Why do we run stats?  Because it is important to check "Perception vs. Reality" from time to time.  Even people like me who work in the real estate industry day in and day out, can miss a market segment's performance level, unless we study the real facts from time to time.

What I have found so far, is that lumping any of the separate market segments together, even Bellevue, Redmond and Kirkland, cities you would expect to follow the same basic market trend, gives unclear results.  You have to separate everything down to total relevancy levels.  Before I switch to doing Online CMA's for each Zip Code and market segment of each Zip Code, here are some stats I felt were important to me.  For what it's worth, I will post them here for others, but they are likely more important to a real estate professional than a consumer.

Two market segments stand out for all three cities.  The condo market from $200,000 to $400,000 and the Single Family Home market from $400,000 to $600,000.

Using Closed sales YTD, the highest number of sales was in Bellevue, 491 single family residences priced between $400,000 and $600,000.

Second at 466 sales was Kirkland Condos priced between $200,000 and $400,000.

Right behind would be Bellevue Condos in the same price range at 448 sales.

Then back to the single family residences from $400,000 to $600,000 with Kirkland at 403 and Redmond at 409.

Last in the range would be Redmond condos between $200,000 and $400,000 at 389 sales.

In the next several articles, I will be tracking the sales and inventory on the Eastside.  Since I will be analyzing the Eastside market by Zip Code, here is a Zip Code key of the areas I will be tracking.  The home above is one purchased by one of my clients in Union Hill, Redmond 98053.  Great clients and great house.

Bellevue: 98004,98005,98006,98007,98008,98009

Bothell: 98011

Kenmore: 98028

Kirkland: 98033 and 98034

Medina: 98039

Mercer Island: 98040

Redmond: 98052 and 98053

Woodinville 98072

Yesterday someone asked that I update the stats from THIS POST. 

Since we are past the year half mark, I will call OVERSUPPLY, any category with

 more FOR SALE than STI + PENDING + SOLD YTD.

OVER FIVE MILLION - 42 FOR SALE - 0 STI - 3 PENDING - 8 SOLD YTD (OVERSUPPLY)

$4M TO $5M - 23 FOR SALE - 2 STI - 5 PENDING - **8 SOLD YTD (OVERSUPPLY)

$3M TO $4M - 67 FOR SALE - 2 STI - 10 PENDING - 22 SOLD (OVERSUPPLY)

$2M TO $3M - 183 FOR SALE - 17 STI - 22 PENDING - 87 SOLD (OVERSUPPLY)

$1.75M  to $2M - 115 FOR SALE - 11 STI - 34 PENDING - 86 SOLD YTD

$1.5m TO $1.75m - *176 FOR SALE - 15 STI - 37 PENDING - 106 SOLD YTD (OVERSUPPLY)

$1.25M TO $1.5M - 247 FOR SALE - 20 STI - 68 PENDING - 216 SOLD YTD

$1.1M TO $1.25M - 189 FOR SALE - 11 STI - 54 PENDING - 187 SOLD YTD

$1M TO $1.1M - 101 FOR SALE - 9 STI - 33 PENDING - 100 SOLD YTD

Based on my observations of actual homes on market, I think the OVERSUPPLY in the $1.5 million to $1.75 million is being created simply because some people who should be in the category below $1.25M to $1.50M) are overpriced, which is throwing off the stats.  If you add these two categories together there is *No "real" OVERSUPPLY under $2 Million. 

That is the true purpose of running stats in this manner.  We can see from these stats, that some owners priced at $1.5 or slightly higher need to reduce their prices below $1.5 for the market to be entirely in balance under $2 million.

At the very high end you will always have more sellers than buyers, because over a certain price people will prefer to buy tear downs and build their own homes, before buying someone else's $Five Million Dollar home.  Same as new car vs. used car.

*Note that I have used the same method so that duplications are standardized, though not eradicated.  An agent will sometimes show a property as being in two different areas even though a property technically cannot exist in two places at the same time.  For instance, a property in Juanita might show as both Juanita (area 600) and Kirkland (area 560) since Juanita is "in" Kirkland.  Also, since I compile the stats using $3 mil to $4 mil and then $2 mil to $3 mil, a property at exactly $3mil would show in both categories.  Since we are looking for the up and down trends, these built in duplications should not affect the assumptions made generally from the stats.

I decided to go with YTD on the solds rather than 6 mos so when we are finished at year end, we have true 2006 figures.  In the original post I went a true 6 mos back into December of 2005.  As of today YTD would be a tad over 6 mos.

