If you are thinking of buying or selling a Los Gatos condo or townhouse, it's helpful to know what the market's doing - that is, what are the Los Gatos real estate trends and statistics for the condo market. 

Today we'll have a look at the Los Gatos condo market in terms of pricing, inventory, and days on market.  We will study Los Gatos as a whole and broken out by zip code,  and also by price quartile too.  The data below is via Altos Research, to which I am a subscriber & so I have the right to use the charts & graphs here. (Note: Altos Research uses list prices, not sold prices.) The charts I'm uploading will automatically update, so if you pull up this post long after it's been written, the charts will still be "live" and should be accurate.

First, the pricing trends for condos and townhomes in 95030 and 95032 combined (so all of Los Gatos together) over the last year, and separated by quartile:

 

Generally, it's been a year of some increases but overall decreases in list prices year over year (as of late October 2009).

Following, the two zip codes separated, but the quartiles combined:

 

Interestingly, the 95030 part of Los Gatos was dropping this time last year (10-2008) while the 95032 market was mostly improving.  I suspect that this is due to the cost of living: 95032 is simply less expensive.

Getting more specific:  now see Los Gatos 95030 condos and townhomes, broken out by price quartile:

 

Fascinating to see what happened with the group that had been the second quartile and ended up at the bottom!  The deepest decines in value (or pricing)  have come in the highest price ranges.  This is true in Saratoga and other high-end markets around Silicon Valley and in parts of San Jose (such as Almaden Valley) too.

Same pricing info but for Los Gatos 95032:


The 95032 patterns seemed to follow a more understandable path than 95030.

Next, inventory - the available townhouses and condominiums to buy in Los Gatos (both zips combined)over the last 12 months:

Inventory for 95030:



And inventory for 95032:

 

Now, we'll look at the average Days on Market. Things are really interesting here as we view all of Los Gatos by quartile.:

And again, we'll drill down to the zip code & quartile view of the Los Gatos condo and townhome market as we consider the average days on market:



 In the 95030 part of Los Gatos, interestingly, the least expensive condos are taking the longest to sell.  Why might that be the case? Here's my hunch:  most of this zip code is "in the schools" (enjoying Blossom Hill Elementary, Van Meter Elementry, or Daves Avenue School as well as Fisher Middle School and Los Gatos High). The least expensive homes often fall into one of two categories: seniors housing (Alberto Way, the Los Gatos Commons) or small, entry level condos with only one bedroom.  Neither of these would require the highly regarded Los Gatos Schools. 

Conversely, in the 95032 part of town, it's the most expensive townhomes and condos that are taking the longest to sell. A possible reason is that people who can afford a high end condo can also afford a single family home - and right now, the houses have come down so much in price that they are not as out of reach as they were in the past. Most likely, homebuyers are preferring to buy a house (perhaps in Cambrian Park or Willow Glen) rather than a costly condo.

Even more data:

I just ran a little more info off of MLSListings.com, our MLS provider here in the San Jose area, and see that in Los Gatos (both zip codes) 26 condos and townhomes sold & closed in the last month, and there are 132 available today.  That means there are  5 months of inventory, which is just a little into the seller's market territory.

95030 -  51 available, 6 sold in last month = 8.5 months of inventory - av sales price = $1,301,667

95032 -  81 available, 20 sold in last month = 4.05 months of inventory - av sales pr = $1,068,360

Very very interesting that it's approximately twice as easy to sell a condo in 95032 than in 95030. In most of Santa Clara County, the most affordable homes are the ones selling the best.  That general trend appears to be in full swing here in Los Gatos among the townhouse and condo market too.

If you'd like to sell or buy a Los Gatos condo or townhouse, please contact me.  I'd be happy to have a confidential, no obligation conversation with you about your wants, needs and plans.

Although it can be a bit of a challenge to sell a condominium or townhome in Los Gatos, it's not impossible if the pricing, staging, and marketing are all correct.  

Are home prices rising in Los Gatos? It does appear that way.  What is reported, though, may not be what it seems.

Below are the stats for the closed sales in July - they are still off, year over year, considerably, but they are up from the month before.

Los Gatos Single Family Home Statistics - Closed Sales

Los Gatos Condominium and Townhouse Statistics - Closed Sales

What does it mean?

Clearly, while single family home sold prices are higher than a month ago, this is not the case for condos and townhomes (which have been "beat up" in this market, all over San Jose and also countywide).   This is our first clue that "the Los Gatos Market" is again not one unified block, with everyone benefitting equally.   Rather, there are micro-markets.  Part of the market is advancing strongly - the lower priced homes in the Los Gatos School District - and those homes are selling and appreciating briskly.  Other parts of the market, such as the townhouse and condominium market, the luxury market, and the homes not in the Los Gatos school area, are not faring as well.   In fact, most homes in Los Gatos are not selling at all, and overall, it is still very much a buyer's market, but it IS improving.

