Trulia is a great source for real estate information, but when it reports on the distressed housing sector, it relies on Realty Trac, which I have found to be inaccurate and unreliable much of the time. Twice I've had a subscription to Realty Trac and seen homes showing up on their database which were long since closed, for instance (so the numbers were inflated). If you are visiting these sites to get a sense of the distressed housing market in Los Gatos, please allow me to provide you information from our MLS as of today. You may be surprised that it's not quite as bad as it may appear on that site. 

A couple of disclaimers: first is that not all distressed homes are for sale. The first step in the foreclosure market is receiving a Notice of Default. Some people do "catch up" and that NOD never turns into a foreclosure.

In other cases, the home may be on the market with a NOD but is not actually a short sale - there's enough equity in the home so that when it sells, the bank will be paid off in full. Those types of sales are "under the radar" as our MLS only tracks homes identified as short sales and those known to be bank owned (which the agents are required to disclose).

That said, here's the information as of today on homes in Los Gatos which are short sales or bank owned. I am including the Santa Cruz mountain areas as well (95033). These numbers are far lower than in much of Silicon Valley:

One extreme, in these times of financial chaos nationwide, is to assume that Los Gatos is "tanking". That is one extreme that I hope I have helped to dispell here. The other extreme is to assume that we are somehow so insulated in our beautiful haven that we are not impacted by the crisis at all. Make no doubt, Los Gatans are feeling the effects of the mortgage meltdown and the crisis in our economy overall. The lack of available credit is hurting home buyers and home sellers, but also those who work in any industry where having credit matters or where spending is a matter of discretion. So Los Gatans who sell automobiles are hurting right along side those who sell houses or have anything to do with the Silicon Valley real estate market.  The lack of available money to loan is part of the formula which is pushing house prices down, of course.

So yes, Los Gatos is impacted by the mortgage crisis and general roller coaster on Wall Street. Some homeowners are in real trouble with their mortgages. Many residents who work in credit-dependent fields are making much less then they used to and in some cases have walked away from careers in lending and selling altogether. But the sky isn't falling on our housing market. The numbers, above, are proof enough of that.

For more posts on short sales and bank owned properties in Los Gatos (and nearby) please see:
http://www.realtown.com/LiveInLosGatos/blog/short-sales-and-bank-owned-homes

Los Gatos Home Sales Trends

How's the real estate market in the Town of Los Gatos? The Los Gatos housing market varies from one price point and neighborhood to the next, from one type of housing to the next, and even between the town's two zip codes, 95030 and 95032. Here we'll take a view of the overall movement in the market; please understand that it may or may not apply to your Los Gatos home so please call or email me for specific information relating to your property.

Overall, Los Gatos continues to be a buyer's market, though not as deep as in other places in Santa Clara County. Inventory is rising in both single family homes and in condos/townhomes, which is a typical trend for this time of year.

The market has improved somewhat over a month ago in terms of median and average sales price (the graphs below use a 12 month moving average, but the actual numbers do show an uptick). To view the report for Los Gatos using the actual numbers rather than the moving average, please have a look at my new online Real Estate Report. Below are links to specific pages within it that are most relavent to the readers of this blog:

(1) Single Family homes in Los Gatos
(2) Condos and Townhomes in Los Gatos
(3) The Monte Sereno Real Estate Market (SFH, not enough condos for April report)
(4) Single Family Homes in Saratoga
(5) Condos and Townhomes in Saratoga
(6) Single Family Homes in Almaden Valley
(7) Condominiums and Townhouses in Almaden Valley

How about general trends, using moving averages, in the real estate market for the Town of Los Gatos?

The following chart shows median and average price trends plus sales. The chart uses a 12-month moving average to eliminate any seasonal variation.

The next chart is the same as above but uses a 3-month moving average. This smoothes out month-to-month variations yet shows seasonal variations. Here, you can see the uptick in the number of homes sold in Los Gatos.

This chart shows the current inventory of Los Gatos single family homes for sale compared to the number that have sold in the town.

The next series of charts shows the same thing as above but for condominiums and town homes in the Town of Los Gatos.

Please call or email me for specific information on your particular situation
in Los Gatos or anywhere in Silicon Valley.

It remains a buyer's market in Los Gatos, but not as deep a buyer's market as in many other parts of Silicon Valley.

Below please find links to reports on the local Los Gatos housing market, broken down by zip code and housing type, current as of April 28, 2008.  One of the most helpful aspects of the Altos reports is that it breaks the activity down by market quartiles, so that the activity in entry level homes, for instance, is differentiated from the luxury home market. Have a look:

Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95030

Los Gatos Single Family Homes in 95032

Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95030

Los Gatos Condos and Townhomes in 95032

These are care of Altos Research, which uses list prices (rather than sales prices). In a week or so we'll have the data on solds in Los Gatos from April, care of another subscription I have, the Real Estate Report. Please check back soon to get that information.

For the most recent Los Gatos real estate market information, please click on the category Homes & Housing Market link. The Los Gatos real estate market is a frequent topic of discussion here, so please visit often.

What is the housing market doing in Los Gatos now? Market analysts are divided as to whether it will settle down by the end of this quarter and bring us a better 2008 or if the market will continue to be sluggish for another year or two with increasingly decling sales and in some areas, declining home values. No one knows the future, but there are convincing arguements for both outcomes!

Let's have a look at October's numbers.

Los Gatos prices are up from a year ago -13.7% for the median sales price and 21.5% for the average sales price. But the number of sales was off a whopping 60.6% from the same month last year!

Are home values rising? Not necessarily.

This could be an indicator that what little is selling happens to be selling in the wealthier sectors
of the market. Low end homes are possibly suffering a more direct hit from the mortgage fallout than the extremely high end homes.

An excellent tool for evaluating the market is the absorption rate or "months of inventory". It is the rate at which homes are selling - it is a better indicator than days on the market as it incorporates the pace at which new listings are coming on the market too. This number shows how many months it would take to sell off the current inventory if no new homes were to come on the market. Below please find my graphs for single family homes and also for condos in Los Gatos this year.

Below please find the Single Family Homes in Los Gatos in 2007 "Months of Inventory" (fewer months is a stronger seller's market, more months is a stronger buyer's market). Data pulled from REIL.com, our mls provider.

Over 6 months is considered to be a "Buyer's Market". So the market has become much more favorable for buyers this fall. (Buyers: this is a good opportunity for you to buy now!)

Below, please find Condos and Townhomes in Los Gatos in 2007 "Months of Inventory" (data from REIL, our local MLS provider - math by Mary).

Interestingly, the condo market appears healthier than the single family home market. Is it a matter of affordability? I suspect that it's driven by first time homebuyers who have cash in hand. The more entry level homes in Los Gatos that are single family homes are frequently not a buyer's first home, but a step up. The lower priced homes in the valley are having trouble selling because of the subprime fallout. My thinking is that the stalling out of those sales is impacting the ability to sell entry level homes in Los Gatos.

Here's a key "take away" from this peculiar disparity: this is an EXCELLENT time for condo and townhome owners to sell their current home and make a move up into a single family home. Seldom do things line up so perfectly for this kind of a move!

Want more data? My Real Estate Report is now updated with October's numbers for Los Gatos, Saratoga, and all of Silicon Valley (including by district within San Jose such as Almaden Valley, Cambrian Park, Willow Glen).

You can review San Jose real estate, Santa Clara County real estate, Saratoga real estate, Monte Sereno real estate or the real estate numbers of any city in the county or any district within San Jose. This data is covered monthly back to 2001 so there is a wealth of helpful information.

To view charts of market activity, sales and listings in Los Gatos in particular, click on this link: Los Gatos real estate report for houses  or Los Gatos real estate report for condominiums & townhomes.

This report is updated monthly, usually around the 7th-10th of the month.

For more information on the market, your neighborhood or your home, please contact me!

Warm regards,
Mary

 Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, RECS, CNHS
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: "Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley"
408 204-7673 (Cell)
www.PopeHandy.com  www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com
Mary@PopeHandy.com

The housing market in Silicon Valley is often different from the rest of the US, as our economy here is fueled by the high tech sector in particular.  Los Gatos is on the expensive end of the spectrum and when the computer industry or biotech here fare poorly, so does our housing market in the west valley.  Right now they're doing very well, and hence, so is the market in the areas closest to the coastal foothills.  But cross the valley to the less-wealthy areas with poorer schools, and it's an entirely different experience. A lot of it appears to do with the disaster happening in the mortgage industry right now.

Broderick Perkins, a real estate writer and owner of Deadline News,  lives locally and discusses our strangely bifurcated market in an excellent article in Realty Times titled "Silicon Valley Housing Statistics 'Freak You Out'". In a nutshell, Los Gatos has a robust housing market right now, as do the more high-end areas like Cupertino, Palo Alto, Sunnyvale, Saratoga, and Monte Sereno (not an exclusive list).  Broderick always has good, current info on the local real estate market - he is a lot more accurate than our local newspapers, in fact - so I'd encourage you to bookmark his website and check it often to know what is really going on. One tidbit that I'll tease you with from his article is a fact about the number of foreclosures falling in Silicon Valley.  Click on the link above and check it out. You may be surprised!

View From Los Gatos