Today on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog, I posted a long article on the Monte Sereno real estate market.  In places I compared and contrasted it with the Los Gatos & Saratoga markets, so readers of this blog might find that piece interesting as well.

The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Update, November 2009

If you are thinking of buying or selling a Los Gatos condo or townhouse, it's helpful to know what the market's doing - that is, what are the Los Gatos real estate trends and statistics for the condo market. 

Today we'll have a look at the Los Gatos condo market in terms of pricing, inventory, and days on market.  We will study Los Gatos as a whole and broken out by zip code,  and also by price quartile too.  The data below is via Altos Research, to which I am a subscriber & so I have the right to use the charts & graphs here. (Note: Altos Research uses list prices, not sold prices.) The charts I'm uploading will automatically update, so if you pull up this post long after it's been written, the charts will still be "live" and should be accurate.

First, the pricing trends for condos and townhomes in 95030 and 95032 combined (so all of Los Gatos together) over the last year, and separated by quartile:

 

Generally, it's been a year of some increases but overall decreases in list prices year over year (as of late October 2009).

Following, the two zip codes separated, but the quartiles combined:

 

Interestingly, the 95030 part of Los Gatos was dropping this time last year (10-2008) while the 95032 market was mostly improving.  I suspect that this is due to the cost of living: 95032 is simply less expensive.

Getting more specific:  now see Los Gatos 95030 condos and townhomes, broken out by price quartile:

 

Fascinating to see what happened with the group that had been the second quartile and ended up at the bottom!  The deepest decines in value (or pricing)  have come in the highest price ranges.  This is true in Saratoga and other high-end markets around Silicon Valley and in parts of San Jose (such as Almaden Valley) too.

Same pricing info but for Los Gatos 95032:


The 95032 patterns seemed to follow a more understandable path than 95030.

Next, inventory - the available townhouses and condominiums to buy in Los Gatos (both zips combined)over the last 12 months:

Inventory for 95030:



And inventory for 95032:

 

Now, we'll look at the average Days on Market. Things are really interesting here as we view all of Los Gatos by quartile.:

And again, we'll drill down to the zip code & quartile view of the Los Gatos condo and townhome market as we consider the average days on market:



 In the 95030 part of Los Gatos, interestingly, the least expensive condos are taking the longest to sell.  Why might that be the case? Here's my hunch:  most of this zip code is "in the schools" (enjoying Blossom Hill Elementary, Van Meter Elementry, or Daves Avenue School as well as Fisher Middle School and Los Gatos High). The least expensive homes often fall into one of two categories: seniors housing (Alberto Way, the Los Gatos Commons) or small, entry level condos with only one bedroom.  Neither of these would require the highly regarded Los Gatos Schools. 

Conversely, in the 95032 part of town, it's the most expensive townhomes and condos that are taking the longest to sell. A possible reason is that people who can afford a high end condo can also afford a single family home - and right now, the houses have come down so much in price that they are not as out of reach as they were in the past. Most likely, homebuyers are preferring to buy a house (perhaps in Cambrian Park or Willow Glen) rather than a costly condo.

Even more data:

I just ran a little more info off of MLSListings.com, our MLS provider here in the San Jose area, and see that in Los Gatos (both zip codes) 26 condos and townhomes sold & closed in the last month, and there are 132 available today.  That means there are  5 months of inventory, which is just a little into the seller's market territory.

95030 -  51 available, 6 sold in last month = 8.5 months of inventory - av sales price = $1,301,667

95032 -  81 available, 20 sold in last month = 4.05 months of inventory - av sales pr = $1,068,360

Very very interesting that it's approximately twice as easy to sell a condo in 95032 than in 95030. In most of Santa Clara County, the most affordable homes are the ones selling the best.  That general trend appears to be in full swing here in Los Gatos among the townhouse and condo market too.

If you'd like to sell or buy a Los Gatos condo or townhouse, please contact me.  I'd be happy to have a confidential, no obligation conversation with you about your wants, needs and plans.

Although it can be a bit of a challenge to sell a condominium or townhome in Los Gatos, it's not impossible if the pricing, staging, and marketing are all correct.  

It's early October - many years, we experience an influx of inventory in Los Gatos homes for sale at about this time (between Labor Day and Halloween). Not this year, though.  It seems that the uptick in available homes for sale mostly happens in years where it's a seller's market.  The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market, especially in the 95030 zip code, where prices continue to fall, has not been a seller's market in most price ranges recently.  It appears that many homeowners are holding onto their homes for now - probably until the market recovers. My buyers are noticing the lack of inventory too.

(On a side note: I do have buyers looking for a turnkey Los Gatos home with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and a less than 10,000 sf lot for up to 1.5 million. Nothing currently on the market is a fit for them - if you have a home that might work, or know of one not currently on the market, please let me know. Either zip code or school area is OK.)

