How's the Los Gatos housing market now and over the last two years?  The "supply and demand" graph gives a good visual clue as to the challenge of selling in this corner of SiliconValley. Relative to what's on the market, only a few Los Gatos homes are selling. (Charts and data per Clarus Matrix, a perk of our MLS and real estate board.)

Pricing (or "home value") is perhaps the most important thing to home owners. "What's my home worth?" is the question. Prices are improving in some segments of the market - homes "in the schools" and under about 1 million are in very high demand and that may be pushing prices upward.

The "months of inventory" or absorption rate indicates how long it would take Los Gatos homes for sale to be absorbed by buyers if homes continued to sell at the current rate per month and no new inventory came on the market. (Less than 6 months is a sellers market, more than 6 a buyers market.)

 The chart below would have us thinking that the sellers are very happy and that homes are fying off the market - the first chart, though, tells the broader picture of supply & demand. What IS happening, then? Some Los Gatos homes in some prices are selling really well, but many others languish.

Inventory is now declining. This is more acute in some price points and school districts than others, but overall, the available supply of Los Gatos real estate for sale is now noticeably less than at the peak.

The average days on market for Los Gatos homes for sale has jumped around quite a bit. We do seem to be past the peak - but with so much "up & down", it's hard to be sure. Let's hope that the worst is behind us.

A look at all the charts collectively would seem to indicate that although the market is tough on sellers and great for buyers overall, as a whole the town may have already hit its bottom.  We won't know unless things are stable and continue improving for another year or so.  And, of course, this is "general information" for our town. Your particular neighborhood could be behaving very differently since micro markets are very important here.  Please call or email me for information on your particular market.

The Museums of Los Gatos are again sponsoring the always fun & interesting Historic Homes Tours on Saturday and Sunday, November 1 and 2, 2008, from 10am - 4pm.  For more information on the tour of these Victorian-era beauties, please contact the Museums of Los Gatos at 408 395-7386 or visit them online at www.MuseumsOfLosGatos.org.

                 Open House Saturday August 9, 2pm to 4pm
               
          Great Home, Great Location, Los Gatos Schools!

Last month I listed a great home that's in an ideal Los Gatos location - close to award-winning, highly acclaimed Los Gatos Schools: Van Meter Elementary School, Blossom Hill School, and Fisher Middle School. It's also a quick jaunt to the wonderful shops, banks, grocery stores and restaurants at the intersection of Blossom Hill Road and Los Gatos Boulevard.

Recently, the house at 120 Magneson Terrace in Los Gatos got a new roof and a big price reduction. It is a tremendous value!

Details:

120 Magneson Terrace (off Magneson Loop and Los Gatos Blvd or Shannon Road)
MLS # 814262
3 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms
Living Room, Dining Room, Bonus Room (office, library, music room)
Hardwood Floors
Air Conditioning
Brand New Roof
Quiet cul-de-sac location
appx 1800 SF home
lot size appx 8700 SF

Yesterday the sellers lowered the price dramatically AGAIN, and it's now a fantastic buy at $1,250,000! Hurry!



Folks who should consider this home include those wanting:

"Walk to Schools" or "Bike To Schools" or "Two minute drive to schools"

As well as those who want to be close to buslines, close enough to shops, banks, grocery stores, and restaurants that they could get there without a car.

For more details, please visit www.PopeHandy.com and click on Mary's Featured Properties.
Click this link to see a Virtual Tour of 120 Magneson Terrace, Los Gatos, CA


Best regards,
Mary Pope-Handy

The Los Gatos real estate market is composed of many micro-markets in housing type, location, price point and condition. A Los Gatos condo in one school district may be in an entirely different type of market than an estate home with a view of the Santa Clara Valley or a golf course, of course.

Overall, though, the market here in Los Gatos is healthier than in many other areas within Silicon Valley. One one of measuring the health of the housing market is to follow the absorption rate. The absorption rate reflects the amount of time it would take for the current inventory of homes for sale to be bought up if no new homes came on the market and sales continued at their current pace. It can be days of inventory, weeks of inventory, or months of inventory tracked.

