The Los Gatos real estate market is a moving target.  How's it today?  It depends on which part of the data you study.   Days on the market are longer, but prices are up, sales are up, and inventory is down.

Los Gatos Houses

Los Gatos homes sold and Los Gatos homes for sale:  first note that inventory is way down (from 200 a year ago to 134 now), the number of pending houses is up (from 11 to 51) and the medial sales price is up (though the average is down) year over year.  Are homes still slipping in value, or are they appreciating?  The answer to that question depends on a home's particular location, price point, school district, and other factors.  Some homes are still going down in value, but others are rising. The days on market are longer, from 32 DOM to 52.    A lot of indicators are "UP" but it's still not really easy to sell a Los Gatos home today. With 134 actives and just 25 solds, that's a 5.36 months supply of inventory - close to "balanced".  With 51 pendings vs 134 actives, it looks like the odds of selling are about 38% in any given month right now.

To see more data on the single family home sales for October, please see my RE Report for that part of the market.

Los Gatos Condominiums and Townhouses

The Los Gatos townhome and condominium real estate market is likewise better in many ways.  The number of sales is up year over year (9 to 11), pendings are up (5 to 18) and inventory is down from 48 to 37.  Days on the market are longer though, from 33 to 99. So again some mixed indicators.  There's a shift toward more of a sellers market with the months supply of inventory now at 3.36 months.  Condos and townhomes overall are selling much better than they were a year ago in terms of pricing (up substantially over a year ago, though down from last month).  Buyers are more willing to buy now, probably due to fantastic interest rates and perhaps also some of the great first time homebuyer perks such as the $8000 credit.

And to get more details on the Los Gatos condo market, please see my RE Report page with that data.

Let's take a look at the real estate market for Los Gatos condos and townhomes from a very high vantage point:  a two year overview. (Graphs created by me using Clarus Market Metrics, a subscription of my board and MLS.)

For the "really big picture", let's start with the "Supply & Demand by Month", going from August 2007 to August 2009. Green represents demand, and red represents supply.

As you can see, there's a big gap between available homes and how many are sought & purchased - so clearly this is a strong buyer's market.

Now let's turn to the absorption rate, or months supply of inventory.  Below is the chart for all of "area 16", which is Los Gatos/Monte Sereno (with a few homes in San Jose or Campbell along the border included - but by and large, it's Los Gatos).

The condo and townhome market has improved tremendously since the doom and gloom of last Decemeber (then nearly 22 months, today less than 5).

As I've mentioned in other posts, the market can vary a lot depending on zip code, price point, and school district.  This particular tool, the Clarus Market Metrics, does not use schools as a variable, unfortunately. But we can see what happens just with price point by breaking it down to home under and over $500,000.

Immediately below: absorption rate for Los Gatos homes priced UNDER $500,000 (condos & TH):

and next, months of inventory (absorption rate) of homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000:

Interestingly, the "sweet spot" of the Los Gatos condominium and townhome market is not in the least expensive condos and townhouses, but those between $500k and $1 mil.  (I should add that there are some condominiums and townhouses priced over a million, but not a lot and the data gets squirrelly due to the low numbers so I am not using them in this post).

This is curious because the lowest priced homes are usually the "hottest", but not here. Why?  I only have theories, but my thinking is this:

• the lowest priced condos are mostly either senior condos (along Alberto Way, the Los Gatos Commons) or very small units
• if seniors are hoping to downsize to move to a smaller place, they are probably electing to wait so that their home values "recover" some
• some people will elect to purchase a single family home in San Jose for $500,000, but perhaps others are buying a more expensive condo or townhouse to enjoy the benefit of the schools - so this would not be super tiny (more than 1 bedroom) since they are purchases for the schools

I may do more digging in the future to see what's causing this trend, but this is my hunch.  I welcome any comments from my readers on what they see happening with the condo market here in Los Gatos.

