RE: Election and Aftermath
Faithful readers,
I have been intending to send a mass update for a while. I have done many interesting things since my last entry. I still intend to write the e-mail, but first I have to cover a much more important topic: the state of Kenya and my safety. Please be sure to pass this on, as I feel people back home may be worried...
When I first arrived in Kenya, posters heralding the election hung on every street corner. Billboards showing presidential candidates lined all major road-ways. On my first visit to the local supermarket chain, I witnessed a Public Service Announcement on television that denounced election violence. I knew nothing about the candidates or the upcoming election at this point, so I began asking questions. Who are these candidates? What do they stand for? Is election violence probable? There were 2 major presidential candidates in this election (and 7 other third-party candidates who didn't garner much attention).
Meanwhile, Kenya had 142 registered political parties being represented in the election (mostly for positions of Members of Parliament [MP's] or counselors). Amazingly, most of the political parties were young, less than 5 years old. Even the parties of the 2 prime candidates were less than a year in the making. The differences between these parties were minor. The formation of parties usually bordered on the refusal of one candidate to work with another.
The first major candidate in this election was the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, running on the ballot of PNU (Party of National Unity). The octogenarian is no stranger to politics, having been an avid supporter in the fight for independence in the 1960's and an economist by education. During the 1980's and 1990's, he was considered a valuable MP and spent many of those years as appointed Minister of Finance. He was hardly contested when he ran for his first-term as president in 2002. During his 5-year term, the economy had grown by 7%, infrastructure had blossomed, and international relations had improved. Kenya was looking great. Despite all of the development, Kibaki's major opponents complained that he had not done enough. There's one other important thing to know about Kibaki: his tribal affiliation is Kikuyu.
The other major candidate was a bit more controversial. A mechanical engineer by trade, Raila Odinga was backed by the party ODM (the Orange Democratic Movement). Odinga's father was the first vice president of Kenya in the 1960's. In 1982, Raila led an attempted coup against the president at the time, Moi, and as a result spent seven years in prison (1983-1990). He fled to Norway for a year and stepped into politics upon his return. His first unsuccessful bid for the presidency in 1997, followed by another in 2002. Despite this, he has remained a deeply supported MP, overseeing a region of Nairobi that includes the Kibera slum. Raila Odinga's tribal affiliation is Luo.
Why, might you ask, is tribal affiliation important? Kenya has 42 tribes, the largest of which is the Kikuyu, who make up a 5th of the population. During British Imperialism, the Kikuyu were favored by the Brits because of their keen business sense. The Kikuyu have close ties with many tribes, but also garnered many enemies because of their control of a large majority of government, industry and commerce within Kenya. No tribe overtly dislikes Kikuyu more than the Luo, however.
The Luo, incidentally, make up large section of the lower-class, including the population of many slums. They blame the Kikuyu for many of their economic hardships. I have one more aside on the relationships of the tribes. Kenya has come a long way from tribalism, but not far enough. Occasionally, past discrepancies or minor tribal differences rear their ugly heads and end up profoundly affecting tribal relations. For instance (and this is important), the Luo do not circumcise their boys, whereas virtually every other tribe does as a mark of manhood. The Kikuyu are not necessarily opposed to having a leader from another tribe, as long as a boy (read as: the uncircumcised Raila Odinga) does not try to lead men.
Ok, so let's flash forward to the present. As the election neared, mud-slinging was inevitable. Things began to look ugly, so to say, and it was guaranteed to be a close race between Kibaki and Odinga. There was even a notable bout of violence in mid-November when several women campaigning for Kibaki/PNU in Kibera were severely beaten by some of Odinga's fanatical followers. Meanwhile, all candidates for all government positions preached non-violence and a free and fair election. Last Thursday marked election day.
Supposedly, over 9 million voters turned out, out of the 14 million registered. When polls closed, the votes began being counted. By Sunday, the results would be announced and the president would immediately be sworn into office. Friday went on without incident, but on Saturday violent skirmishes began. In a couple areas of the country, including Nairobi, several groups of Odinga supporters began trying to invade ballot-counting locations, in an uproar that the counts were not coming in fast enough. At this juncture, Odinga has taken an early lead. Then on Saturday came an announcement of several contingencies and their votes that brought forth controversy. A large Rift Valley contingency, for instance, announced 99% voter turnout with Kibaki garnering 0 votes. It was clear that Odinga and his party had done some rigging.
By Saturday night, all but 15 contingencies had been reported. These 15 were all located in the Central province, the most highly populated areas of Kenya, and predominant Kibaki supporters. The race was close, with Kibaki only lagging by a few hundred-thousand votes.
Now this next part is speculation, and will never be admitted to, but it is commonly thought that by Sunday morning, Kibaki had done some counter-rigging. So much for free and fair elections.
Also by Sunday, e-mails and text messages were being circulated that Kibaki would be declared winner. When the official announcement came around 6 pm Sunday evening, Kibaki was declared the winner by a margin of 200,000 votes. Within 30 minutes, he was sworn into office at the state house. His first act was to declare the 31st as a national holiday, with work to resume on January 2nd.
Violence continued yesterday, as residents of Kibera slum and other areas of Kenya had small uprisings that were quickly squelched by police and military. A rally had been called for in Nairobi's Uhuru park, where Odinga would be declared the "people's president" (an act of treason). Military surrounded the park and closed it to the public before a rally could take place. Meanwhile, the government banned live news broadcasts for a good part of the day, to help prevent the spread of violence.
So that brings us to now. Odinga has scheduled a "peaceful" and "non-controversial" gathering in Uhuru park set for Thursday afternoon. Violence is dying down for now and things aren't looking too bad.
So the question arises: am I in danger? The answer is no. To put things in perspective, let me state my position in American terms. When the LA riots broke out in the early 1990's, was it safe to go to California? Yes. Was it safe to go to LA? Yes. Did you dare set foot in South Central LA? Hell no. So right now, travel is limited by violent areas, but I am still in a safe place, surrounded by the whole family (including Ann's siblings who live in other parts of Nairobi). We will stay in the neighborhood until everything dies out and returns to normal. I assure all of you that mine and Marica's safety are of the utmost importance to the family and many of our neighbors. If I'm in any danger, I will not hesitate to take a trip to the US Embassy and get out of here.
I received a question from my dad this morning, via text message, concerning a food shortage. Apparently the news has been showing a clip from Eldoret of Kenyans waiting in long lines to get food. So is there a food shortage? In some parts of the country, yes. Why? Well the country has been at a dead-standstill for the last week and a half. Since before Christmas, virtually every business (including those that deliver goods to outlying areas of Kenya) have been closed. This is by no means a 24-hour 365-days a year type of country, which is very unlike what we're used to. When there are a series of public holiday (December 20 and 21st, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Boxing Day, Election Day, December 28th, the recently declared December 31st, and last but not least, New Year's Day) , grocery stores close, government offices close, trucking businesses close. The only things really open are hotels, police/fire stations and hospitals. Even if I wanted to go to town, I couldn't because there are no matatus running and rental car businesses are closed. My only option would be to borrow the neighbor's car. So hopefully I have covered everything you may have seen or heard on the news.
Again, I assure you I'm safe. My trip to Kenya is not a suicide mission, so I'll leave if I need to, but for now there is no reason to be alarmed. I'll try to write a less-serious mass e-mail update in the next few days and as always, if you have any unanswered questions, please pass them my way and I'll try to respond.
My internet access has been limited (since more people are using their cellphones and usually the system is too busy). Its been taking, on average, about 2 hours of non-stop attempts just to get an e-mail sent (not to mention how long it takes to download my incoming e-mail), so if you don't hear from me right away, then don't worry. If all else fails, I'll go to a cyber cafe when they open again. Until next time, Mark |
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