Los Gatos, California
Los Gatos real estate, neighborhoods, condos, houses, homes, market trends, history, events, lifestyle, parks, events, businesses, home, Mary Pope-Handy
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Jul. 12, 2008
The Los Gatos real estate market is composed of many micro-markets in housing type, location, price point and condition. A Los Gatos condo in one school district may be in an entirely different type of market than an estate home with a view of the Santa Clara Valley or a golf course, of course.
Overall, though, the market here in Los Gatos is healthier than in many other areas within Silicon Valley. One one of measuring the health of the housing market is to follow the absorption rate. The absorption rate reflects the amount of time it would take for the current inventory of homes for sale to be bought up if no new homes came on the market and sales continued at their current pace. It can be days of inventory, weeks of inventory, or months of inventory tracked.
The National Association of Realtors uses 6 months of inventory as the tipping point between the market favoring buyers vs sellers. Under 6 months' inventory is said to be a sellers' market, and over 6 months is said to be a buyers' market. In the San Jose area, though, we are behind on housing starts and are used to homes selling fairly quickly, so most sellers will not feel as though 4, 5, or nearly 6 months' of inventory is really a market in their favor. They expect to sell in a few weeks, not a few months.
Here's a graph I did of the months of inventory in the Los Gatos real estate market for the first half of 2008 (in green) and also, for comparison's sake, the first half of 2007:
As you can see, the market was worse for buyers (better for sellers) in the same timeframe in 2007 as it is now. Since the months of inventory is a ratio of that month's closed sales to its active inventory, this data really reflects the month or so prior in terms of when purchase agreements were signed and accepted. So looking at the numbers in April really shows you what was happening appx 30 days earlier (most of our escrows are about 30 days long). In 2008, then, May and June were much better than the 4 months prior, and they reflect contracts written in April and May. June 2008 wasn't bad compared to earlier in the year, but clearly, the peak of the market was April because May's closings were the best.
Other data supports this too. I have a subscription to the Real Estate Report and the numbers there suggest that the highest median and average sales prices for single family homes peaked in April too (go to the page for Los Gatos and view the graphs).
Much of 2008 has been off in terms of the usual sales patterns but most years, the peak of the market is somewhere around March or April. At that point, prices frequently hit their high point of the year - great for sellers, not so great for buyers. By summer, the market cools down most years and sellers may be frustrated that they are not seeing the prices from a couple of months earlier in the year. For buyers, though, summer can be ideal since inventory is good and sales are a little lower.
No one can predict if the market will go one way or the other, but I would say that buyers are in a good position now if they want to get into a nice Los Gatos home. The loan situation has calmed down and market conditions are favorable for most segments of the Los Gatos real estate market and there's a nice selection now. My advice to Los Gatos home buyers is simple: don't wait!
Jun. 8, 2008
One of the benchmarks realty professionals use in determining the answer to the ever-present question of "how's the market?" is the absorption rate, or months (or days or weeks) of inventory. The question is this: if no new inventory were to come on the market, how long would it take for the current number of listings to be absorbed by buyers?
A look at the single family home situation in the town of Los Gatos reveals an improvement over recent months. Is it possible that we're near the bottom of the market? Maybe.
This graph presents broad strokes in a market comprised of many micro-markets. What is happening in Blossom Manor may not be the same thing happening in the Edelen District or what's going up in the Aztec or Maya areas, in the Sierra Azule section of town or Belwood or Bicknell Road areas. The home offered at $950,000 in the Union School District is not really "the same market" as one worth $2 million with Los Gatos schools - there are nuances that can totally change the picture!
For more information on the overall Los Gatos real estate or the market in other Silicon Valley areas such as Saratoga, Campbell, San Jose, or the many districts within San Jose such as Cambrian Park, Almaden Valley and Willow Glen, please visit my Real Estate Report online. From there you can get market statistics and trends as well as an analysis of your own home or another in the area.
To learn about your own home or area, please contact me. Or if you'd like a complimentary market analysis, request one from me at www.SiliconValleyHomeValue.com or simply call or email me with the details of your home. Please allow 24-48 hours for me to run the numbers for you.
