"Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS." I hand calculate all of my stats, I compile them and I publish them. I note the source as NWMLS, as that is the system I use to get the raw data.
May. 25, 2009 - Difference in Home Value from Peak to Present
In the previous post, I was showing the % change in pricing. In the graph below you can see the current actual median price for a split entry home in these areas today, based on recent closed sales. Basically the same house has a different price, depending on where you buy it. You can pay more or less than these prices, as these are the median sold prices, meaning half the people may have paid more and half the people may have paid less, on average.
In the next post I will describe this home style in detail.
Below are the prices for this same home style back in the summer of 2007 when prices peaked for the most part. Since different areas peaked at different times, I used the medain price for April through July or so in 2007.
required disclosure Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS
May. 25, 2009 - King County % change in Home Values
As a result of all of the posts written yesterday below, and the ones I have done the math for but have yet to write above this post, I've come up with an approximate formula for Home PrIce Changes in portions King County. When calculating by School District, I can't do Seattle, because all of Seattle is the same school district. So this method is of no value.
But I can compare the School District results to King County as a whole. As you will see in the posts after this one, I have segregated a certain style of home that is fairly uniform from place to place. This gives us a % change for a similar product in different places.
This method puts:
Lake Washington School District down 16% from peak
Bellevue School District down 19% from peak
Issaquah School District down 22% from peak
Northshore, Renton and Federal Way School Districts down 25% from peak
King County as a whole down 28%
This method excludes new construction for the most part, as this style of home is rarely built in recent history. Consequently the % change in value is higher than numbers you might see that include new construction. It also excludes the added value of view considerations. It also excludes any pressure from the high end market priced over $800,000 by coincidence vs. design.
In some areas new construction pulls the median prices up, in some areas high end is suffering the most...consequently this analysis is in many cases the great equalizer of data sample.
Required disclosure Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS
May. 24, 2009 - King County Home prices peak and beyond
Let me explain this graph a bit, as I was looking for some specific trending into that is set up in the previous 3 or 4 posts about Median Home Prices by School District. One, I was looking for peak prices and each area peaked as to price at a different time. Since the question of current price as a relation to peak is relevant in many discussions about home prices, it's important to know when the area peaked,.
For those who didn't read the previous posts before getting to this one, parameters are no lake or mountain views and homes sold for less than a million dollars arranged by school district, but only to the extent that school district is in King County.
The beginning is December of 2006 through October of 2007. The next number "PYOY08" is the price a year from peak for each area. So for Bellevue School district that number is July of 08 to compare with the peak of July of 07. For Federal Way that peaked in March of 07, it's March of 08. For those that peaked in June, it's June. Wherever the one year point fell from peak, that's where the value is struck YOY one year after peak.
At the end I struck the median of Jan and Feb of 2009 and April and May of 2009. So where you see an increase in the previous posts for May of 2009, and don't see the same result here that is because I combined April and May closings to date. None of the May stats are for the whole month of May closings, obviously, because it is not yet the end of May. So to get a larger sample, I included all of April with May.
As usual, the final post on all of this work that I have been doing, will appear in Sunday Night Stats on Rain City Guide. Though I may have another here that shows each area's % change from peak to now and from 3/2005 to now from the first group of data and the high and low point. Those may appear in charts vs. graphs so you can more readily see the actual Median Price Per Square Foot numbers.
required disclosure Data is not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS
May. 24, 2009 - Home Values by School District recent 6 months
King County Home Prices by School District. In the graph below, I am sorting out the data from the end of the graph two posts below this one. Parameters are homes without view priced under a million dollars and the numbers are median price per square foot.
This graph shows a median upturn in May of 2009 for Lake Washington, Northshore and Renton school districts. I have another graph coming up that tells more of the story, but for those wondering, Federal Way recent downturn does appear to be about a lot of bank owned properties that went through a foreclosure. Issaquah and Bellevue, not. Virtually none, really. The downtown there is more about screaming deals from builders or from people who have owned a long time and had a lot of equity in their homes. Remember, these are School Districts, so Issaquah is really a lot of Sammamish here in the May numbers. Parts of Bellevue as a City are in Lake Washington as a School District, so it is important to note that these are School District vs. City classifications.
