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New Jersey Real Estate

Hillsborough, New Jersey

Real estate information and opinions about residential real estate in Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer and Middlesex Counties by a REALTOR� with over a quarter century of experience. COMMENTS ARE WELCOME. Please use the Add Comment link at the bottom of the posting.

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Media Distortions

National Association of Realtors® as Cheerleader

Jun. 26, 2008
Categorized in: Media Distortions

Every time numbers issued by the National Association of Realtors® are at variance with, say, Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index, critics loudly proclaim that NAR is nothing but a cheerleader for the profession, manipulates numbers to suit its nefarious purposes and should be disregarded.  Those folks don't seem to understand what Realtors® do for a living, much less that cheerleading for homeownership is not exactly invoking devil worship. 

In fact, the American Dream has as a large component the ownership of one's own home.  It seems that every wave of immigrants to this country has as its chief goal not only success in the new homeland, but the purchase of real estate, which may have been in short supply in the native land or simply not available to purchase.  Cheerleading for this should not be considered a bad thing, wouldn't you agree?

On the other hand, the Case-Shiller Index was largely created to assist equity speculators, hedge-fund investors, etc. With methods that emphasize negative aspects of the real estate market, and concentrating on a small subset of metropolitan areas, the CSI promotes fear like Molly Malone sold cockles and mussels.  Scream it loud and long (and sell short).

So, the next time someone accuses NAR of cheerleading, think of the millions of homeowners and prospective homeowners who benefit, and join in the cheer.

Case-Shiller Shocker

Jun. 25, 2008
Categorized in: Media Distortions

It's that time of the month again, when Standard & Poor's releases those shocking numbers on real estate, using the Case-Shiller Index and its pseudo-scientific evaluation of the housing market.

In a Forbes article yesterday those scary numbers of the statistical subset of 20 markets and the mythical national market were once again paraded by the media.  I have written frequently about the shortcomings of the Case-Shiller, but keep in mind it is definitely defective, unless you are a purveyor of hedge funds, which always do well on bad news.  And the media continue to trumpet (or should I say bleat?) the "bad news." If it bleeds, it leads.  Of course, those are numbers through April (this is the third week in June, in case no one noticed), and other reports suggest imminent improvement, especially in those areas hardest hit by the recent real estate "unpleasantness."

Ignore the national market - it doesn't exist.  Look behind the headlines and at your local market to learn what is going on.  Your local market, explained by your local Realtor®, determines the value of property you own or want to own.

Foreclosure Hysteria

Jun. 6, 2008
Categorized in: Media Distortions

In today's Inman News there was a super article by Bernice Ross, entitled "Media create foreclosure hysteria." In it she largely debunks the scary headlines that have been published recently in a variety of media.

Ross points out that Realty Trac reports the number of "filings," which includes "Notice of Default, lis pendens, Notice of Trustee Sale, and Notice of Foreclosure Sale."  She goes to write that "each of these takes place prior to foreclosure."  Lumping all these filings and foreclosures now owned by a bank creates a number several times larger than the actual number of properties in foreclosure.

Ross does not mention another important point about foreclosure reporting.  Some homes have more than one  mortgage on them.  Each mortgage can be reported as a filing, swelling the numbers significantly.

Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada accounted for 54% of the filings, and 60% of the REOs (bank ownership).  Excluding these states from the numbers, Ross points out, on average there are only 503 REOs per state.  Not quite the horror show the media would like the public to believe.

Ross' article is clearly the best I've seen on the media distortion of the foreclosure mess.  It puts the numbers in focus.  It doesn't sell newspapers or grab eyeballs, but it provides a much-needed balance.