Feb. 20, 2007
View From Los Gatos
To the left is a photo I took a few weeks back from the far edge of Los Gatos - up on Harwood Road (where you aren't allowed to park your car so this shot was taken from the window of my automobile). That's downtown San Jose in the distance. Behind me are the Santa Cruz Mountains, aka the Coastal Range. Across from me, beyond downtown San Jose, you see the eastern foothills. Beyond them, at some distance, is the Central Valley. This valley was once known as "The Valley of the Heart's Delight". Los Gatos lies at the base of the Santa Cruz Mountains and is a town you'd need to pass through to get to Santa Cruz and the beach. It s a vibrant part of life in SIlicon Valley, though it has only a little industry (Netflix being the biggest company here). Most homes don't have a great view like this - my home is at the bottom of this hill, in the flatlands. From one bedroom, we have a view of the hill. And that's pretty too.
So how's the market in this very scenic corner of the valley? Well, it depends on your price point. For Los Gatos, the most affordable (i.e., really middle class) housing is going fast. Inventory is low. In fact, in January there were 100 homes for sale (not a lot) and as of this moment, there are just 89. We have 36 homes "pending". Most of these are not at the high end of the spectrum. Prices in our fair town (not a city, but a town - just to be clear) range from a low of $799,000 to over $15 million for single family homes. By and large, the homes under $1.5 million are flying off the market. But there just aren't that many buyers for homes over $10 million.
In my own neighborhood, Belwood of Los Gatos, there are about 500 homes and last year about 10 of them sold. This is an exceptionally low-turnover neighborhood. Prices in 2006 averaged about $1,230,000 for a home with about 2400 square feet. Right now there's exactly one home for sale, it's not far from the average size but it's listed at $1,380,000. Will it sell for that much? I have no idea. If it does sell close to that price, we will know that prices are rising again. I cannot wait to see this home myself - naturally I want my home to appreciate in value (that is, until I think about my kids hopefully being in the housing market themselves in 10 years...then I hope it just climbs very, very slowly). You can check out the housing situation in Belwood by visiting my site, www.BelwoodOfLosGatos.com and clicking on the "Homes Info" button, or navigate there directly by using this link: http://www.belwoodoflosgatos.com/more/index.cfm?Fuseaction=more_11917
Historical information for recent years is on the following page, which you can reach at the top of the Homes Info page.
So how's the market? If you are the owner of a high end home and you need to sell, you will say it's awful. If you own a nicely updated, well priced middle class home, you would say it's a market that is great for sellers and a little rough on buyers. If your home is not in great shape or is not priced in the bottom third of its competition, you might be convinced it's a terribly strong buyer's market. Truth is, it is close to balanced for most homes. It can be a win-win market, but everyone has to be realistic and be prepared to do a little work. But that would be true for most worthwhile things in life: they tend to need a dose of realism and some effort.
Jan. 16, 2007
Los Gatos Annual Real Estate Trends
| SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES |
% Change from Year Before |
| Area |
Year |
Sales |
Median Price |
Average Price |
DOM |
New Listings |
Sales |
Median Price |
Average Price |
New Listings |
| LG |
1998 |
376 |
$660,000 |
$735,738 |
55 |
687 |
|
|
|
|
| LG |
1999 |
391 |
$730,000 |
$863,248 |
66 |
575 |
4.0% |
10.6% |
17.3% |
-16.3% |
| LG |
2000 |
337 |
$925,000 |
$1,157,133 |
40 |
538 |
-13.8% |
26.7% |
34.0% |
