Halloween Events In and Near Los Gatos in 2009

Halloween is fast approaching, but there are still a few more events in and near Los Gatos to get you into the spirit!

At Oak Meadow Park, once again the Los Gatos Chamber of Commerce is putting on the Haunted Halloween Forest and Goblyn's Glen (to benefit the Billy Jones Wildcat Railroad and more). For tickets and more information, please call 408-395-7433 or visit Website.  Next two events are Friday and Saturday of this week, from 7 - 10pm.

There are many, many more Halloween events the rest of this week posted on Craigslist. If you click on the link below, it will take you to an extensive collection of Halloween events in Siicon Valley.  Scroll down to

October 26 - 31
 

South Bay:

and there you'll find 22 items listed in San Jose, Saratoga, Sunnyvale, Los Altos and all over the south bay.

Happy Halloween!



 

Los Gatos Condos For Sale: How's the Market?

If you are thinking of buying or selling a Los Gatos condo or townhouse, it's helpful to know what the market's doing - that is, what are the Los Gatos real estate trends and statistics for the condo market. 

Today we'll have a look at the Los Gatos condo market in terms of pricing, inventory, and days on market.  We will study Los Gatos as a whole and broken out by zip code,  and also by price quartile too.  The data below is via Altos Research, to which I am a subscriber & so I have the right to use the charts & graphs here. (Note: Altos Research uses list prices, not sold prices.) The charts I'm uploading will automatically update, so if you pull up this post long after it's been written, the charts will still be "live" and should be accurate.

First, the pricing trends for condos and townhomes in 95030 and 95032 combined (so all of Los Gatos together) over the last year, and separated by quartile:

 

Generally, it's been a year of some increases but overall decreases in list prices year over year (as of late October 2009).

Following, the two zip codes separated, but the quartiles combined:

 

Interestingly, the 95030 part of Los Gatos was dropping this time last year (10-2008) while the 95032 market was mostly improving.  I suspect that this is due to the cost of living: 95032 is simply less expensive.

Getting more specific:  now see Los Gatos 95030 condos and townhomes, broken out by price quartile:

 

Fascinating to see what happened with the group that had been the second quartile and ended up at the bottom!  The deepest decines in value (or pricing)  have come in the highest price ranges.  This is true in Saratoga and other high-end markets around Silicon Valley and in parts of San Jose (such as Almaden Valley) too.

Same pricing info but for Los Gatos 95032:


The 95032 patterns seemed to follow a more understandable path than 95030.

Next, inventory - the available townhouses and condominiums to buy in Los Gatos (both zips combined)over the last 12 months:

Inventory for 95030:



And inventory for 95032:

 

Now, we'll look at the average Days on Market. Things are really interesting here as we view all of Los Gatos by quartile.:

And again, we'll drill down to the zip code & quartile view of the Los Gatos condo and townhome market as we consider the average days on market:



 In the 95030 part of Los Gatos, interestingly, the least expensive condos are taking the longest to sell.  Why might that be the case? Here's my hunch:  most of this zip code is "in the schools" (enjoying Blossom Hill Elementary, Van Meter Elementry, or Daves Avenue School as well as Fisher Middle School and Los Gatos High). The least expensive homes often fall into one of two categories: seniors housing (Alberto Way, the Los Gatos Commons) or small, entry level condos with only one bedroom.  Neither of these would require the highly regarded Los Gatos Schools. 

Conversely, in the 95032 part of town, it's the most expensive townhomes and condos that are taking the longest to sell. A possible reason is that people who can afford a high end condo can also afford a single family home - and right now, the houses have come down so much in price that they are not as out of reach as they were in the past. Most likely, homebuyers are preferring to buy a house (perhaps in Cambrian Park or Willow Glen) rather than a costly condo.

Even more data:

I just ran a little more info off of MLSListings.com, our MLS provider here in the San Jose area, and see that in Los Gatos (both zip codes) 26 condos and townhomes sold & closed in the last month, and there are 132 available today.  That means there are  5 months of inventory, which is just a little into the seller's market territory.

