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New Jersey Real Estate

Hillsborough, New Jersey

Real estate market information and occasionally spirited opinions about residential real estate in Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer and Middlesex Counties by a REALTOR® with over a quarter century of experience. COMMENTS ARE WELCOME. Please use the Add Comment link at the bottom of the posting.

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New Jersey Real Estate

September 2008

Politics Trumps Bailout

Sep. 29, 2008
Categorized in: Current Real Estate News

When I was a college student at Macalester College shortly after the Earth cooled, I studied political science with G. Theodore Mitau.  Ted Mitau was incredibly savvy, and we enjoyed his excitement with politics and his personal connections with liberal lions like Hubert Humphrey, Orville Freeman and Walter Mondale.  In addition, a fellow student in my international politics classes was an Ghanaian exchange student by the name of Kofi Annan.  It was a lively time.  One of the most fascinating notions Ted Mitau put forth was a great truism, perhaps a very old truism, but nevertheless great stuff for a college student: every politician in office is faced with the challenge of voting his or her conscience, or voting his or her constituents' wishes.  In other words, do people elect politicians because of the politicians' views or because the constituents believe they, the constituents, will direct the votes of the politicians?

We witnessed today congresspeople caving in to their constituents' opinions, however ill-informed they may be.  Millions of Americans sent emails and letters and made phone calls to their representatives saying in essence "this is a bad thing because it bails out Wall Street; don't pass it."  The House decided that it was important to obey The Will of the People, and voted down the bailout bill.  A cynic might say that the representatives needed the cover of a Wall Street crash in order to go against The Will of the People.  It would allow them the incredible luxury of not understanding the bill, and letting The Market make the decision. I truly doubt that the majority of American voters understand the rescue plan.  Indeed, the majority of our elected representatives probably don't fully grasp the fine points of the bill.

Well, The Market made the decision.  More than one trillion dollars disappeared from the pockets of Main Street so that Wall Street wouldn't get a 700 billion dollar rescue.  Since it will be two more days before the Congress can re-address the rescue plan, will there be a loss of a trillion dollars each day?

We need some profiles in courage here, folks - courage that was conspicuous by its absence today in the House.

Bailout Summary

Sep. 29, 2008
Categorized in: Current Real Estate News

The bailout as agreed to but not yet passed by Congress is most likely a document with many provisions unintelligible to all but the most wonkish of economists.  The best summary I have seen is that by Kenneth Harney in today's Realty Times. 

In my opinion, the entire nation - especially home buyers - has been holding its breath until it's clear what direction our economy is heading.  We may not hear the collective exhale today, or even after both houses have passed the bill, but this may be the solution the lack of mortgage money that is apparent in many areas. 

Hedge fund devotees are still thumping their tubs that the market will get worse.  However, in many areas of the country, including Somerset County, New Jersey, there are good values to be had for serious buyers.  And there are serious buyers out there for properties priced at market value and in good or better condition.

All together now - exhale.

September Challenges

Sep. 18, 2008
Categorized in: Current Real Estate News

This month has been a roller-coaster ride in politics, government, finance and weather.  I hesitate to ask the question, "What more could happen?"  So I won't.  But I will offer some suggestions as to where real estate is going. First of all, Wall Street doesn't have a hangover, it is suffering from delirium tremens. Enough of the diagnosis.

When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsed, and the Federal Government put the Federal Housing Finance Agency in place as a conservator, one of the immediate effects was that mortgage interest rates fell.  That trend may be ending - or not.  With successive collapses of investment banks Lehman and Merrill-Lynch, and insurer AIG, the toxic dust has obscured just what might be left of the investment banking industry, those folks who made subprime mortgages investment-grade bonds. 

Will all this financial rubble affect the real estate market?  It already has, but largely in a psychological sense.  Remember, it's the stock market that lost 4+% of its value in one day (twice this week, as a matter of fact).  That has scared a lot of investors.  But if home owners were losing 4% in value every day, they would be marching on Washington.

Money is moving out of equities and into Treasury bonds, driving down the yield.  It is a further step for money to seek out higher returns as can be had in mortgage securities.  However, as we know, there are fewer bold bankers out there to securitize home mortgages - but it will happen.  While financial terror is abroad in the land, financial institutions are scrambling to find ways to make money. And they will find ways.

The real estate market in the hardest-hit areas was showing some inprovement over the past two months.  The Central New Jersey market, never really hit like markets in California, Florida, Arizona and Michigan, as been chugging along.  The collapse of investment banking will affect our market, with employees of those institutions feeling shakey in their jobs if they still have them.  However, the impact will be relatively mild.  Right now, information is anecdotal, and only when we see September numbers for the whole month, and October as well, will we be able to say that we dodged the bullet (or took one to the head).

And, by the way, there is an election coming up, if you didn't hear.  Each political party's partisans believe that theirs is the party that will solve everything.  Or conversely, the other party will destroy America.  Let's be frank - neither party will be able to make substantive change for at least three months after the election, and maybe not even then.  Buyers and sellers who wait for the election to be decided, or for the inauguration to take place, or for the first piece of meaningful legislation to be passed, themselves will be passed by the real estate market.

Central NJ real estate is stable right now.  There are good homes to be found at reasonable (not bargain-basement) prices.  If you're buying or selling, talk with someone who knows the market.