Los Gatos, California
Los Gatos real estate, neighborhoods, condos, houses, homes, market trends, history, events, lifestyle, parks, events, businesses, home, Mary Pope-Handy
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Sep. 18, 2008
Today's Merc headlines were the most depressing economically that we've seen in years with the highlights being the crash on Wall Street, the rise of foreclosures in many San Jose zip codes, and the state of California's budget crisis.
The piece on foreclosed homes, written by Sue McAllister, focused on the zip codes in San Jose where foreclosures are between about 1% and 2.6% and on the issue of blight in vacant homes. Lenders can't keep up with their paperwork on these distressed properties, let alone worry about watering and mowing lawns and keeping homes from being vandalized. As might be expected, the areas hardest hit with these problems are those with the lowest income. Cambrian Park, Willow Glen, The Rosegarden, West San Jose and Almaden Valley did not rank among the areas with high levels of foreclosures. The Mercury News article did not cover just short sales, but homes in any stage of foreclosure.
Short sales are usually the first step in the foreclosure process, as many homeowners who've been served a Notice of Default and know or believe that they cannot save their home will try to get out from under the mortgage burden with as little credit damage as possible, and thus turn their efforts to the hope and opportunity that a short sale may provide.
[Some agents are trying to help homeowners to not just cut their losses when they lose their homes, but instead to cut their debt pressure and keep their homes. A friend of mine in Tuscon, Frances Flynn Thorsen, has a forum to help homeowners keep their homes. (You can read about it here.)]
Back to the issue of distressed Silicon Valley properties: I've been tracking short sales for about six months in selected areas of Silicon Valley. The parts I've been tracking are largely along the west and northwest part of Santa Clara County, where there is more wealth and stability generally in this market. There is not a shocking rise of short sales in these areas overall. Have a look at the snapshot of short sales among single family homes, condos and townhomes in Silicon Valley:
| |
3/26/2008 |
5/18/2008 |
7/19/2008 |
9/18/2008 |
| Los Gatos |
5 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
| Monte Sereno |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
| Saratoga |
0 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
| Los Gatos Mtns |
3 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
| Cambrian Park |
59 |
63 |
68 |
49 |
| Santa Clara |
56 |
63 |
69 |
75 |
| Campbell |
13 |
19 |
23 |
20 |
| Cupertino |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| Los Altos |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| Sunnyvale |
50 |
58 |
51 |
48 |
| Blossom Valley |
196 |
217 |
190 |
177 |
| San Jose (all) |
1534 |
1777 |
1708 |
1578 |
Blossom Valley, which made the Merc's list, has actually improved on short sales (but perhaps gotten worse with the number which are now bank owned?). Los Gatos is worse. Cambrian Park is better. The total number of San Jose short sales is lower than it was in July or May. (This may be a statistical blip as some homeowners may be getting an extra window of time before feeling pressured to sell.)
So what can be said from this for the Silicon Valley real estate market? We have had a bifurcated market for a couple of years already in which the wealthier areas have been fairly stable and the poorer areas have been badly impacted by the mortgage crisis and the general state of the economy. We are not yet seeing the end of the tunnel in terms of the foreclosures in Santa Clara County - more are to come as adjustable loans are reset and an oversupply of cheap, bank owned housing puts downward pressure on pricing in many districts.
At the same time, turnkey, fully remodeled homes in areas with excellent schools and aggressive pricing are still selling - and at times with multiple offers. Buyers are being picky, because they can be picky with so much selection available.
Buyers with large cash downpayments are calling the shots generally, but sellers with "like new", high quality homes in areas where the schools have API scores over 900 are running their own show too. How's the market? It completely depends on where you're looking.
Jul. 19, 2008
What's happening with the number of short sales in Silicon Valley? Are they rising or falling? How does this impact the real estate market in various parts of Santa Clara County?
Let's have a look at the numbers over the last few months in selected areas of Silicon Valley. Below, please find the number of active (for sale) short sale listings of single family homes and condominiums or townhomes in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno, Saratoga, and other parts of the San Jose area.
| |
3/26/2008 |
5/18/2008 |
7/19/2008 |
| Los Gatos |
5 |
8 |
7 |
| Monte Sereno |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| Saratoga |
0 |
1 |
4 |
| Los Gatos Mtns |
3 |
2 |
3 |
| Cambrian Park |
59 |
63 |
68 |
| Santa Clara |
56 |
63 |
69 |
| Campbell |
13 |
19 |
23 |
| Cupertino |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| Los Altos |
0 |
2 |
1 |
| Sunnyvale |
50 |
58 |
51 |
| Blossom Valley |
196 |
217 |
190 |
| San Jose (all) |
1534 |
1777 |
1708 |
While there's a noticeable rise from late March to late May, the numbers are backing down a bit now.
Can we infer anything from this? Yes and no.
First of all, we do not see a worsening of the market overall - the doom and gloomers would like us to think that the sky is falling on the local real estate market, but looking through this lens, it doesn't appear to be the case. If the numbers of short sales were swelling, it would portend lower prices because short sales themselves tend to sell for less, and most short sales eventually turn into foreclosures - and they also sell for far less than homes which are lived in and loved.
On the other hand, we are not done seeing loans reset. That is, a lot of folks took out mortgages a few years ago with adjustable rate loans that would be level for 3, 5, 7, or 10 years. As some of these get reset, there may well be more people in trouble who scramble to sell with a short payoff to the bank or who otherwise cannot make the new, higher payments. So we may be getting new waves of homes in the short sale pool.
Whenever I do a post on foreclosures, short sales, and bank auctioned homes, I get emails and calls about how to buy one of these homes at a steal of a price. So I'm going to quickly recap my input on what to do if you are a bargain hunting buyer:
- The biggest problem with short sales is that although the seller wants to sell, the buyer wants to buy, and the agents want to help their respective clients, the success of the transaction depends on the lending institution approving the sale. In my experience, this is where the problem is - most often, the banks either do not respond (at all, ever), or they take so long to respond that the home's no longer worth what the buyer inititally offered. Worse, some lenders use a servicing company to handle payments, and some of them would rather service a loan through foreclosure than facilitate a short sale. I spent a lot of time in early 2008 putting short sale transactions together, only to have the bank ignore the offers. My advice: save yourself time and effort and buy a home that you can actually close on. (I am not working on short sales any more in this market.)
- When short sales fail to produce a closed transaction, the property continues through the foreclosure process. The next step is the auction by the bank. There is no role for the real estate agent here, so we Realtors can't help you with this stage. With the auction, you'll need a large percentage of cash on hand and you have NO right of recission - no ability to investigate the property and later change your mind. No congingencies - which I think is very, very dangerous.
- Bank owned properties have gone all the way through the foreclosure process. They are usually vacant (in some cases, the bank allows the former owner to stay on as a tenant so that the house is not vacant and vandalized). The bank wants to sell and will permit you to do inspections and to have a reasonable contingency period. The main risk here is that the house may have been beat up by the former owners on their way out. That doesn't always happen, but it's certainly a possibility. Bank owned homes are usually offered on the MLS, and a Realtor or other real estate licensee can assist you in purchasing one of these. Agents are not afraid of "working these" because they know that the bank needs and wants to close escrow - so there's a chance for a happy ending here (unlike with most short sales).
Whether you want to buy a distressed property in Silicon Valley or just want to know how these sales impact your home buying, home selling, or home value, the data is important for understanding how the real estate market is faring here. I'll continue to keep you updated in the coming weeks and months.
Best regards,
Mary
Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, RECS, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: "Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley"
877 397-5391 (Direct/Toll-Free/Fax); 408 204-7673 (Cell)
www.DelightHomes.com (PopeHandy.com)
emailto: Mary@PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com & www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com
For more posts on short sales and bank owned properties in Los Gatos (and nearby) please see:
http://www.realtown.com/LiveInLosGatos/blog/short-sales-and-bank-owned-homes
Feb. 24, 2008
Lately, in my practice as a Silicon Valley Realtor, I've been showing a lot of short sale houses and a few bank owned properties (known as REOs or "real estate owned" by the lender). They have been in entry level, single family homes close to $500,000 in Blossom Valley, Santa Teresa and south San Jose. In fact, the majority of homes that I've been showing there consists of distressed sales. Since that is the case, it is pulling prices down in those areas very dramatically. Homes bought two years ago for about $640,000 are now selling for about 80% of that recent sales price.
That's not happening in Los Gatos.
Yes, our prices are soft and inching down a bit, but not by 20%. If you own a home in any part of town, that should make you happy. If you are trying to buy a home in Los Gatos, that may not seem like good news at first, but actually it is - for the long haul. It's good that our values are more insulated than that.
There are a few pre-foreclosures here, a few going to auction, and a few that are bank owned. (Those are the three main stages.) Can a real estate agent, preferably a Realtor, help you to buy one of them?
It depends. If you are an investment buyer, and don't intend to live at the property you are purchasing, and the home is owner occupied, and a notice of default has been filed, the answer is no. This is a consumer protection situation, intended to keep a distressed homeowner from suffering at the hands of unscrupulous, wealthy buyers.
If you are planning to buy and live at the residence (a 1-4 place such as a duplex, triplex, fourplex, condo, townhome, patio home, or house), then an agent can assist you with either a pre-foreclosure purchase OR a bank owned sale. There is really no role for a Realtor in helping you buy at auction.
