This week the National Association of Realtors® is holding its annual convention and expo in Las Vegas. I am here all week to get as much information and as many ideas as I can to help my clients.

On Tuesday morning Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President spoke to many of us about his view of this year and his prediction for next year. He called the year 2007 the "year of challenge." It definitely was a challenge, since home sale prices declined nationally for the first time since the Great Depression, albeit only 1.5%. The year will finish up as the fifth best homesale year ever, however.

Next year he characterized as the "year of opportunity," as the market improves significantly. He pointed out just why that will occur. Keep in mind that - as I always write - all real estate is local, but here are some nationwide trends that will help us all. There is a favorable economic backdrop, with millions of jobs created in the past 24 months. Immigrants and newly-forming families are creating a pent-up demand for housing that will most likely burst forth in 2008. Inventories of homes seem to be declining. Wall Street has finally come clean after fostering stunning greed by suggesting that 10-12% rates of return on mortgage-based securities could be had without risk. There is now and will continue to be plentiful mortgage funding, especially as FHA steps up to the plate to replace those subprime adjustables with too-good-to-be-true teaser interest rates that became exploding ARMs a year or two later. There are now safer and affordable mortgage products available widely.

Dr. Yun expressed the opinion that the Northeast seems to be recovering first (although he didn't mention NJ by name). It is clear to anyone who looks closely that homeownership is the way to household wealth accumulation, and that in the long run homeowners will always come out ahead of renters.

Tomorrow: What did John Tuccillo have to say?

Bye from Vegas, Baby.