Los Gatos, California
Los Gatos real estate, neighborhoods, condos, houses, homes, market trends, history, events, lifestyle, parks, events, businesses, home, Mary Pope-Handy
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May. 9, 2008
Los Gatos Home Sales Trends
How's the real estate market in the Town of Los Gatos? The Los Gatos housing market varies from one price point and neighborhood to the next, from one type of housing to the next, and even between the town's two zip codes, 95030 and 95032. Here we'll take a view of the overall movement in the market; please understand that it may or may not apply to your Los Gatos home so please call or email me for specific information relating to your property.
Overall, Los Gatos continues to be a buyer's market, though not as deep as in other places in Santa Clara County. Inventory is rising in both single family homes and in condos/townhomes, which is a typical trend for this time of year.
The market has improved somewhat over a month ago in terms of median and average sales price (the graphs below use a 12 month moving average, but the actual numbers do show an uptick). To view the report for Los Gatos using the actual numbers rather than the moving average, please have a look at my new online Real Estate Report. Below are links to specific pages within it that are most relavent to the readers of this blog:
(1) Single Family homes in Los Gatos
(2) Condos and Townhomes in Los Gatos
(3) The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market (SFH, not enough condos for April report)
(4) Single Family Homes in Saratoga
(5) Condos and Townhomes in Saratoga
(6) Single Family Homes in Almaden Valley
(7) Condominiums and Townhouses in Almaden Valley
How about general trends, using moving averages, in the real estate market for the Town of Los Gatos?
The following chart shows median and average price trends plus sales. The chart uses a 12-month moving average to eliminate any seasonal variation.
The next chart is the same as above but uses a 3-month moving average. This smoothes out month-to-month variations yet shows seasonal variations. Here, you can see the uptick in the number of homes sold in Los Gatos.
This chart shows the current inventory of Los Gatos single family homes for sale compared to the number that have sold in the town.
The next series of charts shows the same thing as above but for condominiums and town homes in the Town of Los Gatos.
Please call or email me for specific information on your particular situation
in Los Gatos or anywhere in Silicon Valley.
May. 2, 2008
It remains a buyer's market in Los Gatos, but not as deep a buyer's market as in many other parts of Silicon Valley.
Below please find links to reports on the local Los Gatos housing market, broken down by zip code and housing type, current as of April 28, 2008. One of the most helpful aspects of the Altos reports is that it breaks the activity down by market quartiles, so that the activity in entry level homes, for instance, is differentiated from the luxury home market. Have a look:
Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95030
Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95032
Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95030
Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95032
These are care of Altos Research, which uses list prices (rather than sales prices). In a week or so we'll have the data on solds in Los Gatos from April, care of another subscription I have, the Real Estate Report. Please check back soon to get that information.
Apr. 5, 2008
 Is there a "best time" to buy or sell a home in Los Gatos, Saratoga, or San Jose? That's a question I get a lot. The answer is not so clear as many people would like.
Often we have some seasonally predictable patterns. Let's look at them.
Winter: inventory tends to be very low in winter (from late November until somewhere between New Year's, the Superbowl, and Valentine's Day). Each year it's slightly different, but in that "dead of winter" (as much as we have it here in The Valley of Heart's Delight) is usually the time with the lowest number of sales, the best prices for buyers, the most "absorption" for sellers, the best interest rates, but the LEAST inventory to choose from. So you may get a good price as a buyer, but may not have much to choose from. Sellers may have the best odds of selling a home during this time because there are so few homes to choose from, and some buyers are anxious to close during the calendar year for tax or other reasons.
Spring: What's best for sellers? Most years (but not all) that "best window" is from February through April. On a good year, it may continue into May. Some years, that "best window" for sellers is just a couple of weeks in March. Other years, it moves around and could be earlier, later, longer or shorter. Or just not happen at all. For buyers, spring brings a new influx of inventory and often decent rates. As more buyers come on the market, interest rates tend to creep up most years (a supply and demand issue).
 Summer: Somewhere around June, though, the tide begins to turn and by mid to late summer, sales have slowed considerably and sometimes prices even drop by about August. It varies from year to year. This can be a great time for buyers - lots of inventory to choose from, Interest rates may not be their cheapest, though.
