May. 13, 2007 - Regarding Market Stats and Graphs

"Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS." I hand calculate all of my stats, I compile them and I publish them. I note the source as NWMLS, as that is the system I use to get the raw data.

Jan. 30, 2010 - King County 2009 Median Home Prices

Median Home Prices in King County vary. Also there is a huge variance between a newer or remodeled home, and an original condition 1960's home. 

Below I am showing the median for all homes, and then the median for those that have "granite" in the marketing remarks. A majority or newer and remodeled homes have granite, and most times the agent notes granite as a feature of the home in the remarks section. So I'm hoping this sorts values for you a bit and gives you a range of value. 

Median price means half sold for less and half for more than the numbers shown (approx) to calculate the "median" price. The final number is the number of homes sold and the "ALL" homes includes those with granite counters. This will also give you a rough idea of what % of the total homes sold were newer or remodeled.

Redmond Home Prices - Median Home Price - Sold 2009 -:

With granite counters - $580,000 - 294 sold

All Redmond Home Prices $505,000 - 779 sold

Bellevue Home Prices - Median Home Price - Sold 2009 -:

With granite counters - $667.500 - 236 sold

All Bellevue Home Prices $550,000 - 843 sold

Kirkland Home Prices - Median Home Price - Sold 2009 -:

With granite counters - $580,000 - 191 sold

All Kirkland Home Prices $479,000 - 633 sold

Queen Anne Home Prices - Median Home Price - Sold 2009 -:

With granite counters - $610,000 - 58 sold

All Queen Anne Home Prices $615,000 - 255 sold

Green Lake Home Prices - Median Home Price - Sold 2009 -:

With granite counters - $360,000 - 131 sold

All Green Lake Home Prices $395,000 - 322 sold

I will revisit this as we are obviously picking up the difference between townhomes on the Eastside vs. Townhomes in Seattle. The price with granite is higher on the Eastside, as I would expect. In Seattle the reverse is happening because many of the newer "single family homes" are newer townhomes vs Eastside where townhomes are condos and not single family homes, for the most part.

Jan. 14, 2010 - What you need to now about the Real Estate Market

The Real Estate Market in King County is running at 2005 levels. Whether you are thinking about buying a home or selling a home, this is important for you to know.

If you want to sell your house for more than you paid for it, you likely had to have purchased it before 2005. 

If you are a home buyer and want to know if someone's asking price is realistic, knowing when they bought the house, vs what they owe on it, is also important. Someone may have refinanced after they purchased their home. What is owed on it is not as relevant as what they paid for it and when they bought it.

Earlier this week we talked about where home prices may be going in 2010. 

If you are a seller, you likely want to get on market before the home buyer credit expires at the end of April. If you are a buyer who is eligible for that credit, you likely want to do the same. 

If you are not eligible for the credit, you may want to wait until a few months after the credit expires, to see if home prices recede as a result. 

Looking at the graph below, it is unlikely that prices will go up into LATE 2006 levels or down into EARLY 2004 levels. So that graph is likely the big picture for the foreseeable future.

Jan. 12, 2010 - Where are Home Prices Going?

2010 King County Home Prices

Below is a graph of where I do NOT think they are going, which is into 2004 price ranges. Earlier today I wrote a post describing my hopes and fears for King County Home Prices. For the most part I expect them to go up and down 5% from where they were in June 2009. I am restating that as a month vs a dollar amount, so that we can apply the valuations to various neighboring cities like Bellevue, Redmond and Kirkland to name a few.

While I posted the graph below on Rain City Guide, I wanted to keep a copy for myself for future reference. Expect the market to stay in this high (2007) to low (2004) range for years to come. 

(Required Disclosure - Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service)

Jan. 4, 2010 - Home Prices on The Eastside

2009 Home Prices in Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond - combining 98033, 98034, 98052, 98007 and 98008 without a lake view.

