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Live In Los Gatos

Are there many short sale listings
in the Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga area?

Mar. 26, 2008
Categorized in: Homes & Housing Market


Short sale signIn some parts of Santa Clara County, a high percentage of homes on the market in the lower price ranges especially are offered as "short sale" listings. For example, recently I've been assisting buyers of single family homes in the $500,000 price range in parts of San Jose (such as Evergreen, Blossom Valley, Santa Teresa and South San Jose). The vast majority of those listings, perhaps 95% or more, are "short sales".

But that's not happening in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno or Saratoga. Short sales pull values down, so if you live in this lovely foothill area, be glad that the real estate market here is healthier!

Here are the numbers of local short sale listings as of today, March 26, 2008:

  • Los Gatos - 5 total, 2 single family houses and 3 condos or townhomes which are listed as being short sales as of today (95032 and 95030 areas)
  • Monte Sereno - 1 single family house listed as a short sale.
  • Saratoga - 0 single family houses, 0 condos or townhomes which are presented as short sales.
  • Los Gatos Mountains - 3 single family homes

How does this compare to nearby areas in Silicon Valley?

For comparison, I'll combine houses and condos/townhouses. The number after each area reflects the total number of short sale listings for that city or district

  • Cambrian Park - 59
  • Santa Clara - 56
  • Campbell - 13
  • Cupertino - 1
  • Los Altos - 0
  • Sunnyvale - 50
  • Blossom Valley - 193
  • San Jose (all areas) - 1534

A high number of short sales creates increased risk on home values. Short sales usually sell for lower than market value because (1) they take longer to sell, (2) they take much longer to close escrow, (3) they have a high rate of never closing at all (most short sales become foreclosures), even if the seller, the buyer, and agents representing buyer and seller are doing their best to get it closed. Often the slowdown is with the lender, or a servicing company representing the lender. They are overwhelmed with files.

It can be a vicious cycle on home values once it starts. A short sale listing finally gets a good buyer and contract to purchase the home. The bank "sits" on it for 30 or 45 days or more. Meanwhile, in areas with a lot of short sale listings, prices get pushed down. Buyers realize after a month or more that the house is no longer what they originally offered on it. They don't want to be tied to yesterday's price in a declining market. So after a period of time, the buyer is very likely to stop waiting and either ask for a lower price or go on to a more attractive property. If that first home goes back on the market again, it will need to be at a lower price to keep up with market conditions.

It is easy to find a short sale listing in many parts of Silicon Valley, but it is much more difficult to find them in the pricier areas. We are continuing to see a split or "bifurcated" market in which the higher priced areas are more insulated from the recent asault on home values.

Related post:

Want to Buy a Home in Los Gatos?
Some Tips to Get Your Home Purchase Offer Accepted!

Mar. 21, 2008
Categorized in: Homes & Housing Market


White horse fence along Harwood Road in Los Gatos, CA.We read about the real estate market being a buyers market, and some folks think that means that houses, condos and townhomes will always sell for much less than the asking price.

That just isn't the case. There's a whole lot of "it depends" going on. Take each property on its own merits, do some homework and strategize how to get the best deal when buying a home.

Some sellers, for example, deliberately underprice their homes to attract multiple offers. This, of course, pushes the price up and the sellers are often very pleased with the results. (It is usually far more effective than "testing the market" with a high price.) So if it's underpriced, don't assume it'll sell for less.

How should you evaluate Los Gatos real estate when you're thinking of writing an offer? I go through this with my clients all the time, so let me give you a few tips here.

BinocularsFirst, make sure you understand the current market conditions for the area and price point you're interested in. I put out a monthly
Real Estate Report (about the 10th of each month) that will help you understand the city or region - such as Los Gatos/Monte Sereno, Saratoga, or districts of San Jose like Cambrian Park.  But there are lots of micro climates in real estate, even within a town or a zip code! So before writing up a purchase agreement, look at comps and ask your agent to help you understand what's happening locally. You'll want to know both the list price to sales price ratio and also what homes are generally selling for in that particular neighborhood. Once you know those two things, you adjust for things like improvements, condition, precise location, and other issues.