Fall: Many years, there is a second rally (besides the one that happens near March) with a mini flurry of activity between Labor Day and Halloween. That can often be an excellent time to sell or to buy (more inventory than August or November/December).
There are pros and cons to each time on the market for both buyers and sellers. Depending on your home, any time can work. Traditionally, spring is viewed as best for both because there is a good supply of inventory but it doesn't linger too long. So in some ways, spring is the most balanced market. Any time of year CAN work, though. So do not tie your buying decision soley to something like the school year, the interest rates, or the holidays. Call me if you'd like to discuss your individual situation.
Feb. 15, 2008
A few days ago, I did a post about the biggest, most common mistakes sellers make that cause their homes to not sell. The # 1 error is overpricing, and often that's connected with hiring an agent who tells you what you want to hear instead of what you need to hear (or sometimes it's the agent not understanding the market and accidentally misguiding the owner).
Are prices rising or falling in Los Gatos? Both! It depends on what part of town, what price point, what school district, you are considering. We don't have just "one market". It is imperative to understand the micro-markets to get the pricing right.
So let's look at "the market" and "the markets". Let's have a look at the information that homeowners are using to determine how to price their Los Gatos (or Saratoga, or San Jose) home. Below, see a general view of the "Los Gatos Real Estate Market" for single family homes (very broad, including two zip codes and even more school districts). This is relating to list price, not sold prices.
Would this help you to understand pricing trends? To a degree, yes it would.
But it would also add a lot of insight to see how the market is performing within zip codes:
As you can see, there is a vast difference in performance between the town as a whole and the 95032 zip code.
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What is going on here? Clearly, the 95030 part of town shows rising list prices, while offered amounts in 95032 have been falling. The zip codes are a little different demographically, with 95030 being more expensive and being all within the prized Los Gatos School District. Some of 95032 is in that same district, but some is assigned to the Union School District or the Moreland School District. (Unfortunately my data is not available by schools.)
Another point to consider is the pricing range. Here's a view of Los Gatos single family homes by listed price quartiles:
The town overall appears to be "flat". But is the market really flat?
And let's see again the quartiles, but this time broken out by zip code:
In 95032 you see a distinct slide in the 2 middle percentiles especially, but also in the lowest range of homes.
Now let's see how things look in 95030:
In contrast, pricing are rising across the board in the 95030 area. The highest cost homes have suffered the most volatility in the market.
For months, we've heard that we have a "bifurcated market" here in Silicon Valley. We know that homes in east San Jose, south San Jose, and south county are under a huge oppression of short sales and foreclosures. Prices have fallen dramatically. At the same time, homes in Palo Alto and areas closest to it are experiencing a strong sellers market. Los Gatos does not have a ton of short sales or foreclosures, but it does have both a buyers market and a sellers market all at the same time.
The above chart looks like there isn't much movement, just a slow and gradual upward push...but have a peek along the quartile lines and you'll see it's not really flat. Here's a view of the 1st quartile of each zip code over the last year (I'm not going to run all 4 here, contact me if you want more info about a different price point):
and ...
If a home is "in the schools" and has no issues (like high voltage lines, train tracks, busy road, or a disfunctional floorplan), and if it's priced between one and two and a half million and is priced appropriately, marketed well etc, there's a good chance it's going to receive multiple offers.
If a home is NOT in the Los Gatos School District, prices are falling and buyers are probably waiting rather than buying in most neighborhoods.
To complicate matters, we have very few solds to use as comparable properties. If agents and sellers are using "comps" from 6 or 9 months ago (when the last similar home sold), they might be too low in 95030 and too high in 95032 (mostly along school lines, in my experience). It is imperative to adjust for market conditions. For example, if a home was worth $1,500,000 last March (since the charts begin there), it has possibly swung up or down in value by $100,000 to $200,000 depending on the area of town.
Warning: if you are in an area where prices are falling and you list your home too high, you may experience the unpleasant phenomena of "chasing the market down". A Realtor friend of mine from Long Beach, Laurie Manny, did a post on this topic that I highly recommend: "Chasing the Market Down - Are You Guilty?"
