OLYMPIA – Washington State continues to defy national trends in home prices, lending, and sales. Nationally home prices are down; sub-prime mortgages and foreclosures are up. But in Washington State, foreclosures and sub-prime lending occurred at lower rates than just about anywhere in the nation. Home appreciation in Washington also continues to out-perform the rest of the nation with year-to-year price increases every quarter since the spring of 1995.

“The housing market in Washington State is strong. Demand for median-priced homes, in particular, continues to outstrip supply – and that’s pushing home prices up,” said Steve Francks, Washington Realtors Chief Executive Officer.

According to the Center for Real Estate Research (CRER) at Washington State University, home prices in Washington have increased an average of 8.1 percent since the same time last year. Many counties, however, have experienced price hikes much higher: Chelan 29.8 percent, Okanogan 24.5 percent; Douglas, 22.2 percent; and Lewis 19.3.

As of mid-June, sub-prime, adjustable-rate loans represented 20 percent of loans nationally, but just 6 percent of home loans in Washington. Of those mortgages, 5 percent in Washington were delinquent, compared with 8.9 percent nationwide. The largest increase in foreclosure activity was in Nevada (166 percent); while the smallest increase was in Washington State (18 percent).

“In other words,” said Francks, “ours is a stable and responsible market place. “What we really should be asking is what can we do to provide more home choices so that people don’t have to consider risky loans in the first place?”

According to the WSU CRER, a “housing squeeze” continues to define the Central Puget Sound market, where primary concerns are “lack of space to meet demands and inability to deliver affordable housing.” The CRER’s “Central Puget Sound Real Estate Research Report” notes that the housing market isn’t keeping pace with the growth of population, which is continuing to increase at 1.8 percent per year. In spring 2007, the median price for homes in King County rose to $470,000 and to $376,000 in Snohomish County.

Francks said the key to stability in the residential real estate market is balance, where balance is about a six month supply (or inventory) of homes available on the market at any given time. In Washington there is currently about a four- month supply. In many states where prices are slumping, the inventory is about 11 months. Francks explained that home prices are not likely to fall in Washington until an over-supply of homes exists — a situation unlikely to occur as long as the state’s population is growing at such a robust rate.

State demographers expect Washington’s population to increase by nearly one million over the present decade and to reach 6.8 million by 2010. About two thirds of the growth is due to in-migration; the rest is a result of the growth of families now living in Washington.

“The housing squeeze is forcing some families to take on more debt than they should. Others compensate by accepting longer commutes than they want. Neither is a good solution,” said Francks. “We need to provide a variety of home choices to meet changing market demands.”

Francks said communities should use realistic population-increase estimates to plan for the number of homes that will actually be needed. Other solutions include making better use of the land that is available for homes with cottage housing and accessory dwelling units, and using innovative design to enable each acre of land to comfortably accommodate more homes.

Washington Realtors represent approximately 170,000 homebuyers and the interests of more than 2 million homeowners throughout the state. Realtors’ top public policy priority is building communities that have a strong economy, attractive home choices, great schools and parks, safe neighborhoods, and good transportation choices.

For more information, please contact Barb Lally, 943-3100, ext. 122.

"Mortgage Meltdown..." "Foreclosures Rates Skyrocketing..." "Subprime Nightmare!"

Like Chicken Little running around screaming "The sky is falling!" the current media attention on foreclosures is overwhelmingly pessimistic. The media suggests that foreclosures everywhere are hitting record highs. Realtors and consumers alike are getting anxious with these doom and gloom headlines screaming at them each week. So how bad is it really? What is the state of foreclosures today in Washington and how does that compare to national statistics? Is it better or worse than it was five or even ten years ago.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) which tracks data on 85 percent of all mortgages in the US (approximately 44 million) the current foreclosure rate for Washington Stat as of June 2007 is .49 percent, whereas nationally it is 1.40 percent. This means that Washington is currently doing 65 percent better better than the national rate.

The national average has increased in recent years but those numbers are being driven by only a handful of states according to Doug Duncan, MBA's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Business Development.

"What continues to drive the national numbers, however, is what is happening in the states of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Were it not for the increases in foreclosure starts in those four states, we would have seen a nationwide drop in the rate of foreclosure filings. Thirty four states had decreases in their rates of new foreclosures and the increases were very modest in the states with increases, other than those four," Duncan said.

Washington State is currently in slightly better shape foreclosure-wise than it was ten years ago, while nationally the foreclosure rates are worse. Looking at the second quarter in 1997 Washington foreclosures were at .50 percent which was 54 percent better than the national rate of 1.08 percent in 1997.

For the past 10 years Washington has remained well under national average and in recent years the gap between national foreclosure rates and Washington's foreclosure rates has increased. Washington foreclosure rates are in fact trending down over the past 10 years while, even with all its ups and downs, the national foreclosure trend has remained fairly constant.