  • In the Town of Los Gatos, homes are selling at an average of 97.7% of list price. How will sellers feel about offers that are at 90% of list price or worse? You're right if you guessed that they'd be insulted and upset.
  • Upset sellers don't tend to be cheerful in negotiating; trying to get a "killer deal" may prevent you from getting the house at all! 
  • When a lowball offer comes in, most often, sellers give a high counter offer. (What constitutes a lowball offer varies, but 10% below list is usually taken badly by the seller.)

Second, learn as much as you can, before writing an offer, about the home's condition. Find out if there are disclosures, inspections and reports online. If so, read them first to get a true picture of the property's condition. If it's in great shape, it will be worth more, and if there are a lot of repairs, it will be worth less. No resale (or used) home is perfect, so do not expect a 45 year old home to be flawless. (I often see this mistake: buyers will view homes at the top of their price range and when they find flaws in the home, start subtracting based on their budget rather than based on market value.) Do consider how it compares to others like it on the market, that are pending sales or recently sold in terms of condition.  The best agents do all this upfront, or at least as much as possible. If you happen to be viewing a home that is a short sale, it is highly unlikely that the seller will have any inspections...because there just isn't any money with which to do them.

White flower arrangementThird, ask upfront, through your agent, what the seller wants or needs to be happy. It could be price, it could be terms. (Terms are the other important aspects of the offer such as required repairs, length of escrow, things included or not included.) You may or may not be able to give it to the seller, but knowledge is power and often the price may be lower if the terms are more favorable. If the seller needs a quick close, you may be able to buy the home for less if you can move fast. Same with "as is" or other clauses that make the seller's life easier. Seniors often have a difficult time clearing out their property, so if you, as a buyer, offer to take on the seller's old cans of paint or other "headache" items, you may create a sense of ease and goodwill that may result in a better price for you. I have seen this happen many times!

With this third point, I should stress that some agents will not want to take the extra step and pick up the phone to talk with the listing agent. There are some agents out there who never call, but simply fax over an offer. To the better, more professional agents, this is really annoying and smaks of laziness and non-professionalism. Listing agents want to know when an offer is coming in. They may tell your agent important information that enables you to write a cleaner offer (that perhaps will not need a counter offer if it's right the first time.) Please make sure that your agent will phone ahead, do a basic inquiry and make a good impression of you to the listing agent and seller. Transactions are about people as well as business and this is an important aspect you should not ignore.

In today's market, which varies wildly from one zip code and price point to the next here in Silicon Valley, goodwill still goes a long way. So let me add a few closing tips:

  • If you happen to meet the seller, try to be friendly and respectful - sometimes if the seller simply likes you, it can go really far in making the transaction together (remember, buying and selling is emotional and not just a business deal!).
  • Make sure you hire an agent who will also try to put a best foot forward for you. If there are multiple offers  (which does still happen!), it may come down to whom the listing agent feels best about working with. Reputation matters, and so does the agent's professionalism.
  • If it is multiple offers, and there are disclosures online, read them, sign them, and turn them in with your offer if at all possible. The seller and listing agent will know you are not going to be surprised later and back out. Even if it's not multiple offers, the seller will feel more confident if he or she knows you have read the inspections and truly understand what you are trying to purchase.
  • Most Realtors in Los Gatos will be looking for a 3% initial deposit and a pre-approval letter from a reputable source (not an online entity). In some parts of Santa Clara Valley, smaller deposits are the norm. In Los Gatos, 3% is strongly preferred and at the least will be expected when contingencies are removed.
  • Write a letter. Make nice. Tell the seller why you like their house.
  • Is the house really overpriced? If so, have your agent politely explain the reason behind your offer price.
  • Is the house not overpriced, but not selling and you can only afford so much? That kind of honesty can work too. Just tell it like it is. Talk to your Realtor, but something like "Mr. and Mrs. Seller, I realize that your home is worth XYX amount, but unfortunately I don't qualify for that much. I would like to buy your home, but the most I can afford is XY amount. In turn, we'll take it as-is and do a three week close, and give you a one week free rent back, and we sincerely hope you will consider our offer...."