Let's talk about the three main stages:
(1) Pre-foreclosure: the homeowner is unable to continue making payments to the bank or lending institution. This may be due to illness, job loss, divorce, or other problems. The owner may or may not have had a "Notice of Default" filed. If the NOD has been filed, the clock is ticking and a "trustee" at the bank has begun foreclosure proceedings. If not, you only have to worry about the loss mitigation department. The two divisions may or may not be talking to each other, so it gets trickier after the NOD has been filed, (If there is a NOD, it is recorded and may show up on a preliminary title report or property profile.)
If a seller wants to sell during this time, a real estate agent can help by listing the home at a realistic price and procuring a buyer. Hopefully, the home can sell, the debt can be paid in full, and the owner's credit is not harmed.
Often sellers will contact an agent to sell the home, but sometimes they don't. For whatever reason, most owners in trouble never call the lender at all (big mistake, the lender could potentially wait for a few payments, called forbearance, or modify the loan, but without placing that call, it will surely go from bad to worse). But a large portion of sellers in trouble do list their homes and they can be found on the regular multiple listing service, or MLS.
Sometimes, sellers need to unload a property but the market will not bear enough to pay the bank off. That's what I've been running into in parts of San Jose. In those cases, the home goes on the market as a "short sale" and the agent tries to assist the owner in obtaining permission from the bank to sell and tranfer home without the bank being paid off in full. This is a short sale (and it does damage the seller's credit, but not as much as a foreclosure).
The vast majority of short sales do not go to closing, but proceed to foreclosure. The reasons are enough to fill a book, but sometimes because the homes are overpriced and sometimes because the bank does not respond fast enough. Some lending institutions are better than others. In one case I heard about recently, a listing agent obtained an offer just 1% below list price, but the lender took 3 months to respond. By that time, prices had dropped between 5 and 10% in that neighborhood, so the buyers no longer wished to pay the amount they originally offered. The list price was then dropped by about 8% and the agent had to obtain offers all over again. Who lost? The bank lost more than anyone else: a straight 10% cost for dawdling. (In fairness, they are massively understaffed and overworked. They are kicking themselves by not hiring more qualified people to stem the losses).
So a Realtor could help a buyer in this short sale scenario - to a degree. A buyers agent cannot make the bank hurry up and respond. The buyers agent cannot even talk to the bank. The listing agent may do so only after the seller has signed an authorization form. So there's some frustration and a sense of being out of control that goes with the territory.
Many listing agents don't know how to do short sales. I cut my teeth on a few in the early 90s and they weren't a lot of fun. But now there are huge numbers of them so it's a different game. In response to this crisis, a new business has emerged: short sale intermediaries. These folks have created a niche market of doing the go-between from the agent to the bank. They are the ones who stay on hold half the day, who specialize in knowing what the lenders need and require before someone actually verbalizes it. Because they specialize in this, their closing ratios are far higher (but still not guaranteed). (Call or email me if you would like more information on this.)
(2) Auction: if a home doesn't sell in pre-foreclosure or as a short sale, then the foreclosure process moves forward and the home will be offered for sale at auction. An agent can't help you here. If you wish to purchase a home at auction, realize that it will be offered at a price to cover all leins or debts, and it is often placed at a price the regular market will not bear. The auction situation presents special difficulties too. First, you cannot inspect it - you may look from the outside, but that is it. Second, unlike with the first or third scenarios (pre-foreclosure or bank owned), there is no contingency period in which you can change your mind and back out of the deal. Third, you need cash! And fourth, if you buy it and it is still occupied by the former owner or tenants, you will be responsible for the eviction process. For all these reasons, homes rarely sell at auction. They usually move on to REO, and are back on the market, placed on the multiple listing.
(3) Bank owned properties offer the opportunity to inspect but do not provide most disclosures since the bank is not a seller who's lived at the property. When a property is REO, an agent will handle it very much like a regular listing and it will be available to view. Banks are highly motivated to unload these properties but like any seller, will not go for an offer half the value of the property. Homes are virtually always sold "As Is".
If you are wanting to buy a home in Los Gatos, and you want the help of a real estate professional, that is possible with the short sale or preforeclosure situations, and it is possible with REOs too. There are not a lot of these distressed properties on the market here right now, but there are a few and some of them are quite nice and are listed on the MLS. There are pros and cons to buying at each stage, risks and benefits. If you attempt to purchase a short sale, realize that you may or may not be able to close - through no fault of your own. If you buy a bank owned home, you may not learn everything you'd have liked to know (for instance, if there was a death on the property, problems with neighbors etc.). And understand that a Realtor cannot help you at auction, or if you are an investment buyer trying to purchase an owner occupied home in which a notice of default has been filed.
Would you like to talk more about buying or selling your home? Please call or email me. I'm here to help.
Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, RECS, CNHS, ACRE
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993 - 15 Years Experience
Co-Author: "Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Siicon Valley"
Keller Williams, Cupertino, CA (Silicon Valley)
877 397-5391 (Direct/Toll-Free/Fax); 408 204-7673 (Cell)
www.PopeHandy.com www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com
Mary@PopeHandy.com
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