-6.4% |
| LG |
2001 |
232 |
$925,000 |
$1,164,241 |
65 |
731 |
-31.2% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
35.9% |
| LG |
2002 |
309 |
$955,000 |
$1,096,678 |
71 |
706 |
33.2% |
3.2% |
-5.8% |
-3.4% |
| LG |
2003 |
310 |
$970,000 |
$1,113,078 |
90 |
717 |
0.3% |
1.6% |
1.5% |
1.6% |
| LG |
2004 |
466 |
$1,165,000 |
$1,294,057 |
61 |
905 |
50.3% |
20.1% |
16.3% |
26.2% |
| LG |
2005 |
413 |
$1,251,000 |
$1,366,305 |
56 |
823 |
-11.4% |
7.4% |
5.6% |
-9.1% |
| LG |
2006 |
299 |
$1,359,000 |
$1,504,811 |
57 |
662 |
-27.6% |
8.6% |
10.1% |
-19.6% |
Nov. 26, 2006
| CONDOS |
% Change from Year Before |
| Area |
Year |
Sales |
Median Price |
Average Price |
DOM |
New Listings |
Sales |
Median Price |
Average Price |
New Listings |
| LG |
1997 |
120 |
$307,500 |
$331,610 |
38 |
172 |
|
|
|
|
| LG |
1998 |
141 |
$369,500 |
$371,263 |
38 |
202 |
17.5% |
20.2% |
12.0% |
17.4% |
| LG |
1999 |
139 |
$415,000 |
$401,278 |
41 |
185 |
-1.4% |
12.3% |
8.1% |
-8.4% |
| LG |
2000 |
142 |
$549,500 |
$546,117 |
27 |
168 |
2.2% |
32.4% |
36.1% |
-9.2% |
| LG |
2001 |
87 |
$487,500 |
$508,365 |
63 |
243 |
-38.7% |
-11.3% |
-6.9% |
44.6% |
| LG |
2002 |
148 |
$507,500 |
$532,005 |
65 |
280 |
70.1% |
4.1% |
4.7% |
15.2% |
| LG |
2003 |
159 |
$529,000 |
$531,194 |
90 |
277 |
7.4% |
4.2% |
-0.2% |
-1.1% |
| LG |
2004 |
169 |
$563,000 |
$590,146 |
41 |
248 |
6.3% |
6.4% |
11.1% |
-10.5% |
| LG |
2005 |
163 |
$650,000 |
$670,409 |
36 |
222 |
-3.6% |
15.5% |
13.6% |
-10.5% |
DEFINITIONS
- Med. Price
- Median Price is that at which 50% of properties sold were above that price and 50% were below.
- Ave. Price
- Average Price is the sum of all prices divided by the number of sales.
- Ave. DOM
- Average Days on Market is the average time it took to sell all properties.
- Newly Listed
- How many properties came on the market in the given time period.
Info by Rick Campbell of The RE Report (a subscription I have)
Mary Pope-Handy, Realtor, CRS, ABR, e-PRO, SRES, ASP, RECS, CNHS
Helping Nice Folks to Buy & Sell Homes Since 1993
Co-Author: "Get The Best Deal When Selling Your Home In Silicon Valley"
Intero Real Estate Services, Los Gatos, CA (Silicon Valley)
408 357-5760 (Direct); 408 204-7673 (Cell); 408 715-0201 (eFax)
www.PopeHandy.com www.ValleyOfHeartsDelight.com
emailto: Mary@PopeHandy.com
Blog: www.LiveInLosGatos.com
Nov. 26, 2006
Los Gatos Annual Real Estate Trends
| SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES |
% Change from Year Before |
| Area |
Year |
Sales |
Median Price |
Average Price |
DOM |
New Listings |
Sales |
Median Price |
Average Price |
New Listings |
| LG |
1997 |
359 |
$550,000 |
$641,487 |
66 |
611 |
|
|
|
|
| LG |
1998 |
376 |
$660,000 |
$735,738 |
55 |
687 |
4.7% |
20.0% |
14.7% |
12.4% |
| LG |
1999 |
391 |
$730,000 |
$863,248 |
66 |
575 |
4.0% |
10.6% |
17.3% |
-16.3% |
| LG |
2000 |
337 |
$925,000 |
$1,157,133 |
40 |
538 |
-13.8% |
26.7% |
34.0% |
-6.4% |
| LG |
2001 |
232 |
$925,000 |
$1,164,241 |
65 |
731 |
-31.2% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
35.9% |
| LG |
2002 |
309 |
$955,000 |
$1,096,678 |
71 |
706 |
33.2% |
3.2% |
-5.8% |
-3.4% |
| LG |
2003 |
310 |
$970,000 |
$1,113,078 |
90 |
717 |
0.3% |
1.6% |
1.5% |
1.6% |
| LG |
2004 |
466 |
$1,165,000 |
$1,294,057 |
61 |
905 |
50.3% |
20.1% |
16.3% |
26.2% |
| LG |
2005 |
413 |
$1,251,000 |
$1,366,305 |
56 |
823 |
-11.4% |
7.4% |
5.6% |
-9.1% |
DEFINITIONS
- Med. Price
- Median Price is that at which 50% of properties sold were above that price and 50% were below.
- Ave. Price
- Average Price is the sum of all prices divided by the number of sales.
- Ave. DOM
- Average Days on Market is the average time it took to sell all properties.
- Newly Listed
- How many properties came on the market in the given time period.
Info by Rick Campbell of The RE Report (a subscription I have)
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