It's early October - many years, we experience an influx of inventory in Los Gatos homes for sale at about this time (between Labor Day and Halloween). Not this year, though.  It seems that the uptick in available homes for sale mostly happens in years where it's a seller's market.  The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market, especially in the 95030 zip code, where prices continue to fall, has not been a seller's market in most price ranges recently.  It appears that many homeowners are holding onto their homes for now - probably until the market recovers. My buyers are noticing the lack of inventory too.

(On a side note: I do have buyers looking for a turnkey Los Gatos home with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and a less than 10,000 sf lot for up to 1.5 million. Nothing currently on the market is a fit for them - if you have a home that might work, or know of one not currently on the market, please let me know. Either zip code or school area is OK.)

Today we'll have a look at the list prices and inventory for two zip codes, which combined generally make up the area included in the Town of Los Gatos and also the City of Monte Sereno: 95030 and 95032. 95030 is Los Gatos and also Monte Sereno. (There are some funky exceptions: one area with the 95032 zip code out by Pollard and Quito actually belongs to Campbell but has a Los Gatos address for postal reasons. Another area near National and Carlton along the Cambrian border has a San Jose, 95124 mailing address but is actually Los Gatos - same thing, for postal reasons the mailing address is off.)

Another caveat - and a big one - is that today's study does not include a breakdown by school district. This can be a leading indicator of how your particular neighborhood might be faring.  Altos does not use this criteria so I can't factor it in with this study.  On August 24th, I did a post on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog on the Los Gatos Real Estate Market that did include the school district information.  This is great data but takes many hours to assemble, so it's not something I can provide often. But have a look there too - many of the trends are unchanged, even if the exact numbers are different:

The charts below were created by me with Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and the right to publish the charts. Altos uses LIST PRICES in its data fyi.

List prices with both zip codes combined, market separated out by quartile over the last 6 months:

Just 95030 - closer to downtown, usually, than most of 95032, and almost 100% "in the schools", this is a more expensive place to live than 95032:

Now just 95032:

Now inventory - the upper cluster of quartiles is 95032, the lower one is 95030:

Combining quartiles is a little easier (a quartile is 25% of the market so of course the four tiers will always be about the name in number as each other).

What's interesting is that although the 95030 zip code is usually more in demand (due to downtown Los Gatos proximity and the famed schools), those more expensive homes have not been getting scooped up by the market quite as fast as the homes in 95032. The latter are more affordable - and affordability is key in most price points. The days on market for Los Gatos homes for sale by zip code and quartile:

Altos provides a "median market action index" (greater than 30 is a sellers market)  that is quite interesting - note the huge difference:
 

Next, by zip code and price quartile.  95030 is "all over the board, with some parts trending downward and others moving upward...

Now for Los Gatos 95032, which seems to be behaving more as a unified group than 95030:

In most of the 95032 price points, the market's been improving. It's still a buyer's market, but until August or September, it was improving steadily.

How's the market? Really needs to be, "how's your specific market?"  The lowest price points in 95030 are selling well - which has been the case for months. The most expensive homes in 95030 are lagging the most - which has also been the trend.  The less expensive homes in 95032 are faring better overall. If we were to break 95032 down by school district (as I did in the post referenced above), we'd find that the homes selling the best are the ones with Los Gatos Schools (not Moreland or Union). 

For information on your particular corner of the Los Gatos real estate market or the Monte Sereno real estate market, please contact me. I'd be happy to chat with you - no obligation.

Are home prices rising in Los Gatos? It does appear that way.  What is reported, though, may not be what it seems.

Below are the stats for the closed sales in July - they are still off, year over year, considerably, but they are up from the month before.

Los Gatos Single Family Home Statistics - Closed Sales

Los Gatos Condominium and Townhouse Statistics - Closed Sales

What does it mean?

Clearly, while single family home sold prices are higher than a month ago, this is not the case for condos and townhomes (which have been "beat up" in this market, all over San Jose and also countywide).   This is our first clue that "the Los Gatos Market" is again not one unified block, with everyone benefitting equally.   Rather, there are micro-markets.  Part of the market is advancing strongly - the lower priced homes in the Los Gatos School District - and those homes are selling and appreciating briskly.  Other parts of the market, such as the townhouse and condominium market, the luxury market, and the homes not in the Los Gatos school area, are not faring as well.   In fact, most homes in Los Gatos are not selling at all, and overall, it is still very much a buyer's market, but it IS improving.

Below, please see a chart displaying the "market barometer" for Los Gatos. NB the gap between the number of properties on the market (168) and those sold (28) - divide the former by the latter to get the "months of inventory", which is 6 months right now.  According to the National Association of Realtors, 6 months is a "balanced market" or a "neutral market".

How can this be? How is it possible for it to be a neutral market (or in some segments of Los Gatos, a buyer's market) when prices are rising (and homebuyers are experiencing multiple offers in places)?

It's not happening in every segment of the Los Gatos market, that's how.  The homes that are selling are doing well. But many - most - remain unsold.

Broad sweep - here's a view of inventory by Los Gatos zip code (95030 and 95032):

As you can see, inventory is rising among homes in the 95030 part of Los Gatos, but falling among 95032 (often more affordable).