The Los Gatos real estate market has had a difficult year in 2008. Are things improving now, levelling off, or worsening?  What Los Gatos homeowners care about most is value: what's my home worth now? Today we will look at what list prices are doing among Los Gatos proerties for sale: both single family homes (houses) and condominums and townhomes in both the 95030 and 95032 zip codes.

The data, care of Altos Research, pretty much speaks for itself. The situation varies from one area to the next and one price point to the next. For more detailed information than is presented here, please contact me directly.

I. Broad Overview of Los Gatos homes for sale

 First let's see an overview of list prices for single family homes in Los Gatos by zip code (all price quartiles combined).

 Next, same type of data but for Los Gatos condominiums and townhomes for sale (both zip codes, median list price).

II. Closer look at houses for sale in Los Gatos

 Next we'll look more closely at single family homes by zip code and by price point or quartile.

Los Gatos houses in the 95030 zip code area by quartile:

Los Gatos houses in the 95032 zip code area by quartile:

III. Condominiums and Townhomes for Sale in Los Gatos

Next the list pricing for condos in 95030 by quartile

And finally, list prices of condos and townhouses for sale in the 95032 area by quartile

In summary, it looks as though condo prices have done fairly well overall. In 95030, they are up year over year across the board, and in 95032 they two top quartiles are up. The entry level condos in 95032 appear to have lost value year over year. The reason may be that buyers in these price points are purchasing single family homes outside of Los Gatos instead.

Among houses, the slippage in pricing is fairly slight in both zip codes among the three lower quartiles, but the market difficulties are much more pronounced among the most expensive homes in both of the Los Gatos areas. The Los Gatos luxury market has taken more of a beating than more midrange homes this year? Why is that? There are a number of possibilities, but the bottom line is that if you are a luxury home buyer looking in the west side of Silicon Valley, this may be a great opportunity for you! 

Please call or email me if you'd like more information on Los Gatos real estate market conditions.

How's the Los Gatos Real Estate Market Faring?

There are many ways of viewing the Los Gatos real estate market. One approach includes looking at the homes which are currently for sale, or the "active listings". Altos Research, to which I subscribe, uses this data in analyzing the state of things for the realty market in various cities, towns, and zip codes. Today we'll look at these active listings in all Los Gatos zip codes, both single family homes and condominiums, and view the data by price quartile whenever the trends seem quite divergent from one price point to the next.

Los Gatos Real Estate Pricing for Single Family Homes by Zip Code

First, let's look at Los Gatos houses in the 95030 area. We'll begin by viewing list prices by quartile.

Except for the highest priced homes, it seems that asking prices are close to flat in this part of Los Gatos. It doesn't appear to be a market crash when these numbers are viewed.

Next, let's see how prices are looking in 95032 among single family homes in Los Gatos:

Again, it's fairly close to flat pricing now (after clear declines earlier this year) except in the most expensive homes, which really constitute the luxury or estate market, which looks to be having steeper declines. The luxury market in both 95032 and 95030 appears to be hurting the most.

And finally, the same type of data but for the Los Gatos Mountains (zip code 95033 - this is a broad area which is not actually in the Town of Los Gatos but instead is county area).

Interestingly, the luxury homes in the mountains seem to be holding their own better than those "in town". It appears that all price points in the mountains are doing approximately the same in this realm.

Los Gatos Real Estate Pricing for Condos and Townhomes by Zip Code

The Silicon Valley condominium and townhouse market is often a little different than the market for single family homes, and this is true in Los Gatos as well as in much of San Jose.  Below, please note the more chaotic path that pricing has taken in the Los Gatos condo market this year:

And oddly, much different in 95032:

Although these two Los Gatos zip codes are quite different from each other, both have been seeing some rises from a low spot earlier this year. The 95030 prices are higher than they were at the beginning of the year in all quartiles. The 95032 prices are higher for the most expensive condos but lower for the bottom two quartiles. I believe that this is because of school districts - the lowest priced condos (except for The Commons, a senior condominium complex) are most all in the Campbell Union High School District rather than in the Los Gatos - Saratoga High School District.  (All of 95030 is in the Los Gatos schools area, and perhaps half of 95032 is in the same district and half is in CUHSD instead.)