Today we'll have a look at the list prices and inventory for two zip codes, which combined generally make up the area included in the Town of Los Gatos and also the City of Monte Sereno: 95030 and 95032. 95030 is Los Gatos and also Monte Sereno. (There are some funky exceptions: one area with the 95032 zip code out by Pollard and Quito actually belongs to Campbell but has a Los Gatos address for postal reasons. Another area near National and Carlton along the Cambrian border has a San Jose, 95124 mailing address but is actually Los Gatos - same thing, for postal reasons the mailing address is off.)

Another caveat - and a big one - is that today's study does not include a breakdown by school district. This can be a leading indicator of how your particular neighborhood might be faring.  Altos does not use this criteria so I can't factor it in with this study.  On August 24th, I did a post on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog on the Los Gatos Real Estate Market that did include the school district information.  This is great data but takes many hours to assemble, so it's not something I can provide often. But have a look there too - many of the trends are unchanged, even if the exact numbers are different:

The charts below were created by me with Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and the right to publish the charts. Altos uses LIST PRICES in its data fyi.

List prices with both zip codes combined, market separated out by quartile over the last 6 months:

Just 95030 - closer to downtown, usually, than most of 95032, and almost 100% "in the schools", this is a more expensive place to live than 95032:

Now just 95032:

Now inventory - the upper cluster of quartiles is 95032, the lower one is 95030:

Combining quartiles is a little easier (a quartile is 25% of the market so of course the four tiers will always be about the name in number as each other).

What's interesting is that although the 95030 zip code is usually more in demand (due to downtown Los Gatos proximity and the famed schools), those more expensive homes have not been getting scooped up by the market quite as fast as the homes in 95032. The latter are more affordable - and affordability is key in most price points. The days on market for Los Gatos homes for sale by zip code and quartile:

Altos provides a "median market action index" (greater than 30 is a sellers market)  that is quite interesting - note the huge difference:
 

Next, by zip code and price quartile.  95030 is "all over the board, with some parts trending downward and others moving upward...

Now for Los Gatos 95032, which seems to be behaving more as a unified group than 95030:

In most of the 95032 price points, the market's been improving. It's still a buyer's market, but until August or September, it was improving steadily.

How's the market? Really needs to be, "how's your specific market?"  The lowest price points in 95030 are selling well - which has been the case for months. The most expensive homes in 95030 are lagging the most - which has also been the trend.  The less expensive homes in 95032 are faring better overall. If we were to break 95032 down by school district (as I did in the post referenced above), we'd find that the homes selling the best are the ones with Los Gatos Schools (not Moreland or Union). 

For information on your particular corner of the Los Gatos real estate market or the Monte Sereno real estate market, please contact me. I'd be happy to chat with you - no obligation.

Monte Sereno is a lovely, upscale residential community of about 4000 people. It's located adjacent to the town of Los Gatos and the city of Saratoga, California. There are no businesses in Monte Sereno - just homes, the post office, and the city office building along Highway 9. 

Monte Sereno shares some services with Los Gatos, such as police and schools. While Los Gatos has two zip codes, 95030 and 95032, Monte Sereno shares the 95030 zip code with Los Gatos.  Some folks mistakenly think that whatever is happening in Los Gatos with the housing market is also reflective of the Monte Sereno real estate market. They are sometimes quite different. 

We'll now look at a few key indicators to see how the Monte Sereno real estate market is doing, and also how it's doing compared to the same zip code but in Los Gatos. Graphs and stats are from Altos Research, to which I have a subscription (and the right to republish this information), which uses current listing data (list prices, not sold prices, for instance).  About once a month I also publish an update which uses information from the solds, and you may see that interactive report at any time by visiting http:www.popehandy.rereport.com.

I. Inventory of Houses for Sale in Monte Sereno

This first graph displays the trend of inventory among houses for sale in Monte Sereno, 95030. The four different lines are for the four quartiles, or price points. Sometimes they behave differently from one another, but here we can see that for much of the last year, inventory rose dramatically among all price ranges.

Next, a comparative look between Monte Sereno and Los Gatos inventory levels of homes for sale. While it makes sense that Los Gatos has more homes for sale (it has more households!) it is interesting to note that the rise of inventory has been more dramatic in Los Gatos than in Monte Sereno.

A retrospective: how is inventory in Monte Sereno now compared to two years ago? (The chart says only 95030 but this is just from Monte Sereno.)

 II. Average Days on the Market of Homes for Sale in Monte Sereno

Below, please see the breakdown by price point, or quartile, of the days on market for Monte Sereno this year. The lowest priced homes did not experience the same degree of a "dip" in the first half of the year that the higher priced homes did. It is interesting to note that the most expensive homes had the greatest improvement for the DOM (Days on Market) early in 2008.