The National Association of Realtors uses 6 months of inventory as the tipping point between the market favoring buyers vs sellers. Under 6 months' inventory is said to be a sellers' market, and over 6 months is said to be a buyers' market. In the San Jose area, though, we are behind on housing starts and are used to homes selling fairly quickly, so most sellers will not feel as though 4, 5, or nearly 6 months' of inventory is really a market in their favor. They expect to sell in a few weeks, not a few months.

Here's a graph I did of the months of inventory in the Los Gatos real estate market for the first half of 2008 (in green) and also, for comparison's sake, the first half of 2007:

As you can see, the market was worse for buyers (better for sellers) in the same timeframe in 2007 as it is now. Since the months of inventory is a ratio of that month's closed sales to its active inventory, this data really reflects the month or so prior in terms of when purchase agreements were signed and accepted.  So looking at the numbers in April really shows you what was happening appx 30 days earlier (most of our escrows are about 30 days long).  In 2008, then, May and June were much better than the 4 months prior, and they reflect contracts written in April and May. June 2008 wasn't bad compared to earlier in the year, but clearly, the peak of the market was April because May's closings were the best.

Other data supports this too. I have a subscription to the Real Estate Report and the numbers there suggest that the highest median and average sales prices for single family homes peaked in April too (go to the page for Los Gatos and view the graphs).

Much of 2008 has been off in terms of the usual sales patterns but most years, the peak of the market is somewhere around March or April. At that point, prices frequently hit their high point of the year - great for sellers, not so great for buyers. By summer, the market cools down most years and sellers may be frustrated that they are not seeing the prices from a couple of months earlier in the year. For buyers, though, summer can be ideal since inventory is good and sales are a little lower.

No one can predict if the market will go one way or the other, but I would say that buyers are in a good position now if they want to get into a nice Los Gatos home.  The loan situation has calmed down and market conditions are favorable for most segments of the Los Gatos real estate market and there's a nice selection now. My advice to Los Gatos home buyers is simple: don't wait!

Los Gatos Home Sales Trends

How's the real estate market in the Town of Los Gatos? The Los Gatos housing market varies from one price point and neighborhood to the next, from one type of housing to the next, and even between the town's two zip codes, 95030 and 95032. Here we'll take a view of the overall movement in the market; please understand that it may or may not apply to your Los Gatos home so please call or email me for specific information relating to your property.

Overall, Los Gatos continues to be a buyer's market, though not as deep as in other places in Santa Clara County. Inventory is rising in both single family homes and in condos/townhomes, which is a typical trend for this time of year.

The market has improved somewhat over a month ago in terms of median and average sales price (the graphs below use a 12 month moving average, but the actual numbers do show an uptick). To view the report for Los Gatos using the actual numbers rather than the moving average, please have a look at my new online Real Estate Report. Below are links to specific pages within it that are most relavent to the readers of this blog:

(1) Single Family homes in Los Gatos
(2) Condos and Townhomes in Los Gatos
(3) The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market (SFH, not enough condos for April report)
(4) Single Family Homes in Saratoga
(5) Condos and Townhomes in Saratoga
(6) Single Family Homes in Almaden Valley
(7) Condominiums and Townhouses in Almaden Valley

How about general trends, using moving averages, in the real estate market for the Town of Los Gatos?

The following chart shows median and average price trends plus sales. The chart uses a 12-month moving average to eliminate any seasonal variation.

The next chart is the same as above but uses a 3-month moving average. This smoothes out month-to-month variations yet shows seasonal variations. Here, you can see the uptick in the number of homes sold in Los Gatos.

This chart shows the current inventory of Los Gatos single family homes for sale compared to the number that have sold in the town.

The next series of charts shows the same thing as above but for condominiums and town homes in the Town of Los Gatos.

Please call or email me for specific information on your particular situation
in Los Gatos or anywhere in Silicon Valley.

It remains a buyer's market in Los Gatos, but not as deep a buyer's market as in many other parts of Silicon Valley.

Below please find links to reports on the local Los Gatos housing market, broken down by zip code and housing type, current as of April 28, 2008.  One of the most helpful aspects of the Altos reports is that it breaks the activity down by market quartiles, so that the activity in entry level homes, for instance, is differentiated from the luxury home market. Have a look:

Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95030

Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95032

Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95030

Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95032

These are care of Altos Research, which uses list prices (rather than sales prices). In a week or so we'll have the data on solds in Los Gatos from April, care of another subscription I have, the Real Estate Report. Please check back soon to get that information.