What is the market in your area of town doing? I would welcome feedback. Are homes selling, and if so, are they going fast? Are they "just sitting" and taking price reductions? What do you see happening in your area, with your type of property? Feedback is posted immediately - please chime in!
(Coming soon - a similar post on condos and townhomes in Los Gatos.)
Jan. 9, 2008
The numbers are in for December 2007 and the real estate market in San Jose, Santa Clara County, Silicon Valley, and Los Gatos, to name a few areas.
Cliff notes version: prices are holding, or even going up in areas year over year (this last December compared to the one before). But sales are decidedly down. So again, if most homes are NOT selling, it's not much consolation that values are rising. It's a mixed message, but that's precisely what is happening. A great home in a great area with a great price (low) will sell and for "top dollar". Anything less, no such luck!
If you would like DETAILED information on San Jose (and by district, such as Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, Evergreen, Willow Glen, West San Jose, etc.) and the cities and towns that comprise Silicon Valley or Santa Clara County, including Los Gatos, Saratoga, Campbell, Santa Clara, Los Altos, etc., please visit my just-updated Real Estate Report. You will find monthly and annual information on all of these areas and more. And if you'd like a commentary on how to make sense of it, please download my newsletter, which is 18 pages long and in pdf format:
http://rereport.com/scc/print/MaryPopeHandySCCannual.pdf
Right now it's quiet for many of us on the real estate front - and that is not untypical though I usually am busier in January than I am now! Things often pick up in February just after the SuperBowl. (At my house, we are cheering on the Patriots - you may know that I'm related to the QB there, so we are perhaps biased, but not too much.)
I would say to buyers: prices are NOT going down in the best parts of Santa Clara County. Interest rates are good. Inventory favors you. BUY NOW. Homes are not going down in price while you wait!
And to sellers I would say this: yes, prices are going up, but still most homes are not selling. If you wait, you risk having much more competition in the marketplace. If you're ready to sell, get your home on the market NOW.
Each situation is different. Please email or call me for specific input and assistance. I do offer a free one hour consultation to prospective clients.
Happy New Year!
Mary
Jan. 4, 2008
Is January a good month to list your home, or to make an offer on one, in Los Gatos? When is the best time to buy or sell? In auto sales, it's said that making an offer on a car the last day of the month, especially if it is a rainy, "slow day", can result in a good bargain. Is that true in buying a house in Los Gatos too?
Auto sales and real estate sales are not the same, but they can respond to the same economic factors, among others. Predictions for 2008 are very mixed. The weather, though, also impacts sales in both areas.
What about the weather? As I type this, it's pouring rain, the wind is howling and my power here in Belwood has browned out 3 times in the last 2 minutes. This is not the kind of weather that brings most buyers out to shop! So competition will be less for the best homes. Interest rates, too, often rise in mid-February as demand increases. There's not a ton of inventory at the moment, but it's very possible that the "best deal of the year" for getting that condo, townhome or house here in the west valley will be had right now. No one can say with any certainty whether the realty market will be more or less favorable in a month, but I would say to buyers who are serious about purchasing a home this year: do look now. If you see a home you like, make an offer. And sellers, most of your competition will wait for fairer days. Right now, that's not much of an issue.
What's the inventory? And sellers, is this a good time for you? Right now,inventory is low: there are exactly 95 single family homes that are on the market in the 95030 and 95032 zip codes. There are just 22 condominiums or townhouses in the same parts of town. Winter is not usually known as the best season to sell, but there is also far less competition now than there might be later in the year. And buyers who come out to view homes in the middle of January's weather are usually very serious about writing a contract to purchase a house.
What about pricing? Home sales have been plummeting for 34 solid months. Most homes in most parts of Silicon Valley are not selling. (Believe it or not, even in a hot sellers market, not all homes sell. A percentage are always overpriced, in poor condition, or marketed so badly that they do not procure an offer that goes through.) Los Gatos, and neighboring Monte Sereno, Saratoga, and Almaden Valley, are stronger than many parts of the valley - in large part because of the quality of life in these areas, the low crime, the well-kept neighborhoods, and the great school scores. Those factors make some areas desirable in any market. So while you might find a foreclosure emporium in some parts of Santa Clara County, you won't find it in this part of the Valley of Heart's Delight! Short sales and foreclosures pull prices down, perhaps by as much as 10 percent, in areas where those occur. But prices in the town of Los Gatos and the lovely areas adjacent are continuing to rise.
The future of real estate sales in Silicon Valley is a bit uncertain for this new year, perhaps especially since it is an election year. We truly don't know how long the sales slump here will last. If homeowners need to sell, it is probably best to get the home on the market sooner rather than later since the competition is not very great at the moment. Buyers can gain on this market now by purchasing when no one else is looking and while interest rates are good and before prices rise any more. (I have often heard buyers say "I'm waiting for prices to go down" but in most markets within Los Gatos, they are simply not falling.)
"The Market" is a broad term, and really even within our fair town, there are micro-markets from east Los Gatos to downtown to the areas bordering Monte Sereno, and that is also true as relating to school districts and price points.
Right now - even with this inclement weather - can be a great time to buy and sell in Los Gatos or anywhere in the west valley areas of Silicon Valley.
Please call or email me if you'd like to discuss your particular circumstances.
Best regards,
Dec. 7, 2007
The Condo and Townhome market in Los Gatos is a mixed bag. Values are holding and appear to even be rising slightly, the "days on market" are short (a mere 14 days in November), and the list price to sales price ratio is amazing at over 101%. But just as with single family homes, the number of sales is way down.
Is this seasonal or is it "the market"?
One way to check against a seasonal fluctuation is to look at all recent Novembers and see how this one compares. Let's have a look:
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As you can see, the 5 closings in November is the least number of sales over the last decade. Sales are way, way off. And, like with single family homes viewed the same way (see yesterday's post), it's about half of what's average.
If we look at the months of inventory, or the absorption rate, does it look any better?
The condo market remains under 6 months of inventory, which is the point at which the National Association of Realtors would say it moves from being a sellers' market to a buyers' market. These numbers are much better than those for the single family home market in Los Gatos (which had 8.79 months of inventory for November - and those numbers appear to be rising steadily, wheras these numbers are up and down so they appear less predictable).
As of today, there are 5 pending condos or townhouses in Los Gatos (zip codes 95030 and 95032) and a total inventory of 26 available townhomes or condominiums in town. So approximately 20% of the homes on the market are selling. Those that do sell, sell fast and apparently for a great ratio.
But that leaves 80% of the homes that aren't selling at all. So all the good news about "fast days on market" and "great list price to sales price" is not very heartwarming to that 80% whose homes don't seem to want to sell.
In a market like this one, buyers are passing up homes (whether houses or lofts or anything else) with "issues" like busy roads, deferred updating, and of course especially overpriced homes. The property which is fixed up, in a superior location and priced aggressively - the gem, the deal - is selling fast.
This is not a market to see if you can get a price. It's a market for people serious about putting a home in top condition on the market, and pricing it to attract a buyer who's frankly looking for a good deal. Your home needs to be that good deal to sell right now.
Will it be better in the spring? Possibly. The market is really not bad now. There are always overpriced homes in less than ideal locations and with less than perfect condition that don't sell because the price isn't low enough to compensate for the problems. So don't let the failure of some properties worry you about yours. Just get it in the right shape and price it for what today's market will bear (not what you want it to be worth, not what you need, not what someone else told you it is worth).
 If you are buying another home after selling the condo or townhome, you are in luck. The market gets softer as you move up the ranks, and there's a good chance you will make up for any felt loss on the next purchase. But hurry. No one knows whether it will suddenly become a different kind of market in the new year!
Call me if you'd like to chat about your real estate needs. I'm around and working through the holidays with just a couple of days off near Christmas - and I have time to visit with you and strategize to help you get the best deal when selling your home.
Wishing you and yours a very Happy Hanukkah, a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year (and anything else you might be celebrating in these days)!
Best regards,
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