Jan. 1, 2008 - Seattle Real Estate Sales 2006

Just in passing, it seems to me that 20% Seattle Home Sales happen in the first quarter of the year.  I'll check that again after all the stats are posted.

One of the benefits of posting all of this data is that if that 20% holds true for 2005, 2006 and 2007, then we may be able to determine from the first quarter of 2008 whether the trend is up or down 2007 to 2008.

I'm skipping the pie charts, as I don't find them valuable without inventory and in escrow stats.  I'll bring them back as we do 2007 in it's entirety and throughout 2008.  The benefit of the pie is for absorption rates, so you can project based on which months are in front of us, and their historical significance to annual sales, how many months of supply are on hand.

So far I'm seeing 20% or so of real estate sells in the first quarter of the year, 28% in the second and third quarters (each - that's 57% combined) and 23% in the last quarter.  Of course we want to see 2005, 2006 AND 2007 before picking out barometers for measuring 2008 as it unfolds.  I know that doesn't quite "add up" but carrying the fractions actually puts the last quarter at 22-23% of a year's sales.

I'm throwing in this one pie chart because I think it's curious that the condo sales picked up so strongly at the end of the year, and this may become meaningful later.  Since I'm seeing condo sales staying stronger as Single Family Home Sales weaken at almost three times the rate as condo sales, predicting the two markets separately in 2008 will likele be necessary to be more accurate.