Here's the 95030 zip code area by price quartile:

And here's the 95032 part of Los Gatos by price quartile:

Unfortunately, I cannot break out the school district differential with this subscription, but anecdotal information indicates that homes "in the schools" are the ones selling with multiple offers if they are priced low (close to or under $1 million). So I went to the MLS and checked a few numbers myself.

Right now in 95030 and 95032, there are 47 single family homes for sale in the Campbell Union High School District (meaning Leigh High & Westmont High), and 4 closed sales of the same in the last month.  That is an 11.75 month supply of inventory.

Right now in 95030 and 95032 there are 159 single family homes for sale in the Los Gatos-Saratoga High School District, with 28 closed sales in the last month, which is a 5.67 month supply of inventory.

Price point aside, the school district is the driving force.

List prices by zip code in Los Gatos:

Prices are rising more in the 95032 part of Los Gatos than in the less-affordable 95030 part of town. Knowing what we do about the months of inventory, what we see are that the most affordable homes with the schools are the "hot" segment of the market. 

What homes are these?  The ones where a buyer can get into a single family home for close to a million dollars or less (up to about 1.3 mil max) and enjoy the Los Gatos Schools.  Even so, houses must be "turnkey" and priced aggressively.

Homes outside of this parameter - which is most of the Los Gatos real estate market - are struggling.

Please contact me for help in buying or selling a home anywhere in Los Gatos.

How's the Los Gatos housing market now and over the last two years?  The "supply and demand" graph gives a good visual clue as to the challenge of selling in this corner of SiliconValley. Relative to what's on the market, only a few Los Gatos homes are selling. (Charts and data per Clarus Matrix, a perk of our MLS and real estate board.)

Pricing (or "home value") is perhaps the most important thing to home owners. "What's my home worth?" is the question. Prices are improving in some segments of the market - homes "in the schools" and under about 1 million are in very high demand and that may be pushing prices upward.

The "months of inventory" or absorption rate indicates how long it would take Los Gatos homes for sale to be absorbed by buyers if homes continued to sell at the current rate per month and no new inventory came on the market. (Less than 6 months is a sellers market, more than 6 a buyers market.)

 The chart below would have us thinking that the sellers are very happy and that homes are fying off the market - the first chart, though, tells the broader picture of supply & demand. What IS happening, then? Some Los Gatos homes in some prices are selling really well, but many others languish.

Inventory is now declining. This is more acute in some price points and school districts than others, but overall, the available supply of Los Gatos real estate for sale is now noticeably less than at the peak.

The average days on market for Los Gatos homes for sale has jumped around quite a bit. We do seem to be past the peak - but with so much "up & down", it's hard to be sure. Let's hope that the worst is behind us.

A look at all the charts collectively would seem to indicate that although the market is tough on sellers and great for buyers overall, as a whole the town may have already hit its bottom.  We won't know unless things are stable and continue improving for another year or so.  And, of course, this is "general information" for our town. Your particular neighborhood could be behaving very differently since micro markets are very important here.  Please call or email me for information on your particular market.

In addition to doing a post comparing Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, and Saratoga today, I also did one on just the Monte Sereno real estate market in my other blog at ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com. If you are tracking the Monte Sereno housing market, please have a look at this article, which discusses the days on market, inventory level, percentage of homes relisting, and pricing trends.  Find it on the ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com site or click directly on this link:

Monte Sereno: How’s the Market?

The Los Gatos real estate market varies by zip code, school district, neighborhood and price point.

The schools are a huge factor in sales prices and overall desireability, even if the buyers want to have their kids attend private schools. So let's consider that imact too. The 95030 zip code is entirely in the Los Gatos School District, but the 95032 zip code is partly "in the schools" and partly in the Campbell Union High School District. The 95033 zip code reflects the Los Gatos Mountain areas (such as Redwood Estates, Chemeketa Park, etc.), which are not actually part of the town but have a Los Gatos mailing address. The schools in the mountains are quite good and they feed into Los Gatos High School.

I. Overview:  Today we'll first have a broad overview of the major real estate indicators across 95030, 95032, and 95033, then focus in on pricing by zip code in particular.

1.) Here's a snapshot of how the Los Gatos real estate market is faring by zip code and major indicators. First, let's look at the median list price of single family homes in these zip codes:

The median list price is clearly declining across all zip codes.

2.) And here's the inventory situation by zip code in Los Gatos, which as you can see hit a peak a month or two ago but has been declining recently:

3.) Finally, here is a view of the days on market in the same three parts of Los Gatos:

II. Pricing Information by zip code and quartile.

1.) The days on market are rising across all zip codes and the ratio appears fairly similar from one to the next.

2.) Next, the same data for 95032:

3.) And lastly the same information for the mountain areas of 95033:

Generally speaking

-the inventory is not as high as a few months ago and appears to be enjoying a downward trend.

-days on the market are climbing overall

-median list price has been falling - in some areas and price points, it's not terribly dire, but in others the situation is more extreme.

Overall, the market continues to deteriorate for sellers and improve for buyers. Any particular home may or may not fit neatly into the patterns shared above, so please contact me for more information on your home or your dream home!

View From Los Gatos