Below, please see a chart displaying the "market barometer" for Los Gatos. NB the gap between the number of properties on the market (168) and those sold (28) - divide the former by the latter to get the "months of inventory", which is 6 months right now.  According to the National Association of Realtors, 6 months is a "balanced market" or a "neutral market".

How can this be? How is it possible for it to be a neutral market (or in some segments of Los Gatos, a buyer's market) when prices are rising (and homebuyers are experiencing multiple offers in places)?

It's not happening in every segment of the Los Gatos market, that's how.  The homes that are selling are doing well. But many - most - remain unsold.

Broad sweep - here's a view of inventory by Los Gatos zip code (95030 and 95032):

As you can see, inventory is rising among homes in the 95030 part of Los Gatos, but falling among 95032 (often more affordable).

Here's the 95030 zip code area by price quartile:

And here's the 95032 part of Los Gatos by price quartile:

Unfortunately, I cannot break out the school district differential with this subscription, but anecdotal information indicates that homes "in the schools" are the ones selling with multiple offers if they are priced low (close to or under $1 million). So I went to the MLS and checked a few numbers myself.

Right now in 95030 and 95032, there are 47 single family homes for sale in the Campbell Union High School District (meaning Leigh High & Westmont High), and 4 closed sales of the same in the last month.  That is an 11.75 month supply of inventory.

Right now in 95030 and 95032 there are 159 single family homes for sale in the Los Gatos-Saratoga High School District, with 28 closed sales in the last month, which is a 5.67 month supply of inventory.

Price point aside, the school district is the driving force.

List prices by zip code in Los Gatos:

Prices are rising more in the 95032 part of Los Gatos than in the less-affordable 95030 part of town. Knowing what we do about the months of inventory, what we see are that the most affordable homes with the schools are the "hot" segment of the market. 

What homes are these?  The ones where a buyer can get into a single family home for close to a million dollars or less (up to about 1.3 mil max) and enjoy the Los Gatos Schools.  Even so, houses must be "turnkey" and priced aggressively.

Homes outside of this parameter - which is most of the Los Gatos real estate market - are struggling.

Please contact me for help in buying or selling a home anywhere in Los Gatos.

The real estate market seems to be turning, but primarily in the lower priced areas of Silicon Valley.  The single family homes in the lowest price points seem to be flying off the market.  In some areas, the majority of houses that fit that description are bank owned and short sale properties (such as the Alum Rock district of San Jose, where all but 5% of home sales in the first quarter were distressed property sales).

But what about Los Gatos?

At this point there are 254 homes for sale (single family homes, condos and townhomes), 56 pending sales and 29 which have closed in the last thirty days. That represents an inventory of 8.75 months (listings divided by closed sales).  It's also evident that not everything which sells actually closes since the ratio of pendings to list prices is stronger than the ratio of closeds to list prices.

The lowest priced homes in Los Gatos are faring better than more expensive homes in Los Gatos, which is also the case throughout Santa Clara County.

Here are some graphs to help Live in Los Gatos readers to see what's happening in Los Gatos:

As you can see from the graphs, the condos (representing the lowest price points in Los Gatos) seem to be faring better than the single family homes.

Below is a chart of the list prices for single family homes in Los Gatos with 95030 and 95032 zip codes ("in the town") as well as 95033 (county area in the mountains).  In all cases, the market is more favorable in the lowest price points.

It was a cold morning here in Belwood of Los Gatos. Our outside thermometer indicated that temps were just over freezing.  Looking down the street when grabbing the newspaper, I saw many roofs with various degrees of frost covering them.

Did you know that in the case of frost on the roof, more is better? On my Valley of Hearts Delight blog today, I present a few photos and explain why you'll want to check your roof on icy mornings, whether you are buying a home, selling a home, or maintaining one.

To learn more, please read on:
What Can You Learn from a Silicon Valley Roof on a Frosty Morning?

 

The San Jose Mercury News reports that a group home for developmentally disabled adults is coming to Los Gatos.  Since Agnews Developmental Center in Santa Clara is closing, those residents must all be placed elsewhere. Five of them will be housed in Los Gatos in a home being built on Mulberry Drive (which is off Wedgewood Dr, between Lora Drive and La Rinconada Drive)  near the golf course.

For neighbors, this is a concern due to lack of parking already; the five residents plus caregivers and visitors will make the area more congested still.

To read more about this, please visit the Merc's article, Group Home to be Built in Los Gatos Neighborhood.

The Museums of Los Gatos are again sponsoring the always fun & interesting Historic Homes Tours on Saturday and Sunday, November 1 and 2, 2008, from 10am - 4pm.  For more information on the tour of these Victorian-era beauties, please contact the Museums of Los Gatos at 408 395-7386 or visit them online at www.MuseumsOfLosGatos.org.