One Story median price $362,000 - 253 sold

Split Entry - $395,000 - 134 sold

One Story with a basement - $405,000 - 68 sold

Tri-Level - $425,000 - 81 sold

2 Story - $585,000 - 468 sold

Two Story Breakdown:

$460,000 built before 1980

$530,000 built 1980s or 1990s (no price difference)

$580,000 built 2000- 2005

$652,000 built 2005 or later

Add a basement to that newer 2 story house and the median price goes up to $775,000

Add a lake view to that 2 story with a basement and the median goes up to $1.2 million

(Required Disclosure - Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service) 

Jan. 4, 2010 - Seattle Home Prices 2009 - Townhomes

Townhome Prices in Seattle - 2009:

98103 - 168 sold - Medians: Price $340,000 - sf 1,460

34 currently for sale in 98103 with a median asking price of $349,450 - sf 1,505

98115 -   33 sold - Medians: Price $399,000 - sf 1,450

7 currently for sale in 98115 with a median asking price of $429,900- sf 1,410

98117 -   40 sold - Medians:  Price $332,500 - sf 1,400

12 currently for sale in 98117 with a median asking price of $341,975 - sf 1,310

98105 -   53 sold - Medians: Price $350,000 - sf  1,245

9 currently for sale in 98105 with a median asking price of $455,000 - 1,520 sf

98107 -   92 sold - Medians: Price $371,550 - sf  1,484

12 currently for sale in 98107 with median asking price of $394,500 - 1,447 sf

Townhome considerations:

Busy Road? Walk to shops? Is the 3rd bedroom really a bedroom? Do you access your front door from an alley? Are the closets big enough? Do all three bedrooms have easy access to a bathroom with a tub or shower? Do you feel like you are taking your driver's license test when trying to get in and out of your garage?

I'm not going to do a 10 year graph of townhome prices because they are a relatively new thing in Seattle and as you can see from the info above, supply and demand is a factor. High inventory creates lower prices. Low inventory creates higher prices.

(Required Disclosure - Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service) 

Jan. 4, 2010 - Ravenna Bryant - Seattle Home Prices

Home Prices in Seattle 98115 for the past decade are largely different from the pattern of 98103 and 98117.  If you go back to the zip code map that I posted first in this series of home price and volume tracxking posts, it may offer some rationale for the huge variance.

The neighborhoods in 98115 start at Green Lake with Ravenna Roosevelt and Maple Leaf neighborhoods and extends to Lake Washington and pricier neighborhoods like Sand Point and View Ridge. In between you have Bryant, Wedgwood...we'll throw in Hawthorne Hills for good measure. Consequently the variance in prices in this zip code is beyond "normal".

To understand the stats for 98115, you need to apply the changes in mortgage financing over the decade from 2000 through 2009. More on that after we look at the actual numbers.

Volume dropped off significantly and continuously from the 1st half of 2006 through the first half of 2009. Largely different from any other market I have researched.

Median Prices did not follow the same pattern.

What you are seeing here more than shift in prices is the market shifting from high end homes to lower priced housing in the same zip code.

If you are planning to buy or sell in 98115 you will need to crunch the numbers very carefully beyond what you are seeing here. There are still many sellers in the high end who will hope to come back on market at peak prices.

While median prices in many areas have stablilized, looking at 98115 as "a market" suggests that this area may continue to fall another 5% to 10% depending on the properties in the mix. The higher priced side of this zip code likely has more downward adjustment through 2010 and even 2011. My best guess is there is a lot of "Shadow Inventory" in this particular mix. People who did not have to sell and are waiting for a better time to sell.

Back to what you need to know about financing. When it comes to homes priced at $425,000 and under, the financing of today is largely the same as it was in 2000 through the first half of 2003. The huge boost in prices in this zip code from 2003 through the first half of 2007 was fueled by loose lending standards. That is pretty much true in all of the Seattle Area, but moreso in areas that have high end properties than those with low median prices.  

The volume boost in the 2nd half of 2009 was largely fueled by the $8,000 first time home buyer credit which did not help high end neighborhoods at all. The shift away for jumbo loan financing has not yet played out in this zip code, so if you are buying on the East side of this Zip Code, be sure to run your stats on homes from $200,000 under the price at which you are buying (or selling) and do not rely on the stats as a whole as your guide. Do not look at your neighborhood only, expand your stats to other areas and competition neighborhoods in that price range. Being myopic is not the way to go in 98115. You need to apply common sense vs. "traditional" methods when evaluating Ravenna vs. View Ridge.

(Required Disclosure - Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service)

Jan. 1, 2010 - North King County & Eastside Home Prices

North Seattle and Eastside Home Prices.  Below are the areas I will attempt to define with regard to price, and how prices have changed in the last 10 years, by zip code in several posts today, this New Year's Day 1/1/2010. Once I complete them separately, I will overlay areas that tend to move in groups, and value off of one another.

For those not familiar with the area, the central water is Lake Washington and the cities to the right are called The Eastside. I tend to define The Eastside as to values from the central point of Microsoft main campus which falls at 98007 and 98052 meeting point. On the Seattle side, I define prices in relation to Green Lake which on the map below is the water "spot" that falls in 98103 and borders 98115.

While people often think an agent "service area" is either Seattle or Eastside, my client services tend to focus on either side of the 520 bridge which runs across the lake from Green Lake and surrounds on the Seattle side and Kirkland and surrounds on The Eastside, and around the top of the lake.

I say "around the top of the lake, but usually I'm running up north from Green Lake through Shoreline and then north of Bellevue 98007 to Kirkland, Redmond, Bothell Woodinville. From there I'm more likely to be in Issaquah and Sammamish than Medina and Clyde Hill.

Groupings might be 98117, 98103 and 98115 on the Seattle side then 98033, 98052 and 98007 and 98008 on The Eastside, with the surrounding areas falling outide of those main "value centers". I will define that more as we move through the valuation posts. We will be looking for both median home price and median price per square foot.

Dec. 25, 2009 - 2009 Home Prices in Bellevue

In 2009, 52 people were able to buy a home for $300,000 or less in Kirkland. 39 were able to buy a home in Redmond for $300,000 or less.

In Bellevue? Only 9 properties sold for $300,000 or less.

I have a bias toward 98007 and 98008. Close to Microsoft Campus. Close to Crossroads. Close to Lake Sammamish. While I have done the stats in $100,000 increments to match my other posts, I actually like this area in the $350,000 to $450,000 price range for homes without a view. For newer homes in the $650,000 range I'm usually up on Education Hill. For a higher price in 98007 and 98008 I'd rather see a great view than more house for that extra money. But in the $450,000 give or take range, close to Microsoft, it's hard to beat this particular "neighborhood".

I've mixed things up a bit in the 98004 and 98005 market stats, as for homes priced at $700,000 or less these zip codes operate roughly the same, but massively different when you pass the $700,000 mark.

In 98004 you really have to watch your #FAIL rates. People have a tendency to think their homes are worth more than they are, and so price reductions prior to sale are more the norm than the exception. Look for short sales and bank owneds or prices relatively close to those levels. Study your comps very carefully and make sure you are comparing apples to apples. it's very easy to pay $900,000 for a house worth $825000 in 98004. There are some great homes and some great buys, but you really have to know what you are doing in this market. It's easy to be fooled.

87 failed attempts to sell 17 houses means your had 70 chances to be fooled into paying the wrong price. 43 failed attempts to sell 13 houses is not looking too good either. Study those 13 solds VERY carefully before making an offer in the $700,000 to $800,000 price range. Make sure the home you are buying offers an equivalent value.

98005 under $700,000 is a fairly comfortable market where it is hard to go wrong. In the graph above you see that 74 houses sold in 98004 and 70 houses below in 98005, but 98005 had a lower #Fail rate. Over $700,000, especially a lot over $700,000, you may be better off in 98004, so be sure to look at both.

