Where is that Housing Bubble : ARDELL's Seattle Real Estate Blog

ARDELL's Seattle Real Estate Blog

Jun. 14, 2006 - Where is that Housing Bubble

I've been in a stats mood today in between painting my house and waiting for the results of a home inspection. I like to hang on to the concrete things of the world, like painting a room or pulling statistics on home sales, when I am waiting for something to happen that is out of my control. If the sale falls apart on inspection, my buyer client gets a second chance at the house. I don't like wishing that someone else's sale falls apart...but that's where I am today. The benefit to you is lots of stats!.

OK, where the heck is that Buyer's Market? King County Stats say it is in the high end, but the builders keep building up there in the nose bleed section.

I don't usually compile stats by hand for all of King County, but if I paint any more bright colors around my house it's going to start looking like a carnival in here. Oh yeah, it already does.

OVER FIVE MILLION - 45 FOR SALE - 2 STI - 4 PENDING - ONLY 6 SOLD IN SIX MONTHS

I WENT THE EXTRA MILE ON THIS ONE AND ONLY 34 SOLD IN 18 MOS, SO 45 IS A LOT!!

FOUR TO FIVE MILLION - 20 FOR SALE - 1 STI - 4 PENDING - ?? SOLD IN SIX MONTHS

3 TO 4 MILLION - 68 FOR SALE - 6 STI - 9 PENDING - 18 SOLD IN SIX MONTHS = BUBBLE

2-3 MILLION - 151 FOR SALE - 13 STI - 28 PENDING - 78 SOLD IN SIX MONTHS

1.75 TO 2 MIL - 116 FOR SALE - 12 STI - 36 PENDING - 70 SOLD IN SIX MONTHS

1.5 TO 1.75 MIL - 156 FOR SALE - 16 STI- 38 PENDING - 83 SOLD IN SIX MONTHS

1.25 - 1.5 MIL - 230 FOR SALE - 23 STI - 70 PENDING - 189 SOLD IN SIX MONTHS

1 MIL TO 1.25 MIL - 236 FOR SALE - 17 STI - 97 PENDING - 330 SOLD IN SIX MONTHS

OF THE 330 SOLD, 169 WERE 1 MILLION TO 1.1 MILLION

The amount sold seems to follow a natural progression, it's the amount on market that seems out of whack.

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Jun. 15, 2006 - re: Where is that Housing Bubble

Posted by Bonnie Erickson

Ardell, Are you telling me with these stats that you have nothing on the market under 1 million? Man alive, I could retire if I sold ONE of those. We poor peons in Minnesota are selling 6.5 houses to make the same you make on one! I'm impressed! Bonnie

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Jun. 15, 2006 - re: Where is that Housing Bubble

Posted by ARDELL DellaLoggia

Bonnie, In my stats category you will see that we have lots of inventory under a million. I was just pointing out the "bubble" areas, which are at the high end of the spectrum.

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Jun. 19, 2006 - re: Where is that Housing Bubble

Posted by Anonymous

Was there less of a bubble at the top one year ago? Two years ago?

They always say that bubbles form at the top before going on down the chain, 6 five mil+ houses sold in the last six months would seem to be a signifcant down turn from the 28 sold in the previous 12!

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Jun. 19, 2006 - re: Where is that Housing Bubble

Posted by ARDELL DellaLoggia

Significant downturns happen from the bottom up. When there are fewer first time buyers, there are fewer move up buyers, and it affects all market levels. I do think the top is more top heavy than usual. It's harder to do stats from last year, but I'll work on it. Current stats are easy because you just use the counter on the mls in different price ranges. To compare it to last year, takes a lot more in depth research. But I'll get back to you on that.
Seems a lot of the bubble is caused by so many homes being torn down and new homes being built at the highest of prices. I don't think there were as many last year,but I'll let you know.

Edited by Ardell on June 20, 2006 at 8:08 pm

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Jul. 13, 2006 - re: Where is that Housing Bubble

Posted by Anonymous

Hey Ardell, could you do a July update of these numbers?

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Jul. 13, 2006 - re: Where is that Housing Bubble

Posted by ARDELL DellaLoggia

Yes I can do a July update...I did a briefer one, but would be happy to do one exactly in this format. later tonight or tomorrow. May I ask who is asking? Just a first name so I can tell the difference between several "anonymous" commenters. Thanks.

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Jul. 14, 2006 - re: Where is that Housing Bubble

Posted by ARDELL DellaLoggia

I responded to your request for an update, by adding a new post today following this same format, so we can keep the "as of" date intact. I don't have a "strike out" feature in this blog format, so I put ?? in one area that was obviously a typo in this original article. See today's post for explanation **.

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ARDELL DellaLoggia On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle. Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com