homeowner, then don't wait.  A home is a long-term investment and if you buy it at the right price for the property (and for you) you'll receive a solid return on your investment if you stay in the home for at least 5 years.  And don't forget - it's not just an investment, it's your home and the memories you make there will far outweigh any financial gains.

*Data compiled from listing information in the Greater Fairfield County CMLS entered as of 7/14/08.  Does not include private sales or sales listed in the Greenwich, Darien or New Canaan MLS services.  Always verify any information that is critical to your buying decision before acting.