I have a new graph showing where these numbers are from the peak of each area, that I find more interesting, so I will end this post here with the graph.
required disclosure Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS
May. 23, 2009 - King County Home Prices by School District
The information in this graph is similar to that in the graph in the previous post, but I have consolidated the stats. Note - King County only
The rest of the criteria is identical except I calculated the data for March, April and May of each year as a single result. We can more easily see Renton and Northshore pulling together and Bellevue and Lake Washington pulling together. More as I calculate more data, i.e. volume, to see if volume is pushing on prices more than other facters, and foreclosures as part of that volume.
I need to take a long break as I have an appointment, but will try to get back to this later this evening.
required disclosre - Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS
May. 23, 2009 - Home Prices by School District in King County
This morning I started a study regarding median price per square foot by school district using Bellevue, Lake Washington, Issaquah, Northshore, Renton and Federal Way.
I removed water and mountain view considerations so view properties in the areas that have them didn't skew the data as to progression of prices, particularly as volume of sales diminished.
I cut off at a million dollars, assuming public schools and high priced homes might not have a correlation, given many would choose private schools in the upper tier of pricing.
I started in March of 2005 as I can't get data earlier than that by school district. The option to sort by school district drops off as sold property is moved to "the archives" during the month of Feb of 2005.
Other than the brief abnormality in April of 2005 in the Bellevue School District, there was a predictable pattern that went totally haywire in 2009. It looks like a horse race with everyone keeping a certain pace until the end when all hell breaks loose and the #2 horse pulls way in front of the #1 horse, and Horse #3 gets pooped out LONG before horse #1 and horse #2.'
The obvious, you get a lot more house for your money here vs. there, is of assistance to people trying to choose home and school district simultaneously. But I have to do a few more graphs to determine what is happening and why in the later stages of the graph.
Stay tuned - as this is a developing "story".
BE = Bellevue, LKW = Lake Washington, ISS = Issaquah, NTH = Northshore, REN = Renton and FED = Federal Way
(required disclosure - these statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS)
Slight increase YOY in the number of homes sold for $400,000 or less. In all other market segments, the rate of decline in home sales is increasing.
Slightly less than half of all homes for sale are in the $400,000 to $800,000 price range, leaving approximately 15% in the other three value segments.
Slightly less than half of all homes sold were also in the $400,000 to $800,000 price segment. The $400,000 and under segment is selling faster than new inventory can replace the homes sold. The over $800,000 price range holds approximately 30% of all homes in market, but only 11% of all homes sold.
(required disclosure) Statistics not compiled, posted or verified by NWMLS
Apr. 12, 2009 - Seattle Area Home Prices just prior to $8,000 Homebuyer Credit
Refer to the post below this one to get the full significance of this chart. Home prices at year end and early in 2009 remained unchanged as you can see in the chart below, until the stimulus package was signed by Obama. The % of 2009 Assessed Value of these homes taken just before the credit passed, remain at 10% below what they became after the credit was passed. Approximately 30 days or more beyond that date is used to gather data, to allow time for those transactions entered into after the credit passed, to close escrow.
Perhaps more surprising is that the closing in late March and early April came in at 100% on average of the 2009 Assessed Values. Not because of the 10% increase in pricing necessarily, as Spring Bump will create some upswing that may later come back down at the end of 2009. What is most surprising is that buyers are paying the new assessed values, which were at the time we first became aware of them, consider to be "inflated' prices. This market continues to surprise us.
(required disclosure) Information in charts is not compiled or verified by NWMLS.
Apr. 12, 2009 - 10% Increase in Sales Price as % of Assessed Value
In the chart below you can see that at the very end of 2008 these homes were selling at an average of 91.8% of the new 2009 Assessed Values. I removed the high and the low % and averaged the remaining 8 homes.
The homes that closed, in the same area, At the end of March and early April, which would reflect actions taken for the most part AFTER the $8,000 Stimulus Credit was passed, the prices jumped to an average of 100% of the 2009 Assessed Values.
More on this in the next post showing the closings between these two time periods, and just before the credit was passed.
(required disclosure) Information in charts is not compiled or verified by NWMLS.
ARDELL
DellaLoggia
On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle.
Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com
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