Inventory of Los Gatos Homes for Sale

Inventory of Los Gatos homes has been rising in most segments of the market. (There are no townhouses or condominiums in the 95033 zip code.)

The lowest priced condos in the 95030 part of Los Gatos seem to be getting absorbed decently - inventory has barely risen there at all this year.

Days on Market for Los Gatos Homes for Sale - All Zip Codes

Los Gatos Houses in 95030:

Los Gatos Houses in 95032 are seeing declines in the average days on market:

And for condos and townhomes in Los Gatos, 95030, it looks bizarre, with lots of volatility and large ups and downs (not unlike the stock market of late):

Lastly, Los Gatos days on market for condos in 95032:

So what can we say of the general trends in Los Gatos homes for sale? For most Los Gatos homes:

• inventory is rising
• days on market are rising
• the condo market was faring worse earlier this year, but is improving now
• the single family home market has been sliding this year, but overall, it has not been steep

How does this compare to nearby areas? The "median market action index" combines the key factors to come up with a market pulse (higher is in the sellers favor, and lower is in the buyers favor).  If we look at just single family homes in the two Los Gatos areas  plus Saratoga (95070) and the Almaden Valley area of San Jose (95120), it looks like "we're all in the same boat":

The two Los Gatos zip codes are now in the same place. San Jose is doing a little better and Saratoga better still.  But the general trends for almost all nearby Silicon Valley real estate markets is a deepening buyers market.

Please call or email me if you'd like to discuss your particular situation.

How is the Los Gatos real estate market doing?

For many homesellers in Los Gatos (and Silicon Valley generally), and for their Realtors, the real estate market is extremely challenging right now. Buyers have been wary for many months already, but now they're concerned about a recession and job losses, not just the possibility of a real estate sales price that won't hold its value later. It is a deepening buyers market overall, but especially within the market for single family homes.

So what is happening with Los Gatos home sales?

Inventory is rising among single family homes and condos and townhomes. Right now there are 197 single family homes for sale (it was over 200 last week) and 44 condominiums or townhomes. A year ago, it was 113 houses and 23 condos. A month ago it was 184 SFH and 45 condos, and a year ago October it was 104 SFH and 22 condos.

Sales were down in October. We had a surge of sales in September, but then the meltdown on Wall Street happened and buyers put on the brakes. In Oct 2007 there were 12 condos closed, but in Oct 2008 just 9 (and with far more inventory).  In Oct 2007 there were 17 houses closed, but in Oct 2008 just 13 (and again, more inventory).

The real estate market in Los Gatos is mixed, depending on the type of housing (house, townhouse, mulit family dwelling, mobile home or other), the price point (entry level vs luxury), zip code, school district, and more. Of the 13 homes that closed last month, 3 were over $3 million. Surprisingly, 5 were under $1 million. Most often, the vast majority of sales is between $1 million and $2 mil or $2,5 mil, but the middle seems to be shrinking now. It's a strange phenomena! Low priced homes are being bought because, I believe, buyers can "get into Los Gatos" at great prices. The luxury home market is often independent of financing, so those homes are still selling fairly well (despite the loss of stock value in Google and Apple) for now. The middle price range, which often represents move-up buyers who do need at least some financing, appears to be the most impacted market right now.

 

Condos vs Houses: Which Are Selling Better in Los Gatos?

The Los Gatos condo market, which was really struggling earlier this year, has been improving since May. The Los Gatos single family home market, though, is the opposite: it has been worsening steadily since May. The condo market is very small compared to the single family home market, though, so the overall picture is a deepening of the buyers market in Los Gatos.

Below, please find a bar graph that makes these trends clear:  

The Los Gatos real estate market is made up of many micromarkets. For information on your particular home buying or home selling needs in Los Gatos, please contact me today.