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Dec. 13, 2007
November, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis & Commentary
MORE GOOD NEWS! Like most of you, I'm tired of all of the negative press which is impacting the psyche of the country and the US housing market. I made a comment nearly two years ago when everyone started talking about a "bubble" that I was NOT going to participate in this alleged real estate downturn. Not to say that I'm unaware that the market is different, but I'm not going to surrender because of negative news articles! I continue to believe that real estate is the most stable, best long term investment anyone could own! I believe the optimism we share as Americans will survive and that we will outlast the medias negative spin.
It was announced yesterday that there would be over $90 billion dollars added to help with the liquidity crisis. This should have a positive impact on the overall market and allow lenders to continue to make good loans. The FED also dropped two key interest rates by another 1/4% this week. In January, we will vote for some real tax relief in Florida, not the ideal outcome, but a great step in the right direction! People who feel they have been "locked in their home" because they wanted to keep their low property taxes caused by the Homestead exemption should see that portability is the answer we've all be waiting for! More about this in future blogs, but this is really an important tax change if Amendment 1 passes on January 29, 2008 (and it certainly should)! I'm looking forward to a 2008 that surpasses the sales in 2007, which is shaping up to be THE FIFTH BEST YEAR IN THE HISTORY OF REAL ESTATE SALES in the US!
The Greater Orlando area real estate market remained stable in November with closed sales which will exceed September 2007 sales (when adjusted to the final figures) and come in just under October 2007 sale figures. Closed sales have stabilized for the past three months so that is cause for more optimism. Inventory levels which had steadily climbed for the past year and a half have remained level now for six consecutive months! The numbers should continue to look much better in January, 2008 when we begin to go up against the 2007 numbers instead of comparing to the 2006 numbers like we did this year. 2008 might start out below 2007 sales figures but the pent up demand, excellent selection and affordable prices should make 2008 an even better year! IT IS THE TIME TO BUY!
Sales (unadjusted) for the month were 963 homes sold, about 47.7% below last year's 1,840 sales in November, 2006 BUT stable for the past three consecutive months according to the latest Market Pulse Report. This report includes homes sold by the nearly 12,000 members of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association and compares monthly statistics from November 2006 to November 2007. The report covers listings, sales, days on market & important statistics regarding real estate transactions comparing and showing trends for the past thirteen months.
Here's a link to this month's full report:
www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/MarketPulse1207.pdf
The number of active listings (homes for sale) is DOWN slightly this month. The inventory levels in Central Florida real estate appear to have peaked as listings have remained flat at around 26,000 so that is another very good sign! The number of Realtors in our Association is STILL holding steady which quite honestly is surprising.
The Absorption Rate, the number of homes for sale 26,172 divided by the monthly closed sales of 963, continues to be watched as a key indicator of overall market health. There is currently a 27 month supply of homes on the market but this is nearly identical to September's supply.
While I'm aware we are in an undeniable buyer's market, I also remain optimistic each and every day that we are turning the corner towards a balanced market. We have a lot of inventory to sell, but we are poised for a nice return to a very stable real estate market. Spread the news that this is the best time I've seen in the last twenty years to buy a home with low interest rates and a great selection!
On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team, we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs throughout the Central Florida area. Feel free to contact me directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate questions you may have.
Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Realty Executives Orlando
Nov. 5, 2007
September, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis & Commentary
The Greater Orlando area real estate market has slowed in September and closed sales took a significant month over month drop. We have not yet experienced a drop-off like this but it wasn't unexpected considering the barrage of negative media coverage from newspapers, TV and the Internet! We should get a break from the negativity when the media has the Presidential election to focus on in 2008. Hopefully that will get real estate off the front page and the buyers and sellers "fear" will subside and we'll begin to see an increase in sales. I wasn't expecting a drop in sales quite as steep as we experienced but the buyers have been standing on the sidelines and afraid to move forward. That is changing and I'm getting more phone calls and showings of properties over the last week or two.
This market isn't much different than the early 1990's when we had high inventory, many foreclosures, the RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation) to manage assets and to basically bail out the S&L's after the savings and loan crisis in the late 1980's. There were many naysayers and gloom and doomer's then as there are today. I worked through that market and real estate got stronger and stronger each passing year since that "crisis" so I remain optimistic and I'm firmly convinced that this is a GREAT time to buy real estate!
Sales (unadjusted) for the month were only 924 homes sold, down over 55% compared to last years 2,054 sales in Sept., 2006 according to the latest Market Pulse Report. That's the lowest number I can remember and it would be hard to predict any further decline in sales figures. This report includes homes sold in Orange and Seminole Counties and compares monthly statistics from September 2006 to September 2007. The report covers listings, sales, days on market & important statistics regarding real estate transactions in Orange and Seminole Counties comparing and showing trends for the past thirteen months.