These are for all of King County compiled via NWMLS by hand.  Not by using the mls stat feature.  I do a preview count of every single sub-segment noted, which involves 32 separate and distinct searches. The mls will only go up to 250, so as the number grows in the sold between $1 mil and $1.25 mil, I need to break out into two categories of less than 250 homes.

**Of special note, the solds in the original post for 4 to 5 mil were obviously out of whack, so I edited the original post to change 22 sold to ? sold.  Since only 8 have sold YTD, that number must have included all statuses for that category or else there were a lot of them at year end of 2005.  Let's track it forward from 8 and disregard the original 22.

As with all stats, there are many ways to compile them.  As long as we stay with apples to apples, we are safe as long as we are tracking the trend and not being anal about the actual houses involved.  To remove the duplications for purity sake, would not be worth the time spent viewing each and every property to remove them.

I just received the email below from Pacific Northwest Title Company.  I thought it was interesting.  Hope you do too.

Here's a look at the last month's listings by county:

King County reported 6,489 single-family homes for sale. That's an increase of 951 from June 2005 and 462 from May.

Snohomish County had 3,483 detached homes on the market last month, up from 2,747 a year earlier and 3,255 in May.

In Pierce County, 5,098 single-family homes were available last month, up 1,634 from last June and 381 from May.

Mercer Island's median single-family home price is $998,250 — making it the county's second-most-expensive area.

In Pierce County, 5,098 single-family homes were available last month, up 1,634 from last June and 381 from May.

Snohomish County had 3,483 detached homes on the market last month, up from 2,747 a year earlier and 3,255 in May.

King County reported 6,489 single-family homes for sale. That's an increase of 951 from June 2005 and 462 from May.

Others in the top five are West Bellevue (median of $1.187 million), Queen Anne/Magnolia ($699,950), South Bellevue ($635,500) and Redmond/Carnation ($599,950).

One of the main reasons I find this most interesting is we know sales are down, but the above dispells the myth that sales are down because inventory is down, meaning you can't sell more if more are not for sale.  The above stats say that there are in fact MORE for sale, not less.  I will have to hand count the second quarter and compare that to the first quarter of this year and the second quarter of last year, to fully answer this question.

Stay tuned...I'll try to report those stats by the end of the week.

Last month I started a tracking of homes for sale at present and sold since the first of the year, that are priced over a million dollars.  At that time I promised to update the figures at the beginning of each month.

As of today, the number Actively For Sale has dropped by only 2, down to 121 from 123.  But 31 more have closed with the total at 91 vs. 60 and an additional 45 in escrow. 

So, as expected, the last 30 to 40 days have had 50% as many sales over a $million as the first five months, but more have come on market to replace the ones sold.

Let's add a component to make it more interesting.  Of those 121 for sale, 88 are over $1.3 million and 67 are over $1.5 million.  49 of the 91 sold are over $1.3 million and only 29 are over $1.5 million.  A whopping 42 of the 45 in escrow are over $1.3 million, with 27 of those over 1.5 million.

I have noticed recently that many of the homes that stay on market for longer than the average days on market are homes where the bedrooms are positioned "awkwardly" in the home. 

A four bedroom home with two bedrooms above the main living level and two bedrooms under the main living level, or one bedroom on the second level, one on the main level and two in the lower level. This is more common in homes with views than in homes without views.  The master bedroom is often placed where there is an excellent view at the top level of the home with the best view, and is sometimes all master suite on the top level.  This puts all remaining bedrooms on a different floor than the master suite.

For people with grown children or for divorced people who have a new partner in life that is not the parent of the children, who are older and visit rather than live in the home full time, this can be a perfect configuration of space.  But for someone with a two year old and a baby on the way, having a small child in a bedroom two floors below the master suite, just wouldn't work.

Homes with only the master suite on top in the view corridor, can end up being a great bargain as well as a great home for the right person.  Often sellers price these homes based on a price per square foot comparing the home to neighbors who have 3 or 4  bedrooms up.  Consequently the home stays on market for a longer period of time, as it is overpriced for its style and is not discounted property for the "awkwardness" of the bedroom placement. 

Waiting for "the right person" to come along is all well and good, but don't expect the house to sell for the same price as your neighbors, given the diminished buyer pool.

I managed to post an entry to Rain City Guide on quarter baths.   I have two offers to present today on my Mt. Baker tudor, a listing coming on in Kirkland that we are putting the finishing touches on, an inspection negotiation in West Seattle and a new client for a new home with acreage on the Eastside and a townhome to sell in Ballard.  Busy all across the Lake! 

Hopefully I'll have some time over the weekend to add to all of my blogs.  It's good to be BACK!!!  And it's a gorgeous day in Kirkland!!