HandshakeStories float around Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, and Saratoga of transactions that never came together because the buyer insulted the seller. About 10 years ago, I had a listing and an offer got faxed in (no phone call) and it was just an awful, lowball offer. The purchase agreement was 10% below list price and had a ton of bad terms in them. My seller ripped the offer into quarters and took the house off the market.  And there was one story I heard, a few years back, of a buyer who asked the seller to leave the family's dog too. The seller was angry and would not sell the home at any price!

The average and median prices are helpful to understand what's happening overall. Any home, though, may be different from the average or median, and the sellers may have different circumstances. If you'd like to get a great price on a Los Gatos home, follow the above guidelines (and begin by hiring your buyer's agent carefully!) and you will greatly improve your odds for success!

Call or email me for assistance in buying your next home in Los Gatos!

Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor,  CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, RECS, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993 - 15 Years Experience!
Co-Author: "Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley"
Keller Williams, Cupertino, CA  (Serving Los Gatos, Saratoga, Cambell, San Jose's communities of Cambrian Park, Almaden Valley, Willow Glen,  and all of Silicon Valley)
877 397-5391 (Direct/Toll-Free/Fax);   408 204-7673 (Cell)
www.DelightHomes.com    www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com   
email: Mary (at) PopeHandy.com

The Los Gatos Real Estate Market:
It Isn't So Bad

Jan. 21, 2008
Categorized in: Homes & Housing Market


Tired of hearing the doom and gloom regarding the real esate market? Most of that negative press is national news, not local news. Truly, it doesn't impact home values in Los Gatos if prices are falling in parts of Florida, Vegas, or even in Sacramento. The local market - our town plus neighboring communities here in Silicon Valley - is the crucial one.

Things are just not that bad for home sales in Los Gatos overall.

That said, "the market" consists of several sub-markets. It's one thing if you are trying to sell a very expensive home with an unpopular architectural style. It's another if you're marketing a modest or at least non-extravagent home in a good location with great schools. Still another if you have a view property...or a lot that could be split.  And no matter what, overpriced just won't work.

A view of the big picture in the Los Gatos real estate market reveals that 2006 was a lot tougher on sellers (and folks watching their equity) than 2007 was.  The first three quarters of 2007 were remarkably good for single family homes, in fact. Have a look at the "months of inventory" or "absorption rate" by month for last year for single family homes. (As a point of reference, the National Association of Realtors says that less than 6 months of inventory is a sellers market.)

Absorption rate for single family homes in Los Gatos (95032, 95030) in 2007

For the condo and townhome market, it was even stronger. Once again, it was a little more challenging late in the year (not an unusual pattern for any year).

Absorption rate or months of inventory for the condo and townhouse real estate market in Los Gatos for 2007 (95030, 95032)

 What about now?  How is the inventory of homes in Los Gatos right now?

About one house in four is selling in this area overall. That's pretty much the case in Los Gatos, Saratoga, and Cambrian Park. In Los Gatos there are 97 single family homes available and 27 sale pending (in Saratoga it's 61 and 17, and in Cambrian Park it's 140 and 34).

The condo market, which was much stronger throughout 2007 than the single family market, is now cooler than the single family home market in town. As of today, January 21st, there are 26 townhouses or condominiums for sale and just 2 under contract or sale pending. (So instead of a 1 in 4 chance of selling, it's closer to 1 in 10.)  In Saratoga it's a little better with 10 available and 3 pending. In Cambrian there are 41 "class 2" (condo/townhome) on the market and 7 which are pending sales.

Every market presents an opportunity for buyers or sellers. Where's the best real estate opportunity in Los Gatos now?

Late in 2007, it appeared to be an ideal time to be a "move up buyer" - to sell that townhouse and to buy a single family home.  Now, early in 2008, the opportunity has shifted. It is now a great time to sell that single family home and to downsize into a townhouse or condominium.

The market is always changing and the micro markets can all be different from the general trends in the town. If you'd like to discuss your home, your neighborhood, or buying and selling, please send me an email or give me a call. I'd be happy to set up a time to talk with you about your unique situation.

Mary Pope-Handy

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