95030 -  51 available, 6 sold in last month = 8.5 months of inventory - av sales price = $1,301,667

95032 -  81 available, 20 sold in last month = 4.05 months of inventory - av sales pr = $1,068,360

Very very interesting that it's approximately twice as easy to sell a condo in 95032 than in 95030. In most of Santa Clara County, the most affordable homes are the ones selling the best.  That general trend appears to be in full swing here in Los Gatos among the townhouse and condo market too.

If you'd like to sell or buy a Los Gatos condo or townhouse, please contact me.  I'd be happy to have a confidential, no obligation conversation with you about your wants, needs and plans.

Although it can be a bit of a challenge to sell a condominium or townhome in Los Gatos, it's not impossible if the pricing, staging, and marketing are all correct.  

What Is Autumn Weather Like in Los Gatos?

What can you expect, weatherwise, for Los Gatos in the fall?  It varies but generally is dry and fairly warm during the days.  Mornings can be chilly but it heats up fairly quickly.  This last week was perhaps a bit unusual, but I'll share with you a bit about the weather here over the last seven days.

This last week, though, we caught the tail end of an Asian hurricane and we got drenched and pelted with strong winds.  After three drought years, no one is complaining: we needed the rain.

The storm caused damage to trees all over and created power outages for many.  Our block in Belwood was mixed - half the homes were out of power for about 48 hours. We were lucky and had power. As usual, though, after a very heavy rain, we had Comcast problems.  Our internet flickered off and on for a couple of days (a challenge for Jim and me since we both work from home and rely heavily on the web).

The temps rose in the days following the storm.  It's not completely abnormal to have an 80 degree day in October, but it is unusual to have a summer like temp with east-coast like humidity. The ground was saturated and as it evaporated, we had several muggy days. 

We got back to the daily walk with Bella through the neighborhood and to Belgatos Park and that's when we learned that so many neighbors were without electricity.  We saw a few trees that were getting extra supports (or should have, as they were now listing badly) but others which seemed just fine.

Many of the smaller plants and bushes fared much better than the larger trees had. To see the blooms along Westhill Drive, you'd never know that a massive storm had passed just 48 hours earlier.

Mike's prickley pear looked just great.

Everyone's got power again and aside from a few downed limbs, the neighborhood is looking back to normal. As usual for fall, Los Gatos is full of people who are jogging, riding bikes, pushing strollers, walking dogs, or just getting out.  Today was into the 70s - a very normal fall temp - and except for a few clouds that have been coming and going, it's again looking like autumn as usual.

Westhill Drive was cordoned off for a block party, too.

This is not surprising: our mild weather makes doing things outdoors be the norm throughout most of the fall.   We enjoy an average of 300 sunny days per year in Silicon Valley, with mild weather being the hallmark.  Rain normally comes from about December until March or April, but even then it's not usually so bad unless we have a once-in-a-decade El Nino year.   Word has it that we might be in for that this year, which would certain end, officially, the drought.  It's supposed to rain again tomorrow.  No one likes water rationing, so we will view it as a gift!

Lowest Priced Homes Remain the "Best Sellers" in Los Gatos

As readers of this blog know, Los Gatos is full of micro-markets, and that can make generalizations about how the "Los Gatos real estate market" is doing a bit skewed.  So whatever you read online, or hear about in your neighborhood or from friends, do take with a grain of salt since your home may or not be similar to whatever other home you're hearing about in terms of how it might sell (or if you're a buyer, the home you may want to purchase may be different....).

Disclaimer aside, I did a few minutes of data-collecting on MLSListings just now for single family homes (houses or attached/duet homes, but not condos or townhomes) in the town of Los Gatos (not Monte Sereno, but LG with zip codes 95032 and 95030).  It appears that the general trend continues: the most affordable Los Gatos homes, generally, are selling fairly well. 

