Archives
September 2007
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New Home Sales & Prices Drop Sharply
The recent news from several new home builders has continued to show the effects of the housing situation
that is affecting many areas of the US. Here's a link to a NY Times article from the Business Section on September 28,
2007 with news about the struggles of several new home builders in this current real estate market: Home
Sales and Prices Fall Sharply
With sales dropping to the slowest pace in seven years and prices showing the biggest
monthly decline in since 1970 (that's 37 years ago!), there are certainly some buying opportunities to be found in the
market. What a great time to buy when we have soft prices, generous incentives from most builders, and interest rates
near historic lows!
On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team, we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs
throughout the Central Florida area. Buying or selling, we are here to serve. Feel free to contact me directly at (407)
869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate questions you may have.
Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Realty Executives Orlando
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August, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis and
Commentary
The overall market has continued to "drag along
the bottom" but sales are staying in a narrow range as they have all year. We have not yet experienced a drop-off like we
usually do when school starts each fall so that is encouraging. It might be that there are always a certain minimum number
of people who need to buy a home regardless of the market conditions. This bottom threshold appears to have been reached,
or at least we are close to the bottom and appear to be holding fairly level.
Sales (unadjusted) for the month were 1,343 homes
sold, down 40.2% compared to last years 2,249 sales in August, 2006 according to the latest Market Pulse Report. This
report includes homes sold in Orange and Seminole Counties and compares August 2006 to August 2007 real estate activity.
The report covers listings, sales, days on market & important statistics regarding real estate transactions in Orange
and Seminole Counties comparing and showing trends for the past thirteen months.
Here's a link to this month's full
report: www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/Market-Pulse-9-07.pdf
The active listing numbers (homes for sale) increased slightly to
26,313 homes for sale in the two county area. This is another new record high inventory level in Central Florida real
estate, and a record which has been broken monthly for eight consecutive months. While homes for sale increased, homes
sold during the month again declined. The number of Realtors in our Association is higher than one year ago (12,501
members in 2007 compared to 12,114 in August, 2006). There are about 12,455 sales on this report which sold in 2007 year
to date. When divided between 12,501 agents that's an average of one home sold per agent in eight months!
The Absorption Rate (the number of homes for sale 26,313 divided by
the monthly closed sales 1,343), which is a key indicator of overall market health, shows there is currently a 19.6 month
(over a year and a half) supply of homes on the market! This is again the highest ratio I've seen in the years I've been
calculating this market indicator. Another concern is that "New Contracts" (a predictor of closed sales for the next month
or two) fell dramatically again to the lowest number in the thirteen month period.
We are starting to see more homes being rented (but there's a major
oversupply of rentals too) and more "short sales" (sellers who need debt forgiveness from their lender to reduce the loan
pay-off to make the sale work). Also, the price reductions are still very prevalent and the number of vacant homes is
substantial. Buyers are entering the market to buy at the lower prices, and the trend continues that the lowest priced
homes or the nicest homes in the neighborhood at near the lowest prices are selling.
I believe we are going to see a sluggish market during the last
quarter of 2007 and well into 2008. It might well be late 2008 before we see any significant jump in sales, and
realistically into 2009 before we have a balance in the market. It's a tough market for sure but some homes ARE selling.
It's a matter of time and price, and keeping your home in absolute move-in condition to attract the buyers that are in the
market today. On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team, we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs
throughout the Central Florida area. Feel free to contact me directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real
estate questions you may have.
Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO
Realty Executives Orlando
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July, 2007 Market Pulse Analysis
and Commentary
Unfortunately the summer market "bounce" we had hoped for has not
happened. The month of July had the fewest sales of any month
so far this year. That's not what we were hoping for being
that this is generally a good selling time while school is
out. Sales (unadjusted) for the month were 1,354
homes sold, down 42.6% compared to last years 2,361 sales
in July of 2006 according to the latest Market Pulse
Report. This report includes homes sold in Orange and Seminole
Counties and covers July 2006 to July 2007 real estate
activity. The report covers listings, sales, days on
market & important statistics regarding real estate
transactions in Orange and Seminole Counties comparing and showing
trends for the past thirteen months. Here's a link to this month's
report: www.orlrealtor.com/Pages/marketpulse/Market-Pulse-8-07.pdf
You may also view this monthly information anytime at www.MartysBlog.com.
The active listing numbers (homes for sale) increased slightly to
26,018 homes for sale in the two county area. This is another new
record high inventory level in Central Florida real estate, and a
record which has been broken monthly for seven consecutive months.
While homes for sale increased, homes sold during the month again
declined. The number of Realtors in our Association is higher than
one year ago (12,668 members in 2007 compared to 11,939 in July,
2006) and also increased for the month. There are about 10,942
homes sold in 2007 year to date. When divided between 12,000+
agents that's an average of less than one home sold per agent
in seven months!
The Absorption Rate (the number of homes for sale 26,018 divided by
the monthly closed sales 1,354), which is a key indicator of
overall market health, shows there is currently a 19.2 month
(over a year and a half) supply of homes on the market! This is the
highest number I've ever experienced. Another concern is
that “New Contracts" (a predictor of closed sales for the next
month or two) fell dramatically again to the lowest number in
the thirteen month period.
We are starting to see more
homes being rented (but there's a major oversupply of rentals too)
and more "short sales" (sellers who need debt forgiveness from
their lender to reduce the loan pay-off to make the sale work).
Also, the price reductions still seem to
be increasing and the number of vacant homes is very
substantial. Buyers are entering the market to buy at the
lower prices, but it's the lowest priced homes or the nicest homes
in the neighborhood at near the lowest prices that are
selling.
I
believe with the loan crisis and with mortgage companies
including major corporations exiting the home loan business
daily, we are going to see continued market
stagnation during the last quarter of 2007 and into
2008. I'm changing my forecast on when we see improvement to
late 2008, and realistically into 2009 before we have a balance in
the market. It's a tough market but a few homes are
selling. It's a matter of time and price, and keeping your
home in absolute move-in condition to attract the buyers that are
in the market today. On behalf of the entire Marty Hunt Team,
we look forward to assisting you with any real estate needs
throughout the Central Florida area. Feel free to contact me
directly at (407) 869-7779 or (888) 412-8681 with any real estate
questions you may have.
Marty Hunt, Realtor®, ABR, CRS, GRI,
e-PRO
Realty Executives
Orlando
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