How does this compare to the same zip code in Los Gatos?

The patterns are pretty similar, but it would seem that for most of the year, it has been easier (faster) to sell a house in Monte Sereno than in Los Gatos.

Compared to two years ago, how do the DOM look in Monte Sereno?

As we had suspected, it was much easier to sell a home in 2006 than it has been in 2008. In fact, it looks from this indicator that it is approximately twice as hard to sell a home now, if not more, then in 2006. This has been especially grue in the last quarter of the year.

III. List Price of Homes for Sale in Monte Sereno

Now we'll turn to the number which home sellers care about the most: price. Below, please see a graph with the median list price by quartile of homes for sale in Monte Sereno this year.

Interestingly, the most exclusive homes have come down the most, while properties in lower price ranges seem to have adjusted downward the least.

How does this compare to what's happening in the town of Los Gatos?

It is commonly known that homes in Monte Sereno are a bit more expensive than those in Los Gatos, so the gap between the two is not surprising. That said, the way each has responded to the market is curious. While Los Gatos home prices (list prices) went down early in the year, they went up in Monte Sereno for the same time frame. In fact, these two graphs are almost completely inverse of each other!

Finally, how does the median list price of homes in Monte Sereno today compare to the list prices of two years ago?

This is another weird graph which almost looks like a symmetrical inverse from 2008 to 2006. List prices today are higher, on average, then they were two years ago. 

In summary, compared to Los Gatos, Monte Sereno is faring better overall. The inventory is lower, days on market are shorter, and list prices remain higher than in Los Gatos.  Compared to two years ago, it's tougher to sell a home (and easier to buy one) in Monte Sereno: inventory is up, days on the market are up - but list prices are up too, an odd twist! In fact it's an anomoly for most of Silicon Valley, but it does not mean that any one house will necessarily sell for more than it did 2 years ago. The median sales price is the point at which half the homes are selling for more, and half for less. So a higher median list price or sales price may simply indicate that more expensive homes are selling. That seems very likely because with the more expensive homes, buyers are less likely to be dependent on a loan.

For analysis of what's happening in your neighborhood, or where you'd like to buy a home, please contact me. I'm happy to meet with you and go over your situation in person and in confidence.

Los Gatos Home Sales Trends

How's the real estate market in the Town of Los Gatos? The Los Gatos housing market varies from one price point and neighborhood to the next, from one type of housing to the next, and even between the town's two zip codes, 95030 and 95032. Here we'll take a view of the overall movement in the market; please understand that it may or may not apply to your Los Gatos home so please call or email me for specific information relating to your property.

Overall, Los Gatos continues to be a buyer's market, though not as deep as in other places in Santa Clara County. Inventory is rising in both single family homes and in condos/townhomes, which is a typical trend for this time of year.

The market has improved somewhat over a month ago in terms of median and average sales price (the graphs below use a 12 month moving average, but the actual numbers do show an uptick). To view the report for Los Gatos using the actual numbers rather than the moving average, please have a look at my new online Real Estate Report. Below are links to specific pages within it that are most relavent to the readers of this blog:

(1) Single Family homes in Los Gatos
(2) Condos and Townhomes in Los Gatos
(3) The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market (SFH, not enough condos for April report)
(4) Single Family Homes in Saratoga
(5) Condos and Townhomes in Saratoga
(6) Single Family Homes in Almaden Valley
(7) Condominiums and Townhouses in Almaden Valley

How about general trends, using moving averages, in the real estate market for the Town of Los Gatos?

The following chart shows median and average price trends plus sales. The chart uses a 12-month moving average to eliminate any seasonal variation.

The next chart is the same as above but uses a 3-month moving average. This smoothes out month-to-month variations yet shows seasonal variations. Here, you can see the uptick in the number of homes sold in Los Gatos.

This chart shows the current inventory of Los Gatos single family homes for sale compared to the number that have sold in the town.

The next series of charts shows the same thing as above but for condominiums and town homes in the Town of Los Gatos.

Please call or email me for specific information on your particular situation
in Los Gatos or anywhere in Silicon Valley.

It remains a buyer's market in Los Gatos, but not as deep a buyer's market as in many other parts of Silicon Valley.

Below please find links to reports on the local Los Gatos housing market, broken down by zip code and housing type, current as of April 28, 2008.  One of the most helpful aspects of the Altos reports is that it breaks the activity down by market quartiles, so that the activity in entry level homes, for instance, is differentiated from the luxury home market. Have a look:

Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95030

Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95032

Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95030

Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95032

These are care of Altos Research, which uses list prices (rather than sales prices). In a week or so we'll have the data on solds in Los Gatos from April, care of another subscription I have, the Real Estate Report. Please check back soon to get that information.