What I did was run the numbers (agents: using the "preview" button on REIL), then simply added two other criteria: high school district (Saratoga-Los Gatos High School District and Campbell Union High School District) and then list price of up to $1.5 million. Then I figured out the absorption rate, or the months of inventory (MOI).  The solds are homes which have closed in the last month.

Where the MOI is greater than 6, it is a buyer's market, and where it's under 6 it is a seller's market - six months is considered a "balanced" market.

So, looking at the first set, for Los Gatos overall the absorption rate is 5.6 months - or very close to a balanced market.  But we know that some areas and price points are selling much slower than others.  Surprisingly, when all of Los Gatos with "the schools" are considered, the MOI is 7.7.  Given that it feels like entry level homes in that part of town feel like they're flying off the market, this doesn't sound right. So look at the second group of numbers, where the price range is limited to those under 1.5 million.  We can see that there are only 39 such homes for sale now (vs 101 for all price points) and the MOI is a brisk 3.55. That makes sense.  So what's slower are the more expensive homes, generally.  Entry level homes in the schools are selling at a healthy pace.

Interestingly, homes in the Campbell Union High School District are faring even better - and the data is inverted, slightly, as to where the sweeter spot of the market lies.  For these homes, those under 1.5 mil are going at a quick 2.4 months of inventory.  The market as a whole for Los Gatos houses for sale in this area is lower still, though - 2.23. That demonstrates that the market is even faster in the higher priced homes.  My belief is that this is the case because those homes - high end homes in the CUHSD - have taken a bigger hit on pricing and buyers are responding.  Cannot prove it in this brief blog post entry, though, but that's my (hopefully educated) hunch. 

What about your neighborhood, or where you'd like to buy?  Get hyper local when you think about how "the market" is.  Feel free to visit my Los Gatos Real Estate Report and see local sales in your neighborhood. Make it more precise by indating the beds/baths you want to consider, and how far out (in a radius) you'd like to see the comps, or how far back in time. Best part: you don't have to register, you don't have to leave a footprint.    (Your search is not saved on my site, so I will not be showing up on your front porch!)  Or call or email me for a confidential, no obligation, no-pressure consultation.

St Mary's Country Fair Is On! Oct 9 - 11, 2009

The St. Mary's Country Fair in downtown Los Gatos is back through Sunday the 11th at 5pm. 

This year the fair is a little more kid-centric and there are more inflated play structures.  Things are not all where they were in the past, but the best of the best is all still there: great food, live entertainment, games, rides, and goods to purchase. (Jim and I just got back in from enjoying supper and a 2.5 hour stint overseeing the Obstacle Course - part playhouse, part inflated balloon attraction). 

Everyone's welcome. The fair's proceeds are split between the school and the parish, and helps to support outreach work in the community too. Please stop on by!  The fair can be accessed off of West Main Street and Lyndon Avenue or off of Bean Avenue near Tait.   There's no entry fee!

Los Gatos Real Estate List Prices and Inventory by Zip Code & Price Quartile

It's early October - many years, we experience an influx of inventory in Los Gatos homes for sale at about this time (between Labor Day and Halloween). Not this year, though.  It seems that the uptick in available homes for sale mostly happens in years where it's a seller's market.  The Los Gatos & Monte Sereno real estate market, especially in the 95030 zip code, where prices continue to fall, has not been a seller's market in most price ranges recently.  It appears that many homeowners are holding onto their homes for now - probably until the market recovers. My buyers are noticing the lack of inventory too.

(On a side note: I do have buyers looking for a turnkey Los Gatos home with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and a less than 10,000 sf lot for up to 1.5 million. Nothing currently on the market is a fit for them - if you have a home that might work, or know of one not currently on the market, please let me know. Either zip code or school area is OK.)

