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July, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis
and Commentary
Unfortunately the summer market "bounce" we had hoped for has not
happened. The month of July had the fewest sales of any month
so far this year. That's not what we were hoping for being
that this is generally a good selling time while school is
out. Sales (unadjusted) for the month were 1,354
homes sold, down 42.6% compared to last years 2,361 sales
in July of 2006 according to the latest Market Pulse
Report. This report includes homes sold in Orange and Seminole
Counties and covers July 2006 to July 2007 real estate
activity. The report covers listings, sales, days on
market & important statistics regarding real estate
transactions in Orange and Seminole Counties comparing and showing
trends for the past thirteen months. Here's a link to this month's
report: www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/Market-Pulse-8-07.pdf
You may also view this monthly information anytime at www.MartysBlog.com.
The active listing numbers (homes for sale) increased slightly to
26,018 homes for sale in the two county area. This is another new
record high inventory level in Central Florida real estate, and a
record which has been broken monthly for seven consecutive months.
While homes for sale increased, homes sold during the month again
declined. The number of Realtors in our Association is higher than
one year ago (12,668 members in 2007 compared to 11,939 in July,
2006) and also increased for the month. There are about 10,942
homes sold in 2007 year to date. When divided between 12,000+
agents that's an average of less than one home sold per agent
in seven months!
The Absorption Rate (the number of homes for sale 26,018 divided by
the monthly closed sales 1,354), which is a key indicator of
overall market health, shows there is currently a 19.2 month
(over a year and a half) supply of homes on the market! This is the
highest number I've ever experienced. Another concern is
that “New Contracts" (a predictor of closed sales for the next
month or two) fell dramatically again to the lowest number in
the thirteen month period.
We are starting to see more
homes being rented (but there's a major oversupply of rentals too)
and more "short sales" (sellers who need debt forgiveness from
their lender to reduce the loan pay-off to make the sale work).
Also, the price reductions still seem to
be increasing and the number of vacant homes is very
substantial. Buyers are entering the market to buy at the
lower prices, but it's the lowest priced homes or the nicest homes
in the neighborhood at near the lowest prices that are
selling.
I
believe with the loan crisis and with mortgage companies
including major corporations exiting the home loan business
daily, we are going to see continued market
stagnation during the last quarter of 2007 and into
2008. I'm changing my forecast on when we see improvement to
late 2008, and realistically into 2009 before we have a balance in
the market. It's a tough market but a few homes are
selling. It's a matter of time and price, and keeping your
home in absolute move-in condition to attract the buyers that are
in the market today. On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team,
we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs
throughout the Central Florida area. Feel free to contact me
directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate
questions you may have.
Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI,
e-PRO
Realty Executives
Orlando
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