Dec. 13, 2008 - SFH Kirkland 98033 - Housing Market Conditions

Over $1.2M = a 49.3  month supply of homes (115 divided by (7 divided by 3) = 49.3)

1st in the series "Every Picture Tells a Story, Don't It?" -  Kirkland 98033 - SFH.

The red segments represent SFH For Sale (total 336).  For the key code, you need to read the segments clockwise from the top, or simply refer to the explanation below the graph.

Breaking it into 3rds, you have about 1/3 in the over $1.2M range, another third or so in the $500,000 to $800,000 segment and the remaining third is split 1/3 in the under $500,000 market and 2/3rds in the $800,000 to $1.2M range.

All blue segments represent Pending Sales

All green segments represent Closed in the last 90 days

Remember the green sold portion is 90 days of sales.   The pending is currently pending regardless of when the property went into contract.  Let's assume all pendings are not going to close and use 1/3 of the green portion for calculating Absorption Rate of current inventory (red segments)

Under $500,000 = a 6.7 month supply of homes (38 divided by (17 divided by 3) = 6.713)

$500,000 to $800,000 = a 19.6 month supply of homes (111 divided by (17 divided by 3) = 19.61)

$800,000 to $1.2M = a 21.6 month supply of homes (72 divided by (10 divided by 3) = 21.62)

Over $1.2M = a 49.3  month supply of homes (115 divided by (7 divided by 3) = 49.3)

What you want to think about here is if you think you are going to list your home for sale after the first of the year at $1.6M in Kirkland 98033...what are you going to do to reduce the odds of selling in 50 months time?  Not many people want it to take over 4 years to sell their house.  But you have 115 people in front of you before you even get into the market and 50 of those are brand new homes built in 2008.  Only TWO of the homes pending and sold in the last 90 days are new houses in this price range.  That's a long way to go to absorb those 50 new houses without counting what comes on market after Jan. 1, 2009.

If you did absorption rate of SFH 98033 by dividing total houses for sale of 336 by the total number pending of 19, you would come up with an overall absorption rate of 17.6 months of supply.  If you used 1/3rd of sold in 90 you would have a 20.6 month supply.  But I think the picture above is more transparent as to the odds of selling in the near future for individual home owners.

See next post for the 98033 condo market.

(required disclosure) All Kirkland 98033 home stats hand compiled by ARDELL and not compiled, published or verified by NWMLS.

Dec. 19, 2008 - RE: SFH Kirkland 98033 - Housing Market Conditions

Hi Ardell,

Good analysis of the Kirkland market.  One has to wonder about all of the homes built inKirkland since the early 90's that are now priced over $1 million.  Kirkland has a huge number of homes that fall into that category, whether they are on the market or not right now.  I expect it will continue to be a tougher, more competitive price range in the future golofor that reason.