Throughout the year I have been tracking the market in this manner to see the changes in inventory and the "propensity of the market to sell". Since one would expect the market to sell unevenly from month to month, and more in spring and Summer than in Fall and Winter, I am using this "fan of sales" method to add more value to Absorption Rate statistics.

It sounds good in July to say "there are 3 months of inventory", but not accurate. Using the three months prior to determine absorption rates gives a false picture, as you can see from the below graph. Absorption Rate statistics is an area where hindsight does NOT have 20/20 vision.

Inventory today in this price range of $400,000 to $600,000 in King County is 3,997 on market vs. 3,386 on July 6, 2007. Properties currently in escrow of 1,030 compared to 1,657 on July 6, 2007 tells us that Inventory is up 18%, while pending sales are down 60%. Closed sales are down 45% comparing July to October.

In my next post I will compare July to October sales in this same price range for King County for 2005 to 2006 to 2007. One of the best things about "Stream of Consciousness Blogging" is that I don't know how these numbers will compare, and we all find out together.