November, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis & Commentary

MORE GOOD NEWS!  Like most of you, I'm tired of all of the negative press which is impacting the psyche of the country and the US housing market.  I made a comment nearly two years ago when everyone started talking about a "bubble" that I was NOT going to participate in this alleged real estate downturn.  Not to say that I'm unaware that the market is different, but I'm not going to surrender because of negative news articles!  I continue to believe that real estate is the most stable, best long term investment anyone could own!  I believe the optimism we share as Americans will survive and that we will outlast the medias negative spin.

It was announced yesterday that there would be over $90 billion dollars added to help with the liquidity crisis.  This should have a positive impact on the overall market and allow lenders to continue to make good loans.  The FED also dropped two key interest rates by another 1/4% this week.  In January, we will vote for some real tax relief in Florida, not the ideal outcome, but a great step in the right direction!  People who feel they have been "locked in their home" because they wanted to keep their low property taxes caused by the Homestead exemption should see that portability is the answer we've all be waiting for!  More about this in future blogs, but this is really an important tax change if Amendment 1 passes on January 29, 2008 (and it certainly should)!  I'm looking forward to a 2008 that surpasses the sales in 2007, which is shaping up to be THE FIFTH BEST YEAR IN THE HISTORY OF REAL ESTATE SALES in the US!  

The Greater Orlando area real estate market remained stable in November with closed sales which will exceed September 2007 sales (when adjusted to the final figures) and come in just under October 2007 sale figures.  Closed sales have stabilized for the past three months so that is cause for more optimism.  Inventory levels which had steadily climbed for the past year and a half have remained level now for six consecutive months!  The numbers should continue to look much better in January, 2008 when we begin to go up against the 2007 numbers instead of comparing to the 2006 numbers like we did this year.  2008 might start out below 2007 sales figures but the pent up demand, excellent selection and affordable prices should make 2008 an even better year!  IT IS THE TIME TO BUY!

Sales (unadjusted) for the month were 963 homes sold, about 47.7% below last year's 1,840 sales in November, 2006 BUT stable for the past three consecutive months according to the latest Market Pulse Report. This report includes homes sold by the nearly 12,000 members of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association and compares monthly statistics from November 2006 to November 2007. The report covers listings, sales, days on market & important statistics regarding real estate transactions comparing and showing trends for the past thirteen months.

Here's a link to this month's full report:

www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/MarketPulse1207.pdf

The number of active listings (homes for sale) is DOWN slightly this month. The inventory levels in Central Florida real estate appear to have peaked as listings have remained flat at around 26,000 so that is another very good sign! The number of Realtors in our Association is STILL holding steady which quite honestly is surprising.

The Absorption Rate, the number of homes for sale 26,172 divided by the monthly closed sales of 963, continues to be watched as a key indicator of overall market health. There is currently a 27 month supply of homes on the market but this is nearly identical to September's supply.

While I'm aware we are in an undeniable buyer's market, I also remain optimistic each and every day that we are turning the corner towards a balanced market. We have a lot of inventory to sell, but we are poised for a nice return to a very stable real estate market.  Spread the news that this is the best time I've seen in the last twenty years to buy a home with low interest rates and a great selection!

On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team, we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs throughout the Central Florida area. Feel free to contact me directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate questions you may have.

Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO