Aug. 12, 2008 - Seattle Real Estate - King County

Below is a graph I saw on Seattle Bubble that I found fascinating and am reposting here with Tim's permission.

 I love this graph as it makes me want to say "Do you feel like a Boston today?" the way that Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry said "Do you feel lucky today, punk?"

I will shortly be posting my 12 months forward predictions on Rain City Guide, and will be linking to this post.  Seattle Bubble is pretty much the only source of info that I find of value as to data.  My interpretation of that data is different, but the data is invaluable.

What you are seeing above is where other markets have gone as to pricing, and yes, I do feel like a Boston, so maybe that makes me a punk :)  I only disagree with Seattle Bubble in that they are tracking markets from their previous peak, and I think you have to track all markets from July of 2007 forward.  We are not a lagging market.  There are two completely different components of the market downturn, and Seattle totally escaped the first which is showon on the graph above for those markets that turned down in 2005.

What is very important is how all of these markets react to the Mortgage Meltdown that happened simultaneously nationwide, and not how they performed from their peak of two years ago.  I expect cities that turned down in 2005 to do better than Seattle in that regard, because they have bargains to sell, and we essentially do not, by relative comparison.

See Rain Cty Guide for my 12 month  forward predictions and market commentary.

Aug. 12, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Oct. 6, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Interesting breakdown of the stats.   I have a question.  I understand that cities that have fallen during the first downturn should be somewhat insulated from the second downturn.

Do you think that markets that didnt experience much appreciation pre 2005 will be somewhat insulated from the second downturn.

Ki

Austin Real Estate | Austin Real Estate Blog

Oct. 6, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Ki,

Our market which experienced much appreciation post April of 2005 did not have as much appreciation as other markets did from 1998 until 2005.

The second downtown is about the mortgage crisis, so I can't imagine any market being insulated from it.

You can answer the question yourself by tracking volume.  What was your area's volume in the first half of 2005 vs. 2006 vs. 2007 vs. 2008.  If you do not see a significant downturn in volume in the first half of 2008 from prior years, then perhaps the mortgage crisis will not have much of an impact.  But if your volume in the first half of 2008 is down 30% or more vs. those previous years, then no...you are not insulated from the second downturn.

Oct. 6, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Looking back at this chart I'm wondering what's up with Boston?  I just emailed my friend there earlier this evening when Boston won in the bottom of the ninth.  I should have asked him.

Nov. 12, 2008 - RE: Seattle Real Estate - King County

Hi,

Great post comparing whats been happening among the major US cities. I'm a Downtown Vancouver Realtor and we are experiencing some softening in our real estate market though not quite as much as in the US.