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New Jersey Real Estate

Hillsborough, New Jersey

Real estate information and opinions about residential real estate in Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer and Middlesex Counties by a REALTOR� with over a quarter century of experience. COMMENTS ARE WELCOME. Please use the Add Comment link at the bottom of the posting.

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New Jersey Real Estate

October 2007

Bottom of the Market?

Oct. 31, 2007
Categorized in: Real Estate

Blanche Evans, editor of Realty Times, yesterday posted a pithy article suggesting that the media have tired of reporting negative views of the real estate market, and in doing so may have indicated that the market has hit bottom. Read the entire article: http://tinyurl.com/38hqor

Different Views of the Market

Oct. 30, 2007
Categorized in: Real Estate
Tagged with: buyers, homes, real estate, sellers

One would never guess that we have only one real estate market at a time, judging from the different views from buyers and sellers (and agents as well). Here is my opinion on the market in central New Jersey.

We have seen lower prices and volumes for two years so far, and that trend seems to be continuing, albeit at a slowing pace. We are currently in a pre-holiday market that normally means a slower pace of activity until Thanksgiving and the year-end holidays, which cool the market further. That seasonal cooling ends around mid-January, when prices and volumes historically increase.

Many buyers are looking at the current state of the real estate market and are believing that they can wait indefinitely, because today is the highest price for any house in this "perpetually declining" market. They don't want to "overpay." (We're not buying socks, here, folks) They will be tenants for years to come.

On the other hand, many sellers regard the current market as one that has bottomed out, so the longer they wait, the higher the price they will receive. They are "not in any hurry." They will be in their current homes for a long time, and in many cases will postpone for ever good moves to other areas and other homes.

Naturally, the truth lies somewhere in between these two extremes. Buyers who have tired of being tenants with the tax benefits they have forfeited, should make a move. Inventories are high, making finding a suitable home a bit easier, and informed sellers are willing to negotiate. Will home prices go down? Maybe, but in the long run homes in this area have appreciated at about 5% per year. But more important, many people look at their home as just that, a home. Prices will fluctuate, but at least you have a home of your own.

Sellers who want to get on with their lives with a lifestyle change, should review their options, and see if they can move on perhaps in not so elegant a style as they thought a couple of years ago. But move on they should.

First-Time Home Buyers and the Market

Oct. 29, 2007
Categorized in: Real Estate

The sub-prime mortgage collapse has taken a larger toll on the real estate market than one would think. It is common for people to think that the foreclosure crunch is limited to the middle and upper level of people who knowingly or unknowingly overextended themselves in buying a home. In fact, more troubling to the market was the number of first-time home buyers who bought with little money down and whose credit was not top-level - a common occurrence with sub-prime mortgages. Why?

In most real estate markets, first-time home buyers truly move the market. Some commentators have gone so far as to say that for every home first-time home buyers buy, five more are sold. I'm not easily persuaded that as many as five more sales may be attributed to a single first-time home buyer. However, it's clear that if they sit out the market, the market will suffer. That multiplier principle - whether a factor or four or five - can have incredible market repercussions.

For example, in the central part of New Jersey, a first-time home buyer might buy a $300,000 condo or townhome. That would allow the condo/townhome owner to trade up about 50% - to a home selling for $450,000. That seller in turn would probably buy a home around $625,000, and that seller might buy for $900,000.

So what is keeping those first-time buyers on the sidelines? The mortgage crisis, most likely. A year or two ago credit-worthiness was less an issue than it is today. 103% financing made it possible for buyers without much cash to buyer a home - and many did, moving the real estate market along. When sub-prime mortgages dried up a few months ago, many of the first-time home buyers fell by the wayside.

That picture is changing, as lawmakers figure out (finally) that something must be done to make mortgage money available to those who have good jobs, pretty good credit, and little cash. The surviving banks and mortgage companies are coming up with new plans as well. After all, banks and mortgage companies exist to loan money, not own foreclosed properties.

The market in changing - for the better. As the first-time home buyers are pulled back into the game after languishing on the sidelines, homes will start selling again. The "pig in the python" of foreclosures will be digested eventually. Watch carefully as lower-priced properties start to sell in higher numbers. And, if you're a first-time home buyer, time to get back in the game before prices start rising under the pressure of more buyers buying.