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August 2007

• August 27, 2007 - My Home is Vacant - is it still Insured?

Don't count on it!  Approximately 40% of all homes listed for sale in the Valley of the Sun (Greater Phoenix) MLS are currently vacant!   This is very troubling since most sellers think that their home is covered by the home insurance policy that they had in place when they were living there. 

All insurance property policies have a requirement that the dwelling they are insuring not be vacant for any greater than 30, 60, or 90 days at any time (depending on the policy) during the policy term.  If it is vacant longer than whatever number of days are specified, and becomes damaged during those later days, in many instances the insurance company will deny the claim because you failed to comply with the insuring requirements.

Sometimes you can get a “Vacancy Permit” which basically extends very basic coverages for your property for an additional short period of time to allow you time to either move back into the property yourself or find a renter.

So to be on the safe side we recommend that you call your insurance agent immediately and talk with them regarding your policy.

Hope this helps some of you sellers out there.

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• August 15, 2007 - Mortgage Rate Analysis

After a jump of almost half a percent in early June, for the last month and a half interest rates on fixed rate mortgages have remained fairly steady. 

Last week, the Standard & Poor stock average fell 5%.  Often the stock market slides in advance of slower economic growth.

The housing sector of the economy is down, homebuilders are hurting -- and so are financial companies, including mortgage companies, credit card services, consumer finance companies, and even those that help finance mergers and acquisitions.

Durable goods orders fell 0.5%.  Durable goods are purchases of items expected to last more than a year.  Refrigerators, cars, carpets, airplanes, etc.

Even so, economists are optimistic.  They believe that economic growth in the second quarter will exceed 3%.  Manufacturing is up in the United States, for example. 

But trucking is down.

A trade war could be developing, too.  Congress is very unhappy with China because they appear to purposely devalue their currency, making their manufactured goods cheaper to import than it costs to build things in the U.S.  So the Senate passed a bill that could "punish" China.  The result?  It might cost more to buy things.

That could potentially mean inflation, though that too appears to be under control for now.

During times of inflation, interest rates go up.

During times of strong economic growth, there is more danger of inflation. 

So are economists right?  Or is the stock market right?

You can't always trust the stock market because of the occasional rise of "irrational exuberance" and "cheerless gloom." But you cannot always trust economists, either -- because they focus on numbers and data, ignoring the effects of psychology on the markets -- which become exaggerated during upward and downward trends.

Right now the bond market is saying, things aren't great, but they're not so bad, either.  We just want "safe" investments -- not risky investments.

That's what happens when the future is uncertain.

Interest rates for A-paper mortgages will probably remain stable or slightly increase in the near future.  For those with sub-prime credit or an inability to adequately document income, things will be tight and loans may be difficult to obtain without paying drastically higher interest rates or making larger down payments.

As always, no predictions can be guaranteed.

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• August 13, 2007 - The Effects of Easy Money

In the eighties, lots of changes began influencing the mortgage industry and things have been rapidly spinning ever since.

Computers were a big part of the change and IBM Selectric computers were no longer necessary.  Software would do a lot of the work allowing loan processors to be more productive.

Lending was becoming easier.  Credit scoring was new and experimental in the mid-to-late nineties.  It was easier to quickly underwrite loans.  Underwriters could be more productive, too.

Real estate companies started "bundling" services and added lending to their repertoire, creating their own mortgage brokerages.  Previously, most would refer the loans to capable loan officers at lenders with good reputations.

Mortgage lenders needed to regain that lost market share and began to look for methods to reach the consumer directly instead of through referrals.

The internet helped make that possible.

In 1996, the average loan origination fee charged on a mortgage was 2.1 points (2.1% of the loan amount).  In 1997 that dropped suddenly to .7 points, partly because of "consumer direct" marketing efforts, including the internet.  That's good for consumers.

At most lenders, loan officers were paid only on commission.  Part of the "points" went to pay the loan officer.  Part went to pay the cost of the loan.

Suddenly, loan officers were making less money.  Some left to form their own boutique brokerages where they didn't have to split income with their company.  New loan processing software for personal and laptop computers made that possible.

Others went to a rapidly growing sector of the market.

Subprime.  Loans for borrowers with less that perfect credit.

 Wall Street loved sub-prime because investors in mortgage-backed securities earned higher rates of return on their money at a time when interest rates were falling.

Subprime kept growing, followed by Alt-A and A-minus.  Alt-A isn't really for "bad credit" borrowers, but borrowers that didn't quite meet standard underwriting guidelines -- or the property didn't.  A-minus was a way for portfolio lenders to take marginal borrowers that might have squeaked through and put them into something that earned slightly higher interest rates.

The subprime market required less paperwork.  Less qualified loan officers.  It was easy.

It was also easy for buyers and borrowers. 

A mediocre home sales market began slowly recovering  in 1997, too.  By 2004 and 2005, the market was piping hot. Home ownership soared.

 Subprime, once a minor sector of the mortgage business was responsible for almost 20% of loan originations in some states.

FHA loans were 18% of the market in 1990.  By 2006, only 4% of new loans were FHA.  Savings & Loans had been disappearing for awhile or gobbled up by larger institutions.

Subprime was easier money, both for the mortgage industry and for borrowers.

Fifteen percent of all borrowers who get a subprime loan would probably qualify for A-paper.

Many more subprime borrowers default on their mortgages and the wheels began falling off subprime early in 2007.  It looks like things may come to a screeching halt for that sector of the market.

These influences helped fuel the "flip" mentality of the recent home market.  Prices will always go up.

Things are slower now, including home appreciation, partly due to the effects of easy money.

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• August 11, 2007 - Easy ways to Boost your Curb Appeal

Selling Your Home?  Here are 11 ways to easily boost your Curb Appeal in a weekend.  Check out this article.

http://www.homepages.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=182b7d7a-d61e-4eed-88fc-ef50013ace17

Feel Free to call us if you have any questions.

Randy & Paul

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Paul & Randy are the Homes2Know Team & this is our Blog. Our Blog is designed to be a resource for buyers, sellers, homeowners, and those relocating to the Phoenix area.

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