Oct. 12, 2009 - North Seattle Home Prices

In the previous post we looked at the volume of homes sold in Seattle North of Downtown. Here we look at median price per square foot.  At the end of the 3rd quarter we are closer to 1st quarter 2006 than 2nd quarter 2006 as to price, but up about 6.4% from $233 in the 1st quarter of 2009. Even in up years, 4th quarter pricing tends to fall from 3rd quarter to 4th due to cyclical factors. With the $8,000 homebuyer credit expiring (unless it is extended) we would expect to see a significant change downward by 1st quarter of 2010.

Question is, will it fall below the $233 of the first quarter? In Seattle SOUTH of Downtown, I think that's a given. But North of Downtown, not necessarily so.

Below I speculate in the green and yellow lines where we might have been without the housing credit, much like I did in the previous post as to volume. The green line here is where prices might be without the stock market woes or the homebuyer credit., so I added a yellow line that balances the net effect of both. The yellow line suggests the market would have been flat in North Seattle at $252 to $253 per square foot in 2009 without undue influence.

Given prices are at $248, if we don't lose too much in the 1st and 4th quarters, we may see prices holding into 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010 in the $245 to $250 range.

In the above example I support my own previous statements that home prices in the 1st quarter would have been  higher, if the market wasn't dragged so low when the homebuyer credit was announced as a "maybe" coming. You may recall that the credit at that point was potentially shifting from a $7,500 15 year interest free loan...to an outright credit of $8,000 with no repayment. Clearly a change worth waiting for and the unprecedented low volume rate of 1st Quarter 2009 proves that out in the previous post.

(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)