Today we'll have a look at the list prices and inventory for two zip codes, which combined generally make up the area included in the Town of Los Gatos and also the City of Monte Sereno: 95030 and 95032. 95030 is Los Gatos and also Monte Sereno. (There are some funky exceptions: one area with the 95032 zip code out by Pollard and Quito actually belongs to Campbell but has a Los Gatos address for postal reasons. Another area near National and Carlton along the Cambrian border has a San Jose, 95124 mailing address but is actually Los Gatos - same thing, for postal reasons the mailing address is off.)

Another caveat - and a big one - is that today's study does not include a breakdown by school district. This can be a leading indicator of how your particular neighborhood might be faring.  Altos does not use this criteria so I can't factor it in with this study.  On August 24th, I did a post on my Valley of Hearts Delight blog on the Los Gatos Real Estate Market that did include the school district information.  This is great data but takes many hours to assemble, so it's not something I can provide often. But have a look there too - many of the trends are unchanged, even if the exact numbers are different:

The charts below were created by me with Altos Research, to which I have a subscription and the right to publish the charts. Altos uses LIST PRICES in its data fyi.

List prices with both zip codes combined, market separated out by quartile over the last 6 months:

Just 95030 - closer to downtown, usually, than most of 95032, and almost 100% "in the schools", this is a more expensive place to live than 95032:

Now just 95032:

Now inventory - the upper cluster of quartiles is 95032, the lower one is 95030:

Combining quartiles is a little easier (a quartile is 25% of the market so of course the four tiers will always be about the name in number as each other).

What's interesting is that although the 95030 zip code is usually more in demand (due to downtown Los Gatos proximity and the famed schools), those more expensive homes have not been getting scooped up by the market quite as fast as the homes in 95032. The latter are more affordable - and affordability is key in most price points. The days on market for Los Gatos homes for sale by zip code and quartile:

Altos provides a "median market action index" (greater than 30 is a sellers market)  that is quite interesting - note the huge difference:
 

Next, by zip code and price quartile.  95030 is "all over the board, with some parts trending downward and others moving upward...

Now for Los Gatos 95032, which seems to be behaving more as a unified group than 95030:

In most of the 95032 price points, the market's been improving. It's still a buyer's market, but until August or September, it was improving steadily.

How's the market? Really needs to be, "how's your specific market?"  The lowest price points in 95030 are selling well - which has been the case for months. The most expensive homes in 95030 are lagging the most - which has also been the trend.  The less expensive homes in 95032 are faring better overall. If we were to break 95032 down by school district (as I did in the post referenced above), we'd find that the homes selling the best are the ones with Los Gatos Schools (not Moreland or Union). 

For information on your particular corner of the Los Gatos real estate market or the Monte Sereno real estate market, please contact me. I'd be happy to chat with you - no obligation.

Full Spectrum Jazz Performs Monthly at the Los Gatos Lodge

Once a month or so, the highly talented band,  Full Spectrum Jazz, performs at the Los Gatos Lodge. Over the summer they played at Jazz on the Plazz in Los Gatos, so you may be familiar with them already.  This is a local group, and a few members are even residents of the town of Los Gatos. Their next performance there will be in the evening of October 15th (please check the schedules online at the band's website and the Lodge's website).

Full Spectrum Jazz plays a variety of jazz styles, and at times also employ a vocalist. When we were there in mid-September, Duane Lawrence joined them for part of each set. Duane has a beautiful voice & is an enthusiastic singer - the two complimented each other very well.

Below are some photos I took in mid-September. Unfortunately the lighting was such that members to the far left and far right were not too well illuminated, so my apologies that a number of band members and Duane Lawrence are not in these pics (they just didn't turn out).  Come check them out for yourself two weeks from now!  (There's no cover charge and drinks & munchies are reasonably priced.)

The Los Gatos Lodge is located at 50 Los Gatos - Saratoga Road, Los Gatos, California.  (Los Gatos-Saratoga Road is also known as Highway 9)  It is just east of Highway 17, between the freeway and Los Gatos Boulevard.  There's plenty of parking too.