O.K., I admit it, I have not posted anything for a long time.  However, much has happened since the day after the election, and I wanted to take some time to see how the market shook out.  Well, it did.  Try to remember when the only problem in the real estate market was the mortgage troubles of August 2007.  More than once in this space I opined that we would see huge improvements in year-on-year numbers once we got to October.  Unfortunately, reality intervened.  Here's what's happened recently.

In November in Somerset County, sales made dropped 21% over the same period in 2007.  Although the supply/demand ratio remained about the same (48% vs. 49%), the absorption rate tanked to 12.7 months, the worst by far since I have been recording numbers (since 2000).  Is this the end of the universe as we know it?  Not exactly.

It is customary for absorption rates to increase this time of year, as buyers back off from buying properties that have been on the market for a while.  Actually, the number of listings on December 1 were lower than last year, by about 4%.

People are waiting.  Interest rates are at last falling. Last week the national average interest rate for a thirty-year mortgage fell half a percent, resulting in a spike in mortgage applications.  In spite of a lot of bad press, there is some suggestion of confidence building, at least in Somerset County, but it is not as evident as in areas like Las Vegas, where the greatest "hits" were felt in real estate.  There, as in other areas hardest hit, "deals" are being made at very attractive prices.  Somerset County was never hit as hard as other areas, even some in New Jersey.  Our recovery will not be as dramatic, but it will happen.

Stay tuned.  I've been here before.  Now, if I can just find my trail of bread crumbs....