The housing market in New Jersey - at least in the central Jersey area - seems to be performing like a normal market for this time of year.  As I pointed out last week, there has been increased client activity almost uniformly throughout the state.  Lately it has become more intense, as buyers make the leap to buy a home.  For this time of year, that is normal.  Is this noteworthy?

I believe that for the market to take off now is quite remarkable in light of all the negative characterizations we have read and heard over the last few months.  Wall Street analysts and their toadies in the media have done their best to keep bad news in front of the public. 

Even some New Jersey Realtors® have written elsewhere that the market won't recover until 2011, or as late as 2014.  Like Eeyore, they seem to have overdosed on thistles.  I wish them success in their new careers. 

A take-off right now is remarkable also for all the boiling and bubbling going on in the mortgage market.  The sub-prime mortgage collapse, peaking in August of last year, put a lot of lenders either out of business or on the sidelines.  Change is coming slowly, but at least there is movement on a number of fronts.  Increased "conforming" loan limits, lower interest rates, and promised increased federal scrutiny of lenders are all having an impact.

So, in New Jersey we seem to be moving - cautiously, perhaps - into a spring market.  How normal!

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported yesterday that for the week ending March 21, their Market Composite Index was up 48.1% from one week earlier, and 41.1% from the same period a year ago.

This is the most current evidence yet of an improving market.  My anecdotal information of increased "activity" (call-ins to real estate companies, etc.) since the second week in March is confirmed by this report. 

As buyers step off the sidelines to take advantage of good home selection and low interest rates their first action is to contact a real estate agent, in all likelihood, a Realtor®.  On meeting with that agent they discover that in order to participate in the real estate market they need to be qualified for a mortgage.  This often results in a mortgage application even before they find a home.  The next step is to make an offer on a home.

On April 8, the National Association of Realtors® will release their latest information on new sales - existing properties put under contract but not yet closed - for March.  That should reflect the higher activity and mortgage applications already reported.

Remember, the media love to talk about a national real estate market, and that is essentially what the Mortgage Bankers Association is writing about, as well as NAR, at least for the most part.  The real estate market is local, at least as far as individuals buying or selling is concerned.  Talk with a knowledgeable local Realtor® about your local market. 

I'll bet when you saw the title "Market Turnaround" you thought this was going to be a re-hash of my Monday post - that the market seems to be getting better, at least as far as the National Association of Realtors® is concerned.

Guess again.

Today, Standard & Poor's came out with their latest report, showing that the market was terrible - IN JANUARY.  Here we go again.  Standard & Poor's is still using the lagging, discredited, inaccurate, and geographically limited Case-Shiller Index of home sales. It was the second story on the network news this evening.  They made a big deal out of the fact that of twenty metro areas noted, only one (Charlotte, NC) did not show a decline.  THAT WAS JANUARY, for pity's sake.  Will tomorrow's headline shriek "2007 worst year in history of real estate"?  How far back can the headlines go in dredging up bad news and re-packaging it as the latest?

When will Jim Cramer's recommendation of a couple of weeks ago to hold onto Bear Stearns be trumpeted again soon as news?  Remember, this is the same guru who said three months ago "don't buy a home in 2008."  Such wisdom. If you follow his advice, you won't be able to afford to buy one - ever.

Your local market is the one to watch, and your local Realtor® is the one to listen to.