T

If you are one of the lucky people to find a house for $500,000 or less, that you like, in 98004 and 98005, try to hold on to it for as long as you can. These homes even if not in the best shape, likely have a good opportunity for appreciation when the builders come back looking for lots. But that could take 7 to 10 years. 98004 and 98005 in the "lower" price ranges usually have more of a land play than those in 98007 and 98008. So take that into consideration if you are looking at homes in both areas at the same time.

98006...Honestly, it's a different "Bellevue" all together. Comparing 98006 to the other Zip Codes of Bellevue is like trying to compare Issaquah to Kirkland.

98006 scares me like Rose Hill in the upper price ranges scares me. Not sure why, but I don't go to either often, especially when the price gets over $500,000. I did find an awesome home for $300,000 in Rose Hill Kirkland with NO freeway noise this year. So I'm not saying never. But for some reason you rarely find me in 98006. Maybe I'll spend some time there this year to find out why...maybe not :)

If someone knows a really good reason to favor 98006 over the other zip codes in Bellevue, please feel free to post it in the comments for me and the readers. The few times I've been there it has been the T-House or the house across the street from the great house that backs up to the greenbelt. There are lots of great houses, but the ones that seem to turn over the most are the ones that have a shortcoming. So if you are looking there, make sure you are looking at ALL of the pros and cons of the house, and not just the houses around it.

Dec. 25, 2009 - Redmond Real Estate 2009

Redmond is showing a much stronger housing market than Kirkland in the previous post. The snapshot of Success and Failure graph shows the strongest sector to be the $400,000 to $500,000 price range and unlike Kirkland, most every price tier had a higher success vs. failure rate. To understand that you may have to read and study the Kirkland post.

I'm anxious to do the stats for Bellevue so that I can do a comparison post for The Eastside. The only thing that surprised me in the Redmond Single Family Home market in the graph above, is the over a million sector. Redmond just doesn't compete in the high end well, because the other areas with more high end also have water access or water views of Lake Washington or Lake Sammamish.

It boggles my mind how 53 people are still trying to sell for over a million dollars when there were 98 failed attempts and only 12 sold in the entire year for over a million dollars.

Let's take a look at Redmond condos.

When it comes to condos, the story is pretty much the same in that there is no truly well performing tier. Condos became more popular when people were priced out of the single family home market. But when you can buy a house at that price, the condo market suffers.

Remember that for the most part condos on The Eastside include townhomes. Redmond has many more newer townhomes with garages than Kirkland, so no surprise that the Redmond condo market is outperforming the Kirkland condo market.

Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Dec. 24, 2009 - Kirkland Real Estate 2009

The graph below is a snapshot of Success and Failure. 

It took 138 Failed attempts to sell a home at over $1.5 million in Kirkland in 2009 in order for 17 houses to be sold. That means you were 8 or 9 times more likely to Fail than to Succeed. If you are buying one of those homes, know that your odds of being able to sell that home in the future will be limited. Note that 49 people are trying to sell right now, and only 17 to 20 have been successful the entire year to date.

The odds are even as to Success vs. Failure in the $400,000 to $500,000 range where it took 109 Failed attempts for 109 homes to be sold.

$300,000 to $400,000 is the most popular Buy/Sell Zone with 169 sold, 41 Pending sales as of today, 59 people trying to sell and 121 Failed Attempts in 2009.

Not all Pendings will close. Some of the #FAIL are the same people who eventually sold after lowering their price. Some of those currently trying to sell may have FAILED at some other point during the year and re-listed at a new and lower price...but still no buyer.

#FAIL is a combination of Expired Listings, Cancelled Listings and "Sale Fail Release", meaning they made it to escrow...but not to closing.

In the Kirkland Condo Market, The #FAIL rate exceeded the SOLD/Success rate in every price range.

I will continue posting similar stats for other areas as a guide to various price ranges in different areas. It is generally a good idea to buy in an area where your price range is more popular. You may get a better deal if you buy where the #FAIL rate is high, but that will probably come back to bite you when it is time for you to sell.

Required Disclosure: Stats in this post are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.