Dec. 14, 2008 - SFH Redmond WA 98052 - Housing Market Conditions

19 month supply of houses in the over $750,000 price segment

3rd in the series "Every Picture Tells a Story, Don't It?" -  Redmond 98052 - SFH.

The red segments represent Homes For Sale (254) For the key code, you need to read the segments clockwise from the top, or simply refer to the explanation below the graph.

Breaking it into 3rds, you have about 1/3 in the under $550,000 segment, another third or so in the $550,000 to $750,000 segment and the remaining third in the over $750,000 market.

All blue segments represent Pending Sales

All green segments represent Closed in the last 90 days  

Remember the green sold portion is 90 days of sales.   The pending is currently pending regardless of when the property went into contract.  Let's assume all pendings are not going to close and use 1/3 of the green portion for calculating Absorption Rate of current inventory (red segments)

Under $550,000 = a 7 month supply of homes (89 divided by (38 divided by 3) = 7)

$550,000 to $750,000 = an 8.3 month supply of homes (83 divided by (30 divided by 3) = 8.3)

Over $750,000 = a 19 month supply of homes (82 divided by (13 divided by 3) = 19 )

What you want to think about here is if you think you are going to list your home  for sale after the first of the year for $850,000 in Redmond 98052...what are you going to do to reduce the odds of selling in 19 months time?  Not many people want it to take almost 2 years to sell their home.  But you have 82 people in front of you before you even get into the market and only 4-5 have been selling every month for the last 90 days. That's a long way to go to absorb those 82 homes before counting what comes on market after Jan. 1, 2009.

If you did absorption rate of hmes in 98052 by dividing total for sale of 254 by the total number pending of 43, you would come up with an overall absorption rate of only 5.9 months of supply.  If you use 1/3rd of sold in 90 you would have a 9.4 month supply.  But I think the picture above is more transparent as to the odds of selling in the near future for individual home owners.

Note: one of the resons the numbers look better (and not realistically so) when you use pendings, is that many pendings are sitting for longer than 30 day periods due to short sales and new construction.

(required disclosure) All Kirkland 98052 Home Sale stats above are hand compiled by ARDELL and not compiled, published or verified by NWMLS.