Here's a link to this month's full report:
www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/MarketPulse907.pdf
The active listing numbers (homes for sale) is virtually unchanged this month in the two county area. The record high inventory levels in Central Florida real estate are a concern but it appears we may have peaked and should see a small decline in active listings over the Holiday period. The number of Realtors in our Association is still holding steady which quite honestly is surprising. With over 12,300 agents and only 924 sales in September that would represent only one home sold per thirteen agents this month, or 92.5% of the agents would have zero sales for the month if the remaining 7.5% had only one sale each!
The Absorption Rate, the number of homes for sale 26,310 divided by the monthly closed sales 924, continues to be watched as a key indicator of overall market health. There is currently a 28.5 month (well over two years!) supply of homes on the market! This is by far the highest ratio I've seen in the years I've been calculating this market indicator but the steep decline in sales inflated this number dramatically so it's not too surprising. Another concern is that "New Contracts" (a predictor of closed sales for the next month or two) fell again to the lowest number in the thirteen month period.
I believe we are going to see a few more tough months during the Holiday season which is traditionally not the best time of year for real estate sales. January and February are historically the slowest months but that wasn't true in 2007 so we could be a pick-up in sales in early 2008. It could still easily be mid-2008 before we see any significant jump in sales, and realistically at least into 2009 before we have a balanced market.
On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team, we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs throughout the Central Florida area. Feel free to contact me directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate questions you may have.
Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Realty Executives Orlando
Sep. 30, 2007
Orlando, FL Home Sales; Central FL Housing Statistics; Real Estate Trends in Greater Orlando, FL; Home Inventory Florida
Sep. 5, 2007
July, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis
and Commentary
Unfortunately the summer market "bounce" we had hoped for has not
happened. The month of July had the fewest sales of any month
so far this year. That's not what we were hoping for being
that this is generally a good selling time while school is
out. Sales (unadjusted) for the month were 1,354
homes sold, down 42.6% compared to last years 2,361 sales
in July of 2006 according to the latest Market Pulse
Report. This report includes homes sold in Orange and Seminole
Counties and covers July 2006 to July 2007 real estate
activity. The report covers listings, sales, days on
market & important statistics regarding real estate
transactions in Orange and Seminole Counties comparing and showing
trends for the past thirteen months. Here's a link to this month's
report: www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/Market-Pulse-8-07.pdf
You may also view this monthly information anytime at www.MartysBlog.com.
The active listing numbers (homes for sale) increased slightly to
26,018 homes for sale in the two county area. This is another new
record high inventory level in Central Florida real estate, and a
record which has been broken monthly for seven consecutive months.
While homes for sale increased, homes sold during the month again
declined. The number of Realtors in our Association is higher than
one year ago (12,668 members in 2007 compared to 11,939 in July,
2006) and also increased for the month. There are about 10,942
homes sold in 2007 year to date. When divided between 12,000+
agents that's an average of less than one home sold per agent
in seven months!
The Absorption Rate (the number of homes for sale 26,018 divided by
the monthly closed sales 1,354), which is a key indicator of
overall market health, shows there is currently a 19.2 month
(over a year and a half) supply of homes on the market! This is the
highest number I've ever experienced. Another concern is
that “New Contracts" (a predictor of closed sales for the next
month or two) fell dramatically again to the lowest number in
the thirteen month period.
We are starting to see more
homes being rented (but there's a major oversupply of rentals too)
and more "short sales" (sellers who need debt forgiveness from
their lender to reduce the loan pay-off to make the sale work).
Also, the price reductions still seem to
be increasing and the number of vacant homes is very
substantial. Buyers are entering the market to buy at the
lower prices, but it's the lowest priced homes or the nicest homes
in the neighborhood at near the lowest prices that are
selling.
I
believe with the loan crisis and with mortgage companies
including major corporations exiting the home loan business
daily, we are going to see continued market
stagnation during the last quarter of 2007 and into
2008. I'm changing my forecast on when we see improvement to
late 2008, and realistically into 2009 before we have a balance in
the market. It's a tough market but a few homes are
selling. It's a matter of time and price, and keeping your
home in absolute move-in condition to attract the buyers that are
in the market today. On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team,
we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs
throughout the Central Florida area. Feel free to contact me
directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate
questions you may have.
Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI,
e-PRO
Realty Executives
Orlando
Jul. 16, 2007
June, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis and Commentary
The traditional sales increase we hoped for during the 2007 “summer peak buying season” has not happened. Sales (unadjusted) for the month were 1,431 homes sold, down 49.6% compared to last year’s 2,841 sales in June of 2006 according to the latest Market Pulse Report. This report includes homes sold in Orange and Seminole Counties and covers June 2006 to June 2007 real estate activity. The report covers listings, sales, days on market & important statistics regarding real estate transactions in Orange and Seminole Counties comparing and showing trends for the past thirteen months. Here's a link to this month's report: www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/Market_Pulse_July_9.pdf You may also view this monthly information anytime at www.MartysBlog.com.
The active listing numbers (homes for sale) increased to 25,923 homes for sale in the two county area. This is another new record high inventory level in Central Florida real estate, and a record which has been broken monthly for six consecutive months. While homes for sale increased, homes sold during the month declined. The number of Realtors in our Association is higher than one year ago (12,545 members in 2007 compared to 11,951 in June, 2006) and also increased for the month. There are about 11,440 homes sold in 2007 year to date. When divided between 12,000+ agents that’s an average of less than one home sold in six months per agent!
The number of homes on the market increased by 40.6%, 25,923 in June, 2007 compared to 18,437 in June, 2006. With the exception of condos and areas where there is new construction and investors still trying to sell, the price drops have been significant but not devastating in most areas. The Absorption Rate (the number of homes for sale 25,923 divided by the monthly closed sales 1,431), which is a key indicator of overall market health, shows there is currently more than a 18 month (a year and a half) supply of homes on the market! This is the highest number I’ve ever experienced. It doesn’t seem likely to slip much further but one concern is that “New Contracts” (a predictor of closed sales for the next month or two) slipped to the lowest number in the thirteen month period.
We are starting to see increased buyer activity in the lower price ranges and are getting a few more showings than in the past several months, but showings are still precious few. The price reductions seem to be steeper and more widespread and the number of vacant homes seems to have increased. Buyers are entering the market to buy at the lower prices, but it’s the lowest priced homes or the nicest homes in the neighborhood at near the lowest prices that are selling.
Optimistically, I think we are going to see the market bottom out during the last half of 2007. As we enter 2008 the numbers will look much better because we’ll be comparing against the 2007 sales and inventory figures. On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team, we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs throughout the Central Florida area. Feel free to contact me directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate questions you may have. Enjoy the summer!
Marty Hunt, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Realty Executives Orlando
Jun. 15, 2007
May, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis and Commentary
I was hoping and actually willing to bet that there would be news of significant improvement this month after four slow sales months to start the year! It was expected that we'd begin to see the normal seasonal bump in sales in May but that did not happen. According to the latest Market Pulse Report, 1,550 homes sold in May, below the average of about 1,600 homes per month were sold in Orange and Seminole Counties in the first four months of 2007. The Market Pulse Report covering May 2006 to May 2007 real estate activity was released this week and is enclosed for your review. The report covers listings, sales, days on market and other critical statistics regarding real estate transactions in Orange and Seminole Counties comparing and showing trends for the past thirteen months.
The active listing numbers increased again to 25,463 homes for sale in the two county area. This is yet again the highest inventory level in the history of Central Florida real estate, and a record which has been broken monthly for five consecutive months. While homes for sale increased, homes sold during the month declined to only 1,550 homes closed in May, 2007. This is a 45% drop from last year's number when 2,842 home sales were recorded. The number of Realtors in our Association is still HIGHER than one year ago (12,157 members in 2007 compared to 11,821 in May, 2006). I'm thinking the number of agents will have to decline appreciably and soon. There are less than 8,000 homes sold split between 12,000+ agents over a five month period.
The number of homes on the market has increased by 40% (25,463 in May, 2007 compared to 18,179 in May, 2006). Prices have still remained fairly stable for the time being. The Absorption Rate (the number of homes for sale 2,435 divided by the monthly closed sales 1,469), which is a key indicator of overall market health, shows there is currently more than a 16.5 month supply of homes on the market! I'm seeing a lot of homes now that are vacant (which can cause insurance issues) and I'm seeing a lot of steep price reductions of $30,000 to $50,000 on some fairly low and moderately priced homes. Buyers are still standing on the sidelines and reading the news so each showing and buyer is critical in this market.
Combined with the property taxes and homeowners insurance costs, and the sub-prime loan crisis causing tightening of credit standards allowing fewer people to buy and refinance, it is quite honestly looking like at least another year and probably more before we get back to a balanced market. This is not to discourage anyone from making a decision to buy or sell a home, vacation home, or income/investment properties. I only want you to be aware of the actual numbers and trends to assist you in making the decisions that best meet your needs. On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team, we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs throughout the Central Florida area! Feel free to contact me directly at (407) 869-7779 or toll-free at (888) 412-8681 with any real estate questions you may have. Have a great Summer!!!
Sincerely,
Marty Hunt
Marty Hunt, Realtor® ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Marketing Specialist and Real Estate Consultant
Realty Executives Orlando
May. 14, 2007
April, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis and Commentary
I was confident there would be news of significant improvement this month after a much slower than expected first quarter. Generally April, May and June are pretty good months in terms of sales. According to the latest Market Pulse Report, homes sales averaged fewer than 1,600 homes per month sold in Orange and Seminole Counties in the first quarter of 2007. April's sales unfortunately did not improve as expected and actually declined to 1,469 homes sold in April, 2007 (preliminary figure, could be adjusted).
The Market Pulse Report covering April 2006 to April 2007 real estate activity was released this week and is linked below for your review. The report covers listings, sales, days on market and other critical statistics regarding real estate transactions in Orange and Seminole Counties comparing and showing trends for the past thirteen months. View this information at www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/Market%20Pulse%205-07.pdf or anytime at www.MartysBlog.com
The active listing numbers increased again to 24,435 homes for sale in the two county area. This is the highest inventory level in the history of Central Florida real estate, and it's a record which has been broken monthly for four consecutive months. While homes for sale increased, homes sold during the month declined to only 1,469 homes closed in April, 2007. This is a 40% drop from last year's number when 2,467 home sales were recorded. I continue to be surprised that the number of Realtors in our Association is remaining pretty steady and is actually above the number from one year ago (11,970 members in 2007 compared to 11,642 in April, 2006). It seems impossible that nearly 12,000 agents would survive with about 1,600 sales among them each month so far this year (on average 6 out of 7 didn't have a sale)!
The number of homes on the market has increased by 52% (24,435 in April, 2007 compared to 16,036 in April, 2006). Prices have remained fairly stable for the time being with some areas showing more substantial declines. The days on market to sell have nearly doubled. Keep in mind that days on market is a misleading number because it calculates only the homes that have sold! While 1,469 homes sold last month, there were over twice as many homes (3,296) that came off the market unsold. Homes that come off the market unsold do not count in the days on market calculation. The Absorption Rate (the number of homes for sale 2,435 divided by the monthly closed sales 1,469) calculates there is currently more than a sixteen month supply of homes on the market!
My biggest concern at this point is to make sure each client who has a home on the market today is positioned in the market to sell based on your individual needs and time frame. If 1,600 homes are sold per month and each buyer looks at ten homes in person (and that might be a high estimate in this Internet age), that would mean the average home gets LESS THAN ONE SHOWING per month. There are many homes that have not had a single showing in two months or more! Have your home 100% ready (sparkling, impeccably clean, well maintained lawn, flowers and shrubs) when you get that showing. Each viewing by every buyer is critical in this market. On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team, we are here to assist you in this interesting market. Buying or selling, feel free to contact me directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate questions or concerns you may have.
Marty Hunt
Marty Hunt, Realtor® ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Marketing Specialist and Real Estate Consultant
Realty Executives Orlando
Apr. 19, 2007
Real Estate Market Pulse, March 2007
The April Market Pulse Report which covers the March, 2007 real estate activity was released this week. The report covers listings, sales, days on market and other critical statistics regarding real estate transactions mostly in Orange and Seminole County.
Click here to view a PDF file containing this data:
www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/Market%20Pulse%204-07.pdf
The number of active listings has increased to a new record of 23,547 homes for sale in the two county area. This is the highest inventory level in the history of Central Florida real estate. Sales for the month were quite frankly surprising and somewhat disappointing, with only 1,665 homes closed in March, 2007. That is a sobering 42% decline from last year's number when 2,878 home sales were recorded. The sales in March, 2006 were the highest sales of any month in that calendar year with two other months also being over 2,800 homes sold in May, 2006 and June, 2006. If 2007 follows that trend and sales this year don't go much higher than March's figure this will really become serious for many hopeful home sellers.
On the flip side, there has not been a better time to buy a home in my eighteen years of selling real estate. Interest rates continue to hover near historical lows, inventory is obviously abundant so selection is good, and prices seem to have stabilized.
The number of homes on the market has increased by nearly 62% (23,547 in March, 2007 compared to 14.559 in March, 2006). Prices have remained fairly stable in most areas and the days on market to sell have continued to rise. If you're planning to sell, allow as much time as possible and begin your planning early if you can! While 1,665 homes sold last month, there were a record 3,401 homes that came off the market unsold (expired or withdrawn listings). More than twice as many homes came off the market as homes that sold last month. Homes that came off the market unsold do not count into the days on market calculation.
The Absorption Rate (the number of homes for sale divided by the monthly closed sales) continues to hover at well over a year (14.1 months). In other words, there are 23,547 homes for sale and 1,665 sales last month and at this rate it will take fourteen months to clear the inventory currently on the market.
I'll keep you posted as the summer selling season progresses. I'm optimistic that we'll see significant improvement, but the time frame is uncertain. Many of the experts had been predicting a more balanced market by mid to late 2007 but I believe the timeline could be much farther out into 2008 or even 2009. Based on the statistics, it would seem we have been at the bottom of the cycle these past few months, so some mild improvement should be coming fairly soon!
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