Welcome to the New RealTown! Submit Feedback
Member Login | Join RealTown
The Real Estate Network

New Jersey Real Estate

Hillsborough, New Jersey

Real estate market information and occasionally spirited opinions about residential real estate in Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer and Middlesex Counties by a REALTOR® with over a quarter century of experience. COMMENTS ARE WELCOME. Please use the Add Comment link at the bottom of the posting.

Subscribe

Your E-mail Address:
Subscribe to:

Recent Comments

RE: Bridgewater NJ Real Estate Trends for May 2008
If you want to become a shoes daren,you must kno...
RE: Best Time to Buy a Home
If you want to become a shoes daren,you must kno...
RE: Preparing Your House for Sale: Part 1
If you want to become a shoes daren,you must kno...
RE: Preparing Your House for Sale: Part 3
tiffany jewelry cheap mp4 Players discount timbe...
RE: Preparing Your House for Sale: Part 3
<a href=http://www.myfaketiffany.com/>tiffan...

Favorite Links

Site Feed

RSS Feed

New Jersey Real Estate

2006

The Real Estate Market is ALWAYS about the Competition

Sep. 26, 2006
Categorized in: Real Estate
Tagged with: real estate market

The real estate market in Central New Jersey is deep in a re-alignment.  Some prefer to call it a recession, some a burst bubble.  In a nutshell, the number of properties for sale (inventory) is double what it was a year ago, and the number of sales made is down about 10%.  This is difficult for many sellers, and yet, many buyers have failed to take advantage of this situation, especially strange in light of the low mortgage interest rates and the broad choices available in housing. 

We have a different market from that of 2000-2005.

 

But there is one reality that is common both to today’s market, and to that of more than a year ago – competition. 

 

When we experienced the “sellers market” of the past several years, buyers competed for homes.  They prepared themselves for the competition by obtaining pre-approvals for mortgages, putting together large amounts of cash as initial deposits, even having their agent prepare a description of their family, etc.  They jumped in the car when their agent notified them of a new listing. These buyers were competing against similarly-prepared buyers for a limited number of homes that were on the market, and the shortage of supply and the high demand drove prices ever higher.  It was not unusual to have homes sell for many thousands of dollars over their list price.  Often, the sale price bore little resemblance to the sale price of the last “comparable” home that sold.

 

We’re not in that market any longer, but competition is still the name of the game. 

 

This time, it is the sellers who are competing for the attention of the buyers.  Any seller who believes that buyers will buy her home before viewing others – often many others - is living in a dream world – a dream that could become a nightmare. 

 

Sellers must prepare their home for sale as they would detail their car if they wanted to sell it.  “Q-tip” clean is a phrase that is often applied to this process.  It means scrubbing, painting, dusting, polishing and all the other chores that go into making a house a model home.  No dust bunnies.  No dirty grout.  No dirty windows.  You get the picture. 

 

Now, once you have created a masterpiece of sparkle and shine, the house must be priced correctly.  Don’t think that what the last home sold for is the price that yours will bring.  That’s the wrong measure.  Remember the word “competition?”  It is the competition, not the “comparables” that will determine what your home sells for.  Buyers want perfect condition for the perfect price.  It’s as simple as that.  If you’re priced $25,000 over the same homes in the same condition (or better), you’re toast.  And, if you don’t adjust that price within three weeks of listing, you may never catch up with the market.

 

Not fair, right?  That’s sort of how the buyers have felt for the last several years when they paid mega-bucks over the list price. 

The New Real Estate Market in Somerset County NJ

May. 13, 2006

From August of 2005 to May of this year, prices of residential real estate in Somerset County have stabilized, the inventory of properties available has climbed substantially, and the number of sales made has leveled off or fallen as much as 20% over the same period in prior years.  This appeared to be a seasonal happening in extreme, but when it persisted into March and April, it became evident that we were entering a new phase in the real estate market.  The spring market of 2006 is soft, and in some places promises to become even softer, as inventory stays on the market longer than in recent memory.

 

Lower prices seem inevitable, as sellers whose timetables do not allow for six-month marketing become anxious, and reduce prices to make it possible for them to move on with their plans.  This could create a vicious circle - as buyers see more price reductions by sellers who need to move forward, those buyers’ expectations will grow, and they may expect even lower prices, especially from those sellers, who have already indicated their anxiety by lowering their prices. 

 

Sellers whose plans are not in jeopardy will be forced to decide whether to lower their own prices or wait out the market, but if the number of reductions reaches a certain critical mass, all sellers will have to face the reality of the market and reduce their prices to move on. However, should interest rates rise in the meantime, buyers may retire from the search entirely – if they can.  However, interest rates would have to exceed 8% to have an impact, according to some, and that level seems unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. 

 

Another factor affecting the real estate market is the price of gasoline.  The increase in the cost of driving hits the lower income levels disproportionately – a larger percentage of their monthly budget goes to gasoline.  If the monthly cost of gasoline increases by $50, that’s almost $10,000 in mortgage amount.  Without the first-time buyers – usually lower income – the rest of the real estate market may stall, as that slowdown prevents sellers from moving up.

 

I have implied that buyers have the option of buying or not buying.  In fact, just like some sellers, some buyers must buy as families expand (or contract), or the financial benefits of home ownership become imperative.  By this summer we should see more clearly where this market is going.  If inventories decline not by selling, but by being withdrawn from the market without selling, buyers will have fewer choices, and those who feel obligated to buy may not benefit as much as those who step up to the plate in the next two months. 

 

It’s getting interesting.

 

A Cautionary Tale of Pricing

Apr. 7, 2006
Categorized in: Real Estate
Tagged with: real estate

This is a true story, unfortunately.  Only the address has been changed.

 

On September 13, 2005, I visited with owners at 12 Nice Lane in Franklin Township and presented my market analysis.  On the relocation company form I indicated a most likely sale price of $330,000, and a recommended list price of $335,000.  I based that on what I saw happening in the market, and the relocation company’s desire to have a 90-day sale.  I never heard from the owners again.

 

On September 19, 2005, the property appeared in the MLS with an out-of-area broker, listed at $344,900.  On October 3 the price was reduced to $339,900.  In October, the owners moved out of state, and the home was now vacant.  On November 6, 2005, the price was reduced to $334,900 (my original recommended price), as the market headed into a pronounced holiday period that would last through the following March.  The property was withdrawn from the market on December 9, 2005, and re-listed by the same agent on December 12, 2005.  The new list price was $329,900.

 

The market continued to do what I anticipated it would do – it became very quiet as inventories rose and buyers stayed away in droves for the holidays.  Finally, on February 7, 2006, 141 days after listing, the property went under contract, and closed on March 7, 2006.  The sale price was $320,000.  The owners priced the property $10,000 over market, and ultimately took $10,000 under market.  And, of course, they were continuing to make mortgage payments the entire time – six mortgage payments plus $155 per month association fees.  Their monthly payment was close to $2000 per month. 

 

It took three months for the property to sell after it was listed at my original price – that was the period that the relocation company wanted.  But, of course, by that time the market had changed from a slowing one to one in full holiday form.  It is unlikely that had the property been listed properly initially it would have taken three months.  The owners not only took $10,000 less, but suffered a couple of extra mortgage payments at $2000 per month. 

 

The moral of this story is one from the stock market: bears make money and bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered.