Manhattan Rental Market Report

TDG/TREGNY is proud to present the September 2009 edition of our Manhattan Rental Market Report, the only research on the city’s rental rates published on a monthly basis.

This summer has been a story of unrealized dreams for landlords and property owners. While many assumed that the traditional flurry of activity would allow them to unload much of their excess inventory and raise prices, this has not been the case. In fact, we’ve observed that many of the landlords and property managers who were eager to test the market by increasing prices and removing incentives from their units saw quickly that these tactics were premature.

While activity has increased, the numbers have not shown significant improvement. Rents have stabilized, but at levels nearly 10% back from already depressed 2008 numbers. And although vacancies showed improvement this month, they have yet to establish the trend necessary to absorb the considerable amount of excess inventory that is continuing to depress the market.

As Manhattan heads towards the traditionally slower winter months, it seems unlikely that the market will rebound in 2009. Given the depth that the market has fallen to date, significant gains are necessary for a recovery. Such increases, which would have been a stretch even for the summer market, are even more unlikely to occur during Manhattan’s slower seasons.

A Quick Look

August Average Rental Prices in Manhattan

Greatest Changes Since August

Year-over-year Changes

Notable Trends

Rents stabilize — September’s flurry of activity has helped to stabilize rents this month. The largest gains since August were in non-doorman two–bedroom units, which increased by 2.03%. Still, the modest gains have done little to mitigate the lag in year–over–year price comparisons, which continue to plague the market.

Vacancies continue to fall — The decrease in inventories that Manhattan saw in August has accelerated pace this month. Vacancies fell -5.58% overall, with non–doorman units falling -7.00% and doorman units -4.32%.

A market of uncertainty — Speculation as to the direction of Manhattan’s rental market continues to be mixed. Yet, while September did show modest improvements, the numbers are not strong enough to indicate that the market will rebound this year. Without significant changes in October, it seems that Manhattan will again see a cold winter for rentals.

Where Prices Decreased

Harlem—Non-doorman studios (-4.16%), doorman studios (-1.68%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-4.78%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-2.70%), doorman two-bedrooms (-10.70%)

Upper West Side—Doorman studios (-0.22%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-1.11%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-4.84%), doorman two-bedrooms (-1.21%)

Upper East Side—Non-doorman studios (-0.76%), doorman studios (-0.64%), doorman one-bedrooms (-0.90%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-0.43%), doorman two-bedrooms (-10.87%)

Midtown West—Non-doorman studios (-0.34%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-3.40%), doorman two-bedrooms (-12.67%)

Midtown East—Non-doorman studios (-3.54%), doorman one-bedrooms (-1.90%)

Murray Hill—Non-doorman studios (-4.29%), doorman studios (-1.86%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-2.14%)

Chelsea—Non-doorman studios (-3.56%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-0.89%), doorman two-bedrooms (-2.40%)

Gramercy Park—Doorman two-bedrooms (-1.19%)

Greenwich Village—Doorman studios (-3.28%)

East Village—Doorman one-bedrooms (-0.22%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-0.50%)

SoHo—Non-doorman studios (-3.96%)

Lower East Side—Non-doorman studios (-1.58%), doorman studios (-3.31%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-9.89%), doorman one-bedrooms (-9.09%), doorman two-bedrooms (-6.26%)

TriBeCa—Non-doorman studios (-3.02%), doorman studios (-0.35%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-0.73%), doorman two-bedrooms (-0.55%)

Financial District—Non-doorman studios (-0.71%), doorman studios (-0.73%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (-6.19%), doorman one-bedrooms (-1.67%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (-0.45%)

Battery Park City—Doorman one-bedrooms (-2.04%), doorman two-bedrooms (-1.38%)

Where Prices Increased

Harlem—Doorman one-bedrooms (1.13%)

Upper West Side—Non-doorman studios (0.79%), doorman one-bedrooms (0.43%)

Upper East Side—Non-doorman one-bedrooms (0.47%)

Midtown West—Doorman studios (1.39%), doorman one-bedrooms (0.46%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (2.72%)

Midtown East—Doorman studios (1.26%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (0.87%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (14.65%), doorman two-bedrooms (0.70%)

Murray Hill—Non-doorman one-bedrooms (1.03%), doorman one-bedrooms (0.59%), doorman two-bedrooms (4.27%)

Chelsea—Doorman studios (3.59%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (1.12%), doorman one-bedrooms (0.18%)

Gramercy Park—Non-doorman studios (1.34%), doorman studios (1.42%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (1.05%), doorman one-bedrooms (0.56%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (0.70%)

Greenwich Village—Non-doorman studios (0.20%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (2.27%), doorman one-bedrooms (1.98%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (9.15%), doorman two-bedrooms (8.29%)

East Village—Non-doorman studios (2.74%), doorman studios (4.48%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (2.44%), doorman two-bedrooms (7.81%)

SoHo—Doorman studios (1.40%), non-doorman one-bedrooms (8.71%), doorman one-bedrooms (4.26%), non-doorman two-bedrooms (10.33%), doorman two-bedrooms (1.24%)

Lower East Side—Non-doorman two-bedrooms (3.96%)

TriBeCa—Non-doorman one-bedrooms (6.32%), doorman one-bedrooms (3.18%)

Financial District—Doorman two-bedrooms (1.07%)

Battery Park City—Doorman studios (10.22%)

Tips for Renters

• Impress for less. The glitz and glamour of the Upper East Side just got a bit more affordable. Doorman two–bedroom units on the UES saw a decline of 10.87% — bringing them down to $4,693. So for renters looking for a pad with prestige, we’d suggest they grab the 6 train and head uptown.
• Bringing back the bargains. The Lower East Side looks to be regaining its bargain status. Non–doorman studio units, which had shot up to above $2K in May, have since seen steady declines and fell another 1.58% this month. They are now the second most affordable option in Manhattan at $1,660.
• Get a monthly bonus. Wall Streeters looking for local convenience should head across West Street to Battery Park City. For $400 less per month than the FiDi, BPC renters get the benefits of a doorman for just $2,817.

Mean Manhattan Rental Prices

The Mean Rental Price graphs illustrate average monthly rents for studios, one–bedrooms and two–bedrooms in doorman and non–doorman buildings in Manhattan for the month of September 2009. Graphs tracking citywide and neighborhood price changes over a rolling 13-month period follow.

The Manhattan Rental Market Report is based on data cross-sectioned from over 10,000 currently available listings located below 155th Street and priced under $10,000, with ultra-luxury property omitted to obtain a true monthly rental average. Our data is aggregated from the TREGNY proprietary database and sampled from a specific mid-month point to record current rental rates offered by landlords during that particular month. It is then combined with information from the REBNY Real Estate Listings Source (RLS), OnLine Residential (OLR.com) and R.O.L.E.X. (Real Plus).

Please visit the TREGNY webiste for further details:

http://www.tregny.com/manhattan_rental_market_report

RE: Manhattan Rental Market Report

Hi Jeffrey - While you're publishing this report all over the web, it appears that you've left off the citation of the actual author - which is TDG/TREGNY.