Merry Christmas, Los Gatos...and everyone else too!

It's been a little busy for blogging lately but I didn't want the holiday season to go by without sending my warmest wishes to my friends and readers.  Many of our friends celebrate Hanukkah - and I hope it was a happy one for each and every one of them. What a beautiful festival, a true festival of lights.

We celebrate Christmas in our home, and the days leading up to it can be a bit hectic for us, as they are for many of you. (On top of that, this blogger was sick for about 10 days and also changed brokerages mid-month. So lots was going on!) It can be hard to catch your breath and think about the deeper meanings to all of it. . . .

But now, it's Christmas Eve. Everything is really done. Life is quieting down at the Handy household in Belwood, and we get to just enjoy the next couple of days and reflect on why they are so important to us. If you celebrate Christmas, I hope that for you these days will be meaningful, peaceful and fun. Merry Christmas!  (And if not, I hope the days will bring helpful R & R for you, and a chance to visit friends or get in some skiing or other fun.)

And for everyone...Happy New Year! 

2007 was challenging for those of us in real estate and related fields. Too many people lost their jobs or were harmed by a difficult market this last year (a story that I think was underreported). We are hopeful that 2008 will be stable and maybe even improved here in Silicon Valley. Hope is an important part of this season for all of us, no matter what we celebrate specifically.

May the coming year bring you happiness, good health, a sunny disposition, and many, many blessings. And above all, may it bring you a deep and joyful sense of hope.

Santa Claus is coming to The Town of Los Gatos

The Condo Market in Los Gatos - How Is It?

The Condo and Townhome market in Los Gatos is a mixed bag. Values are holding and appear to even be rising slightly, the "days on market" are short (a mere 14 days in November), and the list price to sales price ratio is amazing at over 101%. But just as with single family homes, the number of sales is way down.

Is this seasonal or is it "the market"?

One way to check against a seasonal fluctuation is to look at all recent Novembers and see how this one compares. Let's have a look:

As you can see, the 5 closings in November is the least number of sales over the last decade. Sales are way, way off. And, like with single family homes viewed the same way (see yesterday's post), it's about half of what's average.

If we look at the months of inventory, or the absorption rate, does it look any better?

The condo market remains under 6 months of inventory, which is the point at which the National Association of Realtors would say it moves from being a sellers' market to a buyers' market. These numbers are much better than those for the single family home market in Los Gatos (which had 8.79 months of inventory for November - and those numbers appear to be rising steadily, wheras these numbers are up and down so they appear less predictable).

As of today, there are 5 pending condos or townhouses in Los Gatos (zip codes 95030 and 95032) and a total inventory of 26 available townhomes or condominiums in town. So approximately 20% of the homes on the market are selling. Those that do sell, sell fast and apparently for a great ratio.

But that leaves 80% of the homes that aren't selling at all. So all the good news about "fast days on market" and "great list price to sales price" is not very heartwarming to that 80% whose homes don't seem to want to sell.

In a market like this one, buyers are passing up homes (whether houses or lofts or anything else) with "issues" like busy roads, deferred updating, and of course especially overpriced homes. The property which is fixed up, in a superior location and priced aggressively - the gem, the deal - is selling fast.

This is not a market to see if you can get a price. It's a market for people serious about putting a home in top condition on the market, and pricing it to attract a buyer who's frankly looking for a good deal. Your home needs to be that good deal to sell right now.

Will it be better in the spring? Possibly. The market is really not bad now. There are always overpriced homes in less than ideal locations and with less than perfect condition that don't sell because the price isn't low enough to compensate for the problems. So don't let the failure of some properties worry you about yours. Just get it in the right shape and price it for what today's market will bear (not what you want it to be worth, not what you need, not what someone else told you it is worth).

If you are buying another home after selling the condo or townhome, you are in luck. The market gets softer as you move up the ranks, and there's a good chance you will make up for any felt loss on the next purchase. But hurry. No one knows whether it will suddenly become a different kind of market in the new year!

Call me if you'd like to chat about your real estate needs. I'm around and working through the holidays with just a couple of days off near Christmas - and I have time to visit with you and strategize to help you get the best deal when selling your home.

Wishing you and yours a very Happy Hanukkah, a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year (and anything else you might be celebrating in these days)!

Best regards,

How's the Los Gatos Real Estate Market?

For the MOST CURRENT Los Gatos real estate market information, please click on the header above to visit the most recent posts. Each week there will be an update to the housing market in Los Gatos, so return often!

The real estate market for single family homes in Los Gatos is moving more into a buyers' market. Values may be slipping some, but the big story is the fact that so few homes are selling and closing. Whether you compare November 2007 against other recent months or against other Novembers in the last ten years, sales are clearly, and dramatically, way off.

Let's take the number of closed sales from November for the last 10 years, then we'll look at the absorption rate, or "months of inventory" for Los Gatos in recent months.

As is apparent in the graph, closings are at an all-time low for November over the last decade, and in fact is about half of average. This movement is not exclusive to Los Gatos but is being seen all over Silicon Valley; this is the reason there are so many layoffs among lenders, title companies, and real estate offices (in support staff, not commissioned sales people). So even "seasonally", this is unusual.

Next, let's look at the "months of inventory", meaning how long it would take to sell off the current inventory (how many months) if nothing new came on the market and homes continued to sell off at the rate of the closeds for the month. Here, too, the figures show a deepening buyers' market. (Under 6 months is considered a sellers' market by the National Association of Realtors, over 6 months a buyers' market.)

Again, the month to month view is a clear reflection of the slowing market and the reality that fewer homes are selling. The larger the number of months, the harder it is to sell.

Some experts predict that things will calm down in 2008 and we'll have a flat or normal market, or very slight appreciation at best. Other experts predict a worsening real estate market.

Silicon Valley often marches to the beat of its own drummer. Since we have geographical constraints (two sets of mountains and a bay), a good economy and a housing shortage, I believe things will go fairly flat for most of the valley in the next year or two.

It always comes down to supply and demand. Right now there's plenty of supply in Los Gatos (about 108 homes). In neighboring Saratoga, though, there are fewer than 75 homes available - so the absorption rate there looks very different. If, in the new year, there are a lot of homes on the market, it will put downward pressure on pricing and homes will sell for less than they're selling today. If inventory tightens up, that won't happen.

Tomorrow: the real estate market for condos and townhomes in Los Gatos.

Carriage Rides in Beautiful, Downtown Los Gatos

Images from the Los Gatos Holiday Parade Dec 1 2007

My better half, Jim Handy, took these photos for my Live in Los Gatos blog today. He is a volunteer parks commissioner and was on the parks float today in the chilly weather. Enjoy!

A scene just before the parade started - this shot taken on N. Santa Cruz Avenue near Saratoga-Los Gatos Road.

Getting ready in the Almond Grove District of Los Gatos for the annual holiday parade.

This is NOT the Stanford Band, which often shows up at the Los Gatos Christmas (or holiday) parade.

One parade participant, seen above on the right, was a goat in a Christmas hat! Welcome to Los Gatos!

Jim Handy took this photo from the Parks Commission Float as it rode down North Santa Cruz Avenue in downtown Los Gatos. Nice view of the crowd and the Santa Cruz Mountains up ahead.

Kermit and Donald made a special appearance too! This photo taken on Main Street near University Avenue.

Who doesn't love a pony for the holidays?

Another adorable pony...

It was a chilly day, but a good one, for the Los Gatos holiday parade!

If you'd like to see even more photos, please visit the